Predictors of attempts to stop smoking and their success in adult general population samples: a systematic review :  Predictors of quit attempts and success

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Abstract

To identify the predictors of attempts to stop smoking and the predictors of quit attempt success in adult general population samples. We performed an electronic search of EMBASE, Pubmed, Web of Science, PsychINFO and the Cochrane Tobacco Addiction Group specialized register for articles that examined, in prospective adult general population samples, predictors of quit attempts and the success of quit attempts. Experts were contacted for knowledge of other relevant studies. Eight studies met the inclusion criteria and results were extracted independently by two researchers. There was considerable methodological heterogeneity between studies. Motivational factors dominated the prediction of quit attempts, whereas only cigarette dependence consistently predicted success after an attempt had been made. Social grade also appeared to predict success but was only examined in two studies. None of the other socio-demographic factors consistently predicted making a quit attempt or success. Population-level studies from a number of countries show that past quit attempts and measures of motivation to stop are highly predictive of quit attempts, whereas only measures of dependence are consistently predictive of success of those attempts. Gender, age and marital status and educational level are not related consistently to quit attempts or quit success across countries. © 2011 The Authors, Addiction © 2011 Society for the Study of Addiction.

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Mortality in relation to smoking: 50 years' observations on male British doctors.

Richard Doll, Richard Peto, Jillian Boreham … (2004)

To compare the hazards of cigarette smoking in men who formed their habits at different periods, and the extent of the reduction in risk when cigarette smoking is stopped at different ages. Prospective study that has continued from 1951 to 2001. United Kingdom. 34 439 male British doctors. Information about their smoking habits was obtained in 1951, and periodically thereafter; cause specific mortality was monitored for 50 years. Overall mortality by smoking habit, considering separately men born in different periods. The excess mortality associated with smoking chiefly involved vascular, neoplastic, and respiratory diseases that can be caused by smoking. Men born in 1900-1930 who smoked only cigarettes and continued smoking died on average about 10 years younger than lifelong non-smokers. Cessation at age 60, 50, 40, or 30 years gained, respectively, about 3, 6, 9, or 10 years of life expectancy. The excess mortality associated with cigarette smoking was less for men born in the 19th century and was greatest for men born in the 1920s. The cigarette smoker versus non-smoker probabilities of dying in middle age (35-69) were 42% nu 24% (a twofold death rate ratio) for those born in 1900-1909, but were 43% nu 15% (a threefold death rate ratio) for those born in the 1920s. At older ages, the cigarette smoker versus non-smoker probabilities of surviving from age 70 to 90 were 10% nu 12% at the death rates of the 1950s (that is, among men born around the 1870s) but were 7% nu 33% (again a threefold death rate ratio) at the death rates of the 1990s (that is, among men born around the 1910s). A substantial progressive decrease in the mortality rates among non-smokers over the past half century (due to prevention and improved treatment of disease) has been wholly outweighed, among cigarette smokers, by a progressive increase in the smoker nu non-smoker death rate ratio due to earlier and more intensive use of cigarettes. Among the men born around 1920, prolonged cigarette smoking from early adult life tripled age specific mortality rates, but cessation at age 50 halved the hazard, and cessation at age 30 avoided almost all of it.

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Outcome criteria in smoking cessation trials: proposal for a common standard.

Robert E West, Peter Hajek, Lindsay Stead … (2005)

Smoking cessation treatment is now integrated into many health-care systems and a major research effort is under way to improve current success rates. Until now results from randomized clinical trials have been reported in many different ways, leading to problems of interpretation. We propose six standard criteria comprising the 'Russell Standard' (RS). These criteria are applicable to trials of cessation aids where participants have a defined target quit date and there is face-to-face contact with researchers or clinic staff, as follows. (1) Follow-up for 6 months (RS6) or 12 months (RS12) from the target quit date or the end of a predefined 'grace period'; (2) self-report of smoking abstinence over the whole follow-up period allowing up to five cigarettes in total; (3) biochemical verification of abstinence at least at the 6-month or 12-month follow-up point; (4) use of an 'intention-to-treat' approach in which data from all randomized smokers are included in the analysis unless they have died or moved to an untraceable address (participants who are included in the analysis are counted as smokers if their smoking status at the final follow-up cannot be determined); (5) following-up 'protocol violators' and using their true smoking status in the analysis; and (6) collecting follow-up data blind to smokers' allocation to trial group. We believe that these criteria provide the best compromise between practicability and surrogacy for long-term cessation and will enable meaningful comparison between studies. There may be good reasons why other outcome criteria would also be reported, and studies that involve interventions with special groups or where there is no designated target quit date or face to face contact would need to adapt these criteria accordingly.

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Individual-level predictors of cessation behaviours among participants in the International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey.

A. Hyland, R Borland, Q. Li … (2006)

The International Tobacco Control (ITC) Four Country Survey (ITC-4) is a prospective cohort study designed to evaluate the psychosocial and behavioural impact of national-level tobacco control policies enacted in the Australia, Canada, the UK, and the USA. Wave 1 of ITC-4 survey was conducted between October 2002 and December 2002. Wave 2 survey was conducted between May 2003 and August 2003. To test for individual-level predictors of smoking cessation behaviours (that is, quit attempts and smoking cessation) among cigarette smokers in the ITC Four Country Study measured between Wave 1 and Wave 2. This set of predictors will serve as the base for evaluating the added effect of tobacco control policies and other factors. Respondents included in this study are 6682 adult current smokers in the Wave 1 main survey who completed the Wave 2 follow-up (1665 were in Canada, 1329 were in the USA, 1837 were in the UK and 1851 were in Australia). Factors predictive of making a quit attempt included intention to quit, making a quit attempt in the previous year, longer duration of past quit attempts, less nicotine dependence, more negative attitudes about smoking, and younger age. Lower levels of nicotine dependence were the main factor that predicted future cessation among those that made a quit attempt. Intention to quit and other cognitive variables were associated with quit attempts, but not cessation. Behavioural variables related to task difficulty, including measures of dependence, predicted both making attempts and their success. Predictors of making quit attempts and cessation were similar for each of the four countries, but there were some differences in predictors of success.