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      20-year trends in cause-specific heart failure outcomes by sex, socioeconomic status, and place of diagnosis: a population-based study

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      , PhD a , * , , PhD a , , Prof, MD b , , PhD a , , Prof, PhD a , , Prof, PhD c , d , e , , Prof, PhD f , , Prof, PhD a , , Prof, PhD a
      The Lancet. Public Health
      Elsevier, Ltd

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          Summary

          Background

          Heart failure is an important public health issue affecting about 1 million people in the UK, but contemporary trends in cause-specific outcomes among different population groups are unknown.

          Methods

          In this retrospective, population-based study, we used the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink and Hospital Episodes Statistics databases to identify a cohort of patients who had a diagnosis of incident heart failure between Jan 1, 1998, and July 31, 2017. Patients were eligible for inclusion if they were aged 30 years or older with a first code for heart failure in their primary care or hospital record during the study period. We assessed cause-specific admission to hospital (ie, hospitalisation) and mortality, by age, sex, socioeconomic status, and place of diagnosis (ie, hospital vs community diagnosis). We calculated outcome rates separately for the first year (first-year rates) and for the second-year onwards (subsequent-year rates). Patients were followed up until death or study end. This study is registered with Clinical Practice Research Datalink Independent Scientific Advisory Committee, protocol number 18_037R.

          Findings

          We identified 88 416 individuals with incident heart failure over the study period, of whom 43 461 (49%) were female. The mean age was 77·8 years (SD 11·3) and median follow-up was 2·4 years (IQR 0·5 to 5·7). Age-adjusted first-year rates of hospitalisation increased by 28% for all-cause admissions, from 97·1 (95% CI 94·3 to 99·9) to 124·2 (120·9 to 127·5) per 100 person-years; by 28% for heart failure-specific admissions, from 17·2 (16·2 to 18·2) to 22·1 (20·9 to 23·2) per 100 person-years; and by 42% for non-cardiovascular admissions, from 59·2 (57·2 to 61·2) to 83·9 (81·3 to 86·5) per 100 person-years. 167 641 (73%) of 228 113 hospitalisations were for non-cardiovascular causes and annual rate increases were higher for women (3·9%, 95% CI 2·8 to 4·9) than for men (1·4%, 0·6 to 2·1; p<0·0001); and for patients diagnosed with heart failure in hospital (2·4%, 1·4 to 3·3) than those diagnosed in the community (1·2%, 0·3 to 2·2). Annual increases in hospitalisation due to heart failure were 2·6% (1·9 to 3·4) for women compared with stable rates in men (0·6%, −0·9 to 2·1), and 1·6% (0·6 to 2·6) for the most deprived group compared with stable rates for the most affluent group (1·2%, −0·3 to 2·8). A significantly higher risk of all-cause hospitalisation was found for the most deprived than for the most affluent (incident rate ratio 1·34, 95% CI 1·32 to 1·35) and for the hospital-diagnosed group than for the community-diagnosed group (1·76, 1·73 to 1·80). Age-adjusted first-year rates of all-cause mortality decreased by 6% from 24·5 (95% CI 23·4 to 39·2) to 23·0 (22·0 to 24·1) per 100 person-years. Annual change in mortality was −1·4% (95% CI −2·3 to −0·5) in men but was stable for women (0·3%, −0·5 to 1·1), and −2·7% (–3·2 to −2·2) for the community-diagnosed group compared with −1·1% (–1·8 to −0·4) in the hospital-diagnosed group (p<0·0001). A significantly higher risk of all-cause mortality was seen in the most deprived group than in the most affluent group (hazard ratio 1·08, 95% CI 1·05 to 1·11) and in the hospital-diagnosed group than in the community-diagnosed group (1·55, 1·53 to 1·58).

          Interpretation

          Tailored management strategies and specialist care for patients with heart failure are needed to address persisting and increasing inequalities for men, the most deprived, and for those who are diagnosed with heart failure in hospital, and to address the worrying trends in women.

          Funding

          Wellcome Trust.

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          Most cited references21

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          Epidemiology and risk profile of heart failure.

          Heart failure (HF) is a major public health issue, with a prevalence of over 5.8 million in the USA, and over 23 million worldwide, and rising. The lifetime risk of developing HF is one in five. Although promising evidence shows that the age-adjusted incidence of HF may have plateaued, HF still carries substantial morbidity and mortality, with 5-year mortality that rival those of many cancers. HF represents a considerable burden to the health-care system, responsible for costs of more than $39 billion annually in the USA alone, and high rates of hospitalizations, readmissions, and outpatient visits. HF is not a single entity, but a clinical syndrome that may have different characteristics depending on age, sex, race or ethnicity, left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) status, and HF etiology. Furthermore, pathophysiological differences are observed among patients diagnosed with HF and reduced LVEF compared with HF and preserved LVEF, which are beginning to be better appreciated in epidemiological studies. A number of risk factors, such as ischemic heart disease, hypertension, smoking, obesity, and diabetes, among others, have been identified that both predict the incidence of HF as well as its severity. In this Review, we discuss key features of the epidemiology and risk profile of HF.
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            Outcome of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction in a population-based study.

