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      Predicting High-Grade Cancer at Ten-Core Prostate Biopsy Using Four Kallikrein Markers Measured in Blood in the ProtecT Study

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          Abstract

          Background:

          Many men with elevated prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels in serum do not have aggressive prostate cancer and undergo unnecessary biopsy. Retrospective studies using cryopreserved serum suggest that four kallikrein markers can predict biopsy outcome.

          Methods:

          Free, intact and total PSA, and kallikrein-related peptidase 2 were measured in cryopreserved blood from 6129 men with elevated PSA (≥3.0ng/mL) participating in the prospective, randomized trial Prostate Testing for Cancer and Treatment. Marker levels from 4765 men providing anticoagulated plasma were incorporated into statistical models to predict any-grade and high-grade (Gleason score ≥7) prostate cancer at 10-core biopsy. The models were corrected for optimism by 10-fold cross validation and independently validated using markers measured in serum from 1364 men. All statistical tests were two-sided.

          Results:

          The four kallikreins enhanced prostate cancer detection compared with PSA and age alone. Area under the curve (AUC) for the four kallikreins was 0.719 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.704 to 0.734) vs 0.634 (95% CI = 0.617 to 0.651, P < .001) for PSA and age alone for any-grade cancer, and 0.820 (95% CI = 0.802 to 0.838) vs 0.738 (95% CI = 0.716 to 0.761) for high-grade cancer. Using a 6% risk of high-grade cancer as an illustrative cutoff, for 1000 biopsied men with PSA levels of 3.0ng/mL or higher, the model would reduce the need for biopsy in 428 men, detect 119 high-grade cancers, and delay diagnosis of 14 of 133 high-grade cancers. Models exhibited excellent discrimination on independent validation among men with only serum samples available for analysis.

          Conclusions:

          A statistical model based on kallikrein markers was validated in a large prospective study and reduces unnecessary biopsies while delaying diagnosis of high-grade cancers in few men.

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          Most cited references 22

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          Mortality results from the Göteborg randomised population-based prostate-cancer screening trial.

          Prostate cancer is one of the leading causes of death from malignant disease among men in the developed world. One strategy to decrease the risk of death from this disease is screening with prostate-specific antigen (PSA); however, the extent of benefit and harm with such screening is under continuous debate. In December, 1994, 20,000 men born between 1930 and 1944, randomly sampled from the population register, were randomised by computer in a 1:1 ratio to either a screening group invited for PSA testing every 2 years (n=10,000) or to a control group not invited (n=10,000). Men in the screening group were invited up to the upper age limit (median 69, range 67-71 years) and only men with raised PSA concentrations were offered additional tests such as digital rectal examination and prostate biopsies. The primary endpoint was prostate-cancer specific mortality, analysed according to the intention-to-screen principle. The study is ongoing, with men who have not reached the upper age limit invited for PSA testing. This is the first planned report on cumulative prostate-cancer incidence and mortality calculated up to Dec 31, 2008. This study is registered as an International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial ISRCTN54449243. In each group, 48 men were excluded from the analysis because of death or emigration before the randomisation date, or prevalent prostate cancer. In men randomised to screening, 7578 (76%) of 9952 attended at least once. During a median follow-up of 14 years, 1138 men in the screening group and 718 in the control group were diagnosed with prostate cancer, resulting in a cumulative prostate-cancer incidence of 12.7% in the screening group and 8.2% in the control group (hazard ratio 1.64; 95% CI 1.50-1.80; p<0.0001). The absolute cumulative risk reduction of death from prostate cancer at 14 years was 0.40% (95% CI 0.17-0.64), from 0.90% in the control group to 0.50% in the screening group. The rate ratio for death from prostate cancer was 0.56 (95% CI 0.39-0.82; p=0.002) in the screening compared with the control group. The rate ratio of death from prostate cancer for attendees compared with the control group was 0.44 (95% CI 0.28-0.68; p=0.0002). Overall, 293 (95% CI 177-799) men needed to be invited for screening and 12 to be diagnosed to prevent one prostate cancer death. This study shows that prostate cancer mortality was reduced almost by half over 14 years. However, the risk of over-diagnosis is substantial and the number needed to treat is at least as high as in breast-cancer screening programmes. The benefit of prostate-cancer screening compares favourably to other cancer screening programs. The Swedish Cancer Society, the Swedish Research Council, and the National Cancer Institute. 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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            Diagnostic value of systematic biopsy methods in the investigation of prostate cancer: a systematic review.

