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      Risk Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease in Type 2 Diabetes : A risk equation from the Swedish National Diabetes Register

      , MD, PHD 1 , , MD 2 , , MD, PHD 2 , , MD, PHD 3 , , MD, PHD 4 , , MD, PHD 2 , on behalf of the Swedish National Diabetes Register

      Diabetes Care

      American Diabetes Association

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          OBJECTIVE—Risk prediction models obtained in samples from the general population do not perform well in type 2 diabetic patients. Recently, 5-year risk estimates were proposed as being more accurate than 10-year risk estimates. This study presents a diabetes-specific equation for estimation of the absolute 5-year risk of first incident fatal/nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetic patients with use of A1C and clinical characteristics.

          RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—The study was based on 11,646 female and male patients, aged 18–70 years, from the Swedish National Diabetes Register with 1,482 first incident CVD events based on 58,342 person-years with mean follow-up of 5.64 years.

          RESULTS—This risk equation incorporates A1C, as in the UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine, and several clinical characteristics: onset age of diabetes, diabetes duration, sex, BMI, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and antihypertensive and lipid-reducing drugs. All predictors included were associated with the outcome ( P < 0.0001, except for BMI P = 0.0016) with Cox regression analysis. Calibration was excellent when assessed by comparing observed and predicted risk. Discrimination was sufficient, with a receiver operator curve statistic of 0.70. Mean 5-year risk of CVD in all patients was 12.0 ± 7.5%, whereas 54% of the patients had a 5-year risk ≥10%.

          CONCLUSIONS—This more simplified risk equation enables 5-year risk prediction of CVD based on easily available nonlaboratory predictors in clinical practice and A1C and was elaborated in a large observational study obtained from the normal patient population aged up to 70 years.

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          Most cited references 34

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          General cardiovascular risk profile for use in primary care: the Framingham Heart Study.

          Separate multivariable risk algorithms are commonly used to assess risk of specific atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, ie, coronary heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, peripheral vascular disease, and heart failure. The present report presents a single multivariable risk function that predicts risk of developing all CVD and of its constituents. We used Cox proportional-hazards regression to evaluate the risk of developing a first CVD event in 8491 Framingham study participants (mean age, 49 years; 4522 women) who attended a routine examination between 30 and 74 years of age and were free of CVD. Sex-specific multivariable risk functions ("general CVD" algorithms) were derived that incorporated age, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, treatment for hypertension, smoking, and diabetes status. We assessed the performance of the general CVD algorithms for predicting individual CVD events (coronary heart disease, stroke, peripheral artery disease, or heart failure). Over 12 years of follow-up, 1174 participants (456 women) developed a first CVD event. All traditional risk factors evaluated predicted CVD risk (multivariable-adjusted P<0.0001). The general CVD algorithm demonstrated good discrimination (C statistic, 0.763 [men] and 0.793 [women]) and calibration. Simple adjustments to the general CVD risk algorithms allowed estimation of the risks of each CVD component. Two simple risk scores are presented, 1 based on all traditional risk factors and the other based on non-laboratory-based predictors. A sex-specific multivariable risk factor algorithm can be conveniently used to assess general CVD risk and risk of individual CVD events (coronary, cerebrovascular, and peripheral arterial disease and heart failure). The estimated absolute CVD event rates can be used to quantify risk and to guide preventive care.
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            Estimation of ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Europe: the SCORE project.

            The SCORE project was initiated to develop a risk scoring system for use in the clinical management of cardiovascular risk in European clinical practice. The project assembled a pool of datasets from 12 European cohort studies, mainly carried out in general population settings. There were 20,5178 persons (88,080 women and 11,7098 men) representing 2.7 million person years of follow-up. There were 7934 cardiovascular deaths, of which 5652 were deaths from coronary heart disease. Ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease was calculated using a Weibull model in which age was used as a measure of exposure time to risk rather than as a risk factor. Separate estimation equations were calculated for coronary heart disease and for non-coronary cardiovascular disease. These were calculated for high-risk and low-risk regions of Europe. Two parallel estimation models were developed, one based on total cholesterol and the other on total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio. The risk estimations are displayed graphically in simple risk charts. Predictive value of the risk charts was examined by applying them to persons aged 45-64; areas under ROC curves ranged from 0.71 to 0.84. The SCORE risk estimation system offers direct estimation of total fatal cardiovascular risk in a format suited to the constraints of clinical practice.
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              Effect of a multifactorial intervention on mortality in type 2 diabetes.

              Intensified multifactorial intervention - with tight glucose regulation and the use of renin-angiotensin system blockers, aspirin, and lipid-lowering agents - has been shown to reduce the risk of nonfatal cardiovascular disease among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus and microalbuminuria. We evaluated whether this approach would have an effect on the rates of death from any cause and from cardiovascular causes. In the Steno-2 Study, we randomly assigned 160 patients with type 2 diabetes and persistent microalbuminuria to receive either intensive therapy or conventional therapy; the mean treatment period was 7.8 years. Patients were subsequently followed observationally for a mean of 5.5 years, until December 31, 2006. The primary end point at 13.3 years of follow-up was the time to death from any cause. Twenty-four patients in the intensive-therapy group died, as compared with 40 in the conventional-therapy group (hazard ratio, 0.54; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.32 to 0.89; P=0.02). Intensive therapy was associated with a lower risk of death from cardiovascular causes (hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.19 to 0.94; P=0.04) and of cardiovascular events (hazard ratio, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.25 to 0.67; P<0.001). One patient in the intensive-therapy group had progression to end-stage renal disease, as compared with six patients in the conventional-therapy group (P=0.04). Fewer patients in the intensive-therapy group required retinal photocoagulation (relative risk, 0.45; 95% CI, 0.23 to 0.86; P=0.02). Few major side effects were reported. In at-risk patients with type 2 diabetes, intensive intervention with multiple drug combinations and behavior modification had sustained beneficial effects with respect to vascular complications and on rates of death from any cause and from cardiovascular causes. ( number, NCT00320008.) Copyright 2008 Massachusetts Medical Society.

                Author and article information

                Diabetes Care
                Diabetes Care
                American Diabetes Association
                October 2008
                : 31
                : 10
                : 2038-2043
                [1 ]Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Family Medicine and Clinical Epidemiology, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
                [2 ]Department of Medicine, Sahlgrenska University Hospital, Gothenburg University, Gothenburg, Sweden
                [3 ]Department of Public Health and Caring Sciences, Geriatrics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
                [4 ]Department of Clinical Sciences, University Hospital, Lund University, Malmö, Sweden
                Author notes

                Corresponding author: Jan Cederholm, jan.cederholm@

                Copyright © 2008, American Diabetes Association

                Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered. See for details.

                Cardiovascular and Metabolic Risk

                Endocrinology & Diabetes


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