            The importance of heart failure with preserved ejection fraction is increasingly recognized. We conducted a study to evaluate the epidemiologic features and outcomes of patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction and to compare the findings with those from patients who had heart failure with reduced ejection fraction. From April 1, 1999, through March 31, 2001, we studied 2802 patients admitted to 103 hospitals in the province of Ontario, Canada, with a discharge diagnosis of heart failure whose ejection fraction had also been assessed. The patients were categorized in three groups: those with an ejection fraction of less than 40 percent (heart failure with reduced ejection fraction), those with an ejection fraction of 40 to 50 percent (heart failure with borderline ejection fraction), and those with an ejection fraction of more than 50 percent (heart failure with preserved ejection fraction). Two groups were studied in detail: those with an ejection fraction of less than 40 percent and those with an ejection fraction of more than 50 percent. The main outcome measures were death within one year and readmission to the hospital for heart failure. Thirty-one percent of the patients had an ejection fraction of more than 50 percent. Patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction were more likely to be older and female and to have a history of hypertension and atrial fibrillation. The presenting history and clinical examination findings were similar for the two groups. The unadjusted mortality rates for patients with an ejection fraction of more than 50 percent were not significantly different from those for patients with an ejection fraction of less than 40 percent at 30 days (5 percent vs. 7 percent, P=0.08) and at 1 year (22 percent vs. 26 percent, P=0.07); the adjusted one-year mortality rates were also not significantly different in the two groups (hazard ratio, 1.13; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.94 to 1.36; P=0.18). The rates of readmission for heart failure and of in-hospital complications did not differ between the two groups. Among patients presenting with new-onset heart failure, a substantial proportion had an ejection fraction of more than 50 percent. The survival of patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction was similar to that of patients with reduced ejection fraction. Copyright 2006 Massachusetts Medical Society.
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              Trends in heart failure incidence and survival in a community-based population.

              The epidemic of heart failure has yet to be fully investigated, and data on incidence, survival, and sex-specific temporal trends in community-based populations are limited. To test the hypothesis that the incidence of heart failure has declined and survival after heart failure diagnosis has improved over time but that secular trends have diverged by sex. Population-based cohort study using the resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project conducted in Olmsted County, Minnesota. Patients were 4537 Olmsted County residents (57% women; mean [SD] age, 74 [14] years) with a diagnosis of heart failure between 1979 and 2000. Framingham criteria and clinical criteria were used to validate the diagnosis Incidence of heart failure and survival after heart failure diagnosis. The incidence of heart failure was higher among men (378/100 000 persons; 95% confidence interval [CI], 361-395 for men; 289/100 000 persons; 95% CI, 277-300 for women) and did not change over time among men or women. After a mean follow-up of 4.2 years (range, 0-23.8 years), 3347 deaths occurred, including 1930 among women and 1417 among men. Survival after heart failure diagnosis was worse among men than women (relative risk, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.24-1.43) but overall improved over time (5-year age-adjusted survival, 43% in 1979-1984 vs 52% in 1996-2000, P<.001). However, men and younger persons experienced larger survival gains, contrasting with less or no improvement for women and elderly persons. In this community-based cohort, the incidence of heart failure has not declined during 2 decades, but survival after onset of heart failure has increased overall, with less improvement among women and elderly persons.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Lancet Public Health
                Lancet Public Health
                The Lancet. Public Health
                Elsevier, Ltd
                2468-2667
                31 July 2019
                August 2019
                31 July 2019
                : 4
                : 8
                : e406-e420
                Affiliations
                [a ]Diabetes Research Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester, UK
                [b ]NIHR Leicester Biomedical Research Centre, Cardiovascular Research Centre, Glenfield General Hospital, Leicester University, Leicester, UK
                [c ]National Heart Centre, Duke-NUS Medical School, Singapore
                [d ]University Medical Centre Groningen, Groningen, Netherlands
                [e ]The George Institute for Global Health, Newton, NSW, Australia
                [f ]Keele Cardiovascular Research Group, Centre for Prognosis Research, Keele University, Staffordshire, UK
                Author notes
                [* ]Correspondence to: Dr Claire A Lawson, Diabetes Research Centre, University of Leicester, Leicester LE5 4PW, UK cl417@ 123456leicester.ac.uk
                Article
                S2468-2667(19)30108-2
                10.1016/S2468-2667(19)30108-2
                6686076
                31376859
                3824d7ef-91b9-4202-85c2-208846e85d76
                © 2019 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an Open Access article under the CC BY 4.0 license

                This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).

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