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      Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

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          Abstract

          Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

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          Most cited references39

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          Future flood losses in major coastal cities

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            Ledipasvir and sofosbuvir for 8 or 12 weeks for chronic HCV without cirrhosis.

            High rates of sustained virologic response were observed among patients with hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection who received 12 weeks of treatment with the nucleotide polymerase inhibitor sofosbuvir combined with the NS5A inhibitor ledipasvir. This study examined 8 weeks of treatment with this regimen. In this phase 3, open-label study, we randomly assigned 647 previously untreated patients with HCV genotype 1 infection without cirrhosis to receive ledipasvir and sofosbuvir (ledipasvir-sofosbuvir) for 8 weeks, ledipasvir-sofosbuvir plus ribavirin for 8 weeks, or ledipasvir-sofosbuvir for 12 weeks. The primary end point was sustained virologic response at 12 weeks after the end of therapy. The rate of sustained virologic response was 94% (95% confidence interval [CI], 90 to 97) with 8 weeks of ledipasvir-sofosbuvir, 93% (95% CI, 89 to 96) with 8 weeks of ledipasvir-sofosbuvir plus ribavirin, and 95% (95% CI, 92 to 98) with 12 weeks of ledipasvir-sofosbuvir. As compared with the rate of sustained virologic response in the group that received 8 weeks of ledipasvir-sofosbuvir, the rate in the 12-week group was 1 percentage point higher (97.5% CI, -4 to 6) and the rate in the group that received 8 weeks of ledipasvir-sofosbuvir with ribavirin was 1 percentage point lower (95% CI, -6 to 4); these results indicated noninferiority of the 8-week ledipasvir-sofosbuvir regimen, on the basis of a noninferiority margin of 12 percentage points. Adverse events were more common in the group that received ribavirin than in the other two groups. No patient who received 8 weeks of only ledipasvir-sofosbuvir discontinued treatment owing to adverse events. Ledipasvir-sofosbuvir for 8 weeks was associated with a high rate of sustained virologic response among previously untreated patients with HCV genotype 1 infection without cirrhosis. No additional benefit was associated with the inclusion of ribavirin in the regimen or with extension of the duration of treatment to 12 weeks. (Funded by Gilead Sciences; ION-3 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01851330.).
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              Probabilistic 21st and 22nd century sea-level projections at a global network of tide-gauge sites

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                vitousek@uic.edu
                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2045-2322
                18 May 2017
                18 May 2017
                2017
                : 7
                : 1399
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2175 0319, GRID grid.185648.6, , University of Illinois at Chicago, ; Chicago, IL 60607 USA
                [2 ]US Geological Survey, Pacific Coastal & Marine Science Center, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 USA
                [3 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2188 0957, GRID grid.410445.0, , University of Hawaii at Manoa, ; Honolulu, HI 96822 USA
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1414-6476
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-9085-8470
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8607-7695
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-8057-4490
                Article
                1362
                10.1038/s41598-017-01362-7
                5437046
                28522843
                39739643-7c35-49c8-ad69-d651dc6c16c4
                © The Author(s) 2017

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 2 November 2016
                : 23 March 2017
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