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      Discharge Heart Rate After Hospitalization for Myocardial Infarction and Long‐Term Mortality in 2 US Registries

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          Abstract

          Background

          Although admission heart rate predicts higher mortality after acute myocardial infarction ( AMI), less is known about discharge heart rate. We tested the hypothesis that higher discharge heart rate after AMI is related to increased long‐term mortality independent of admission heart rate, and assessed whether β blockers modify this relationship.

          Methods and Results

          In 2 prospective US multicenter registries of AMI, we evaluated the associations of discharge and admission heart rate with 3‐year mortality using Cox models. Among 6576 patients with AMI, discharge heart rate was modestly associated with initial heart rate ( r=0.28), comorbidities, and infarct severity. In this cohort, 10.7% did not receive β blockers at discharge. After full adjustment for demographic, psychosocial, and clinical covariates, discharge heart rate (hazard ratio [HR]=1.14 per 10 beats per minute [bpm]; 95% CI=1.07–1.21 per 10 bpm) was more strongly associated with risk of death than admission heart rate (HR=1.05 per 10 bpm; 95% CI=1.02–1.09 per 10 bpm) when both were entered in the same model ( P=0.043 for comparison). There was a significant interaction between discharge heart rate and β‐blocker use ( P=0.004) on mortality, wherein risk of death was markedly higher among those with high discharge heart rate and not on β blockers (HR=1.35 per 10 bpm; 95% CI=1.19–1.53 per 10 bpm) versus those with a high discharge heart rate and on β blockers at discharge (HR=1.10 per 10 bpm; 95% CI=1.03–1.17 per 10 bpm).

          Conclusions

          Higher discharge heart rate after AMI was more strongly associated with 3‐year mortality than admission heart rate, and the risk associated with higher discharge heart rate was modified by β blockers at discharge. These findings highlight opportunities for risk stratification and intervention that will require further investigation.

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          Most cited references21

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          Predictors of hospital mortality in the global registry of acute coronary events.

          Management of acute coronary syndromes (ACS) should be guided by an estimate of patient risk. To develop a simple model to assess the risk for in-hospital mortality for the entire spectrum of ACS treated in general clinical practice. A multivariable logistic regression model was developed using 11 389 patients (including 509 in-hospital deaths) with ACS with and without ST-segment elevation enrolled in the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) from April 1, 1999, through March 31, 2001. Validation data sets included a subsequent cohort of 3972 patients enrolled in GRACE and 12 142 in the Global Use of Strategies to Open Occluded Coronary Arteries IIb (GUSTO-IIb) trial. The following 8 independent risk factors accounted for 89.9% of the prognostic information: age (odds ratio [OR], 1.7 per 10 years), Killip class (OR, 2.0 per class), systolic blood pressure (OR, 1.4 per 20-mm Hg decrease), ST-segment deviation (OR, 2.4), cardiac arrest during presentation (OR, 4.3), serum creatinine level (OR, 1.2 per 1-mg/dL [88.4- micro mol/L] increase), positive initial cardiac enzyme findings (OR, 1.6), and heart rate (OR, 1.3 per 30-beat/min increase). The discrimination ability of the simplified model was excellent with c statistics of 0.83 in the derived database, 0.84 in the confirmation GRACE data set, and 0.79 in the GUSTO-IIb database. Across the entire spectrum of ACS and in general clinical practice, this model provides excellent ability to assess the risk for death and can be used as a simple nomogram to estimate risk in individual patients.
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            A validated prediction model for all forms of acute coronary syndrome: estimating the risk of 6-month postdischarge death in an international registry.

            Accurate estimation of risk for untoward outcomes after patients have been hospitalized for an acute coronary syndrome (ACS) may help clinicians guide the type and intensity of therapy. To develop a simple decision tool for bedside risk estimation of 6-month mortality in patients surviving admission for an ACS. A multinational registry, involving 94 hospitals in 14 countries, that used data from the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) to develop and validate a multivariable stepwise regression model for death during 6 months postdischarge. From 17,142 patients presenting with an ACS from April 1, 1999, to March 31, 2002, and discharged alive, 15,007 (87.5%) had complete 6-month follow-up and represented the development cohort for a model that was subsequently tested on a validation cohort of 7638 patients admitted from April 1, 2002, to December 31, 2003. All-cause mortality during 6 months postdischarge after admission for an ACS. The 6-month mortality rates were similar in the development (n = 717; 4.8%) and validation cohorts (n = 331; 4.7%). The risk-prediction tool for all forms of ACS identified 9 variables predictive of 6-month mortality: older age, history of myocardial infarction, history of heart failure, increased pulse rate at presentation, lower systolic blood pressure at presentation, elevated initial serum creatinine level, elevated initial serum cardiac biomarker levels, ST-segment depression on presenting electrocardiogram, and not having a percutaneous coronary intervention performed in hospital. The c statistics for the development and validation cohorts were 0.81 and 0.75, respectively. The GRACE 6-month postdischarge prediction model is a simple, robust tool for predicting mortality in patients with ACS. Clinicians may find it simple to use and applicable to clinical practice.
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              Predictors of outcome in patients with acute coronary syndromes without persistent ST-segment elevation. Results from an international trial of 9461 patients. The PURSUIT Investigators.