            Several new extended prostate biopsy schemes (greater than 6 cores) have been proposed. We compared the cancer detection rates and complications of different extended prostate biopsy schemes for diagnostic evaluation in men scheduled for biopsy to identify the optimal scheme. In a systematic review we searched 13 electronic databases, screened relevant urological journals and the reference lists of included studies, and contacted experts. We included studies that compared different systematic prostate biopsy methods using sequential sampling or a randomized design in men scheduled for biopsy due to suspected prostate cancer. We pooled data using a random effects model when appropriate. We analyzed 87 studies with a total of 20,698 patients. We pooled data from 68 studies comparing a total of 94 extended schemes with the standard sextant scheme. An increasing number of cores were significantly associated with the cancer yield. Laterally directed cores increased the yield significantly (p = 0.003), whereas centrally directed cores did not. Schemes with 12 cores that took additional laterally directed cores detected 31% more cancers (95% CI 25 to 37) than the sextant scheme. Schemes with 18 to 24 cores did not detect significantly more cancers. Adverse events for schemes up to 12 cores were similar to those for the sextant pattern. Adverse event reporting was poor for schemes with 18 to 24 cores. Prostate biopsy schemes consisting of 12 cores that add laterally directed cores to the standard sextant scheme strike the balance between the cancer detection rate and adverse events. Taking more than 12 cores added no significant benefit.
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              A panel of kallikrein markers can reduce unnecessary biopsy for prostate cancer: data from the European Randomized Study of Prostate Cancer Screening in Göteborg, Sweden

              Background Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is widely used to detect prostate cancer. The low positive predictive value of elevated PSA results in large numbers of unnecessary prostate biopsies. We set out to determine whether a multivariable model including four kallikrein forms (total, free, and intact PSA, and human kallikrein 2 (hK2)) could predict prostate biopsy outcome in previously unscreened men with elevated total PSA. Methods The study cohort comprised 740 men in Göteborg, Sweden, undergoing biopsy during the first round of the European Randomized study of Screening for Prostate Cancer. We calculated the area-under-the-curve (AUC) for predicting prostate cancer at biopsy. AUCs for a model including age and PSA (the 'laboratory' model) and age, PSA and digital rectal exam (the 'clinical' model) were compared with those for models that also included additional kallikreins. Results Addition of free and intact PSA and hK2 improved AUC from 0.68 to 0.83 and from 0.72 to 0.84, for the laboratory and clinical models respectively. Using a 20% risk of prostate cancer as the threshold for biopsy would have reduced the number of biopsies by 424 (57%) and missed only 31 out of 152 low-grade and 3 out of 40 high-grade cancers. Conclusion Multiple kallikrein forms measured in blood can predict the result of biopsy in previously unscreened men with elevated PSA. A multivariable model can determine which men should be advised to undergo biopsy and which might be advised to continue screening, but defer biopsy until there was stronger evidence of malignancy.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                J Natl Cancer Inst
                J. Natl. Cancer Inst
                jnci
                jnci
                JNCI Journal of the National Cancer Institute
                Oxford University Press (US )
                0027-8874
                1460-2105
                July 2015
                11 April 2015
                11 April 2015
                : 107
                : 7
                Affiliations
                Affiliations of authors:Nuffield Department of Surgical Sciences, University of Oxford , UK (RJB, RK, LM, HL, FCH); Department of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center , New York, NY (DDS, AJV); Department of Cellular Pathology, Royal Victoria Infirmary , Newcastle upon Tyne, UK (MCR); School of Social and Community Medicine, University of Bristol , UK (MD); Department of Surgery, Urology Service, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center (PTS, HL); Department of Oncology, University of Cambridge , UK (DEN); Departments of Laboratory Medicine (Clinical Chemistry Service) and Medicine (Genitourinary Oncology Service), Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center , New York, NY (HL); Department of Laboratory Medicine and Clinical Sciences in Malmö, Lund University , Skåne University Hospital, Malmö, Sweden; and Institute of Biomedical Technology, University of Tampere , Finland (HL).
                Author notes
                * Authors contributed equally to this work.
                Correspondence to: Hans Lilja, MD, PhD, Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, 1275 York Avenue, New York, NY 10065 (e-mail: liljah@ 123456mskcc.org ).
                Article
                10.1093/jnci/djv095
                4554254
                25863334
                © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.

                This is an Open Access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/), which permits unrestricted reuse, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                Page count
                Pages: 6
                Categories
                Article

                Oncology & Radiotherapy

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