Path toward 100% renewable energy future and feasibility of power-to-gas technology in Nordic countries

Abstract

Ambitious target of reaching 100% renewable share of primary energy supply in Nordic countries by year 2050 is analysed by using TIMES-VTT energy system model. Role and feasibility of power-to-gas (P2G) technologies, producing methane (CH ₄) gas from surplus electricity, is analysed in context with high levels of wind and solar power. Three scenarios are set with varying constraints for the energy system and with objective to improve conditions for wind and solar power seasoned with P2G utilisation. In BASE scenario, non-renewable energy sources are phased out by a high fuel tax for year 2050. In LO-HH2, the authors exclude hydrogen-based transport and reduce imported biofuels. In LO-BIO, they decrease availability of biomass for energy and advanced biofuel production. Reaching 100% renewable target demands significant changes in energy system, especially in energy production and transport sectors. Transforming primary energy supply to renewable requires high level of electrification, but also bioenergy is essential for Finland and Sweden. Thus, P2G competes with biomass gasification technologies. Volatility of wind and solar power productions can be balanced by international trade. Main drivers for P2G are supply of synthetic gas to transport and industrial sectors, instead of acting as energy storage for surplus electricity.