              Appropriate treatment policies should include an accurate estimate of a patient's baseline risk. Risk modeling to date has been underutilized in patients with acute coronary syndromes without persistent ST-segment elevation. We analyzed the relation between baseline characteristics and the 30-day incidence of death and the composite of death or myocardial (re)infarction in 9461 patients with acute coronary syndromes without persistent ST-segment elevation enrolled in the PURSUIT trial [Platelet glycoprotein IIb/IIIa in Unstable angina: Receptor Suppression Using Integrilin (eptifibatide) Therapy]. Variables examined included demographics, history, hemodynamic condition, and symptom duration. Risk models were created with multivariable logistic regression and validated by bootstrapping techniques. There was a 3.6% mortality rate and 11.4% infarction rate by 30 days. More than 20 significant predictors for mortality and for the composite end point were identified. The most important baseline determinants of death were age (adjusted chi(2)=95), heart rate (chi(2)=32), systolic blood pressure (chi(2)=20), ST-segment depression (chi(2)=20), signs of heart failure (chi(2)=18), and cardiac enzymes (chi(2)=15). Determinants of mortality were generally also predictive of death or myocardial (re)infarction. Differences were observed, however, in the relative prognostic importance of predictive variables for mortality alone or the composite end point; for example, sex was a more important determinant of the composite end point (chi(2)=21) than of death alone (chi(2)=10). The accuracy of the prediction of the composite end point was less than that of mortality (C-index 0.67 versus 0.81). The occurrence of adverse events after presentation with acute coronary syndromes is affected by multiple factors. These factors should be considered in the clinical decision-making process.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                jorge.kizer@ucsf.edu
                Journal
                J Am Heart Assoc
                J Am Heart Assoc
                10.1002/(ISSN)2047-9980
                JAH3
                ahaoa
                Journal of the American Heart Association: Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Disease
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                2047-9980
                29 January 2019
                05 February 2019
                : 8
                : 3 ( doiID: 10.1002/jah3.2019.8.issue-3 )
                : e010855
                Affiliations
                [ 1 ] New York‐Presbyterian Brooklyn Methodist Hospital Brooklyn NY
                [ 2 ] Saint Luke's Mid America Heart Institute Kansas City MO
                [ 3 ] Northwell Health New Hyde Park NY
                [ 4 ] Palo Alto Veterans Affairs Health Care System and Stanford School of Medicine Palo Alto CA
                [ 5 ] Montefiore Medical Center and Albert Einstein College of Medicine Bronx NY
                [ 6 ] San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System and University of California San Francisco San Francisco CA
                Author notes
                [*] [* ] Correspondence to: Jorge R. Kizer, MD, MSc, Cardiology Section, San Francisco Veterans Affairs Health Care System, 4150 Clement St, San Francisco, CA 94121. E‐mail: jorge.kizer@ 123456ucsf.edu
                Article
                JAH33842
                10.1161/JAHA.118.010855
                6405572
                30691334
                3c1da891-533c-435f-9b98-00e30a6b03dd
                © 2019 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited, the use is non‐commercial and no modifications or adaptations are made.

                History
                : 03 September 2018
                : 03 January 2019
                Page count
                Figures: 3, Tables: 2, Pages: 12, Words: 8713
                Funding
                Funded by: CV Therapeutics Inc
                Funded by: Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality
                Award ID: R01 HS11282‐01
                Funded by: National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute
                Award ID: K24 HL135413
                Categories
                Original Research
                Original Research
                Coronary Heart Disease
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                jah33842
                05 February 2019
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_NLMPMC version:5.5.8 mode:remove_FC converted:05.02.2019

                Cardiovascular Medicine
                β blocker,discharge,mortality,myocardial infarction,quality and outcomes,mortality/survival,acute coronary syndromes

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