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      The Gap between Estimated Incidence of End-Stage Renal Disease and Use of Therapy

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          Abstract

          Background

          Relatively few data exist on the burden of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) and use of renal replacement therapy (RRT)–a life-saving therapy–in developing regions. No study has quantified the proportion of patients who develop ESRD but are unable to access RRT.

          Methods

          We performed a comprehensive literature search to estimate use and annual initiation of RRT worldwide, and present these estimates according to World Bank regions. We also present estimates of survival and of etiology of diseases in patients undergoing RRT. Using data on prevalence of diabetes and hypertension, we modeled the incidence of ESRD related to these risk factors in order to quantify the gap between ESRD and use of RRT in developing regions.

          Results

          We find that 1.9 million patients are undergoing RRT worldwide, with continued use and annual initiation at 316 and 73 per million population respectively. RRT use correlates directly (Pearson’s r = 0.94) with regional income. Hemodialysis remains the dominant form of RRT but there is wide regional variation in its use. With the exception of the Latin American and Caribbean region, it appears that initiation of RRT in developing regions is restricted to fewer than a quarter of patients projected to develop ESRD. This results in at least 1.2 million premature deaths each year due to lack of access to RRT as a result of diabetes and elevated blood pressure and as many as 3.2 million premature deaths due to all causes of ESRD.

          Conclusion

          Thus, the majority of patients projected to reach ESRD due to diabetes or hypertension in developing regions are unable to access RRT; this gap will increase with rising prevalence of these risk factors worldwide.

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          Most cited references21

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          Global prevalence of diabetes: estimates for the year 2000 and projections for 2030.

          The goal of this study was to estimate the prevalence of diabetes and the number of people of all ages with diabetes for years 2000 and 2030. Data on diabetes prevalence by age and sex from a limited number of countries were extrapolated to all 191 World Health Organization member states and applied to United Nations' population estimates for 2000 and 2030. Urban and rural populations were considered separately for developing countries. The prevalence of diabetes for all age-groups worldwide was estimated to be 2.8% in 2000 and 4.4% in 2030. The total number of people with diabetes is projected to rise from 171 million in 2000 to 366 million in 2030. The prevalence of diabetes is higher in men than women, but there are more women with diabetes than men. The urban population in developing countries is projected to double between 2000 and 2030. The most important demographic change to diabetes prevalence across the world appears to be the increase in the proportion of people >65 years of age. These findings indicate that the "diabetes epidemic" will continue even if levels of obesity remain constant. Given the increasing prevalence of obesity, it is likely that these figures provide an underestimate of future diabetes prevalence.
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            National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5·4 million participants.

            Data for trends in blood pressure are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. However, few worldwide analyses of trends in blood pressure have been done. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean systolic blood pressure (SBP). We estimated trends and their uncertainties in mean SBP for adults 25 years and older in 199 countries and territories. We obtained data from published and unpublished health examination surveys and epidemiological studies (786 country-years and 5·4 million participants). For each sex, we used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate mean SBP by age, country, and year, accounting for whether a study was nationally representative. In 2008, age-standardised mean SBP worldwide was 128·1 mm Hg (95% uncertainty interval 126·7-129·4) in men and 124·4 mm Hg (123·0-125·9) in women. Globally, between 1980 and 2008, SBP decreased by 0·8 mm Hg per decade (-0·4 to 2·2, posterior probability of being a true decline=0·90) in men and 1·0 mm Hg per decade (-0·3 to 2·3, posterior probability=0·93) in women. Female SBP decreased by 3·5 mm Hg or more per decade in western Europe and Australasia (posterior probabilities ≥0·999). Male SBP fell most in high-income North America, by 2·8 mm Hg per decade (1·3-4·5, posterior probability >0·999), followed by Australasia and western Europe where it decreased by more than 2·0 mm Hg per decade (posterior probabilities >0·98). SBP rose in Oceania, east Africa, and south and southeast Asia for both sexes, and in west Africa for women, with the increases ranging 0·8-1·6 mm Hg per decade in men (posterior probabilities 0·72-0·91) and 1·0-2·7 mm Hg per decade for women (posterior probabilities 0·75-0·98). Female SBP was highest in some east and west African countries, with means of 135 mm Hg or greater. Male SBP was highest in Baltic and east and west African countries, where mean SBP reached 138 mm Hg or more. Men and women in western Europe had the highest SBP in high-income regions. On average, global population SBP decreased slightly since 1980, but trends varied significantly across regions and countries. SBP is currently highest in low-income and middle-income countries. Effective population-based and personal interventions should be targeted towards low-income and middle-income countries. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and WHO. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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              Blood pressure and end-stage renal disease in men.

              End-stage renal disease in the United States creates a large burden for both individuals and society as a whole. Efforts to prevent the condition require an understanding of modifiable risk factors. We assessed the development of end-stage renal disease through 1990 in 332,544 men, 35 to 57 years of age, who were screened between 1973 and 1975 for entry into the Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial (MRFIT). We used data from the national registry for treated end-stage renal disease of the Health Care Financing Administration and from records on death from renal disease from the National Death Index and the Social Security Administration. During an average of 16 years of follow-up, 814 subjects either died of end-stage renal disease or were treated for that condition (15.6 cases per 100,000 person-years of observation). A strong, graded relation between both systolic and diastolic blood pressure and end-stage renal disease was identified, independent of associations between the disease and age, race, income, use of medication for diabetes mellitus, history of myocardial infarction, serum cholesterol concentration, and cigarette smoking. As compared with men with an optimal level of blood pressure (systolic pressure or = 210 mm Hg or diastolic pressure > or = 120 mm Hg) was 22.1 (P < 0.001). These relations were not due to end-stage renal disease that occurred soon after screening and, in the 12,866 screened men who entered the MRFIT study, were not changed by taking into account the base-line serum creatinine concentration and urinary protein excretion. The estimated risk of end-stage renal disease associated with elevations of systolic pressure was greater than that linked with elevations of diastolic pressure when both variables were considered together. Elevations of blood pressure are a strong independent risk factor for end-stage renal disease; interventions to prevent the disease need to emphasize the prevention and control of both high-normal and high blood pressure.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                PLoS ONE
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, USA )
                1932-6203
                2013
                30 August 2013
                : 8
                : 8
                : e72860
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, Stanford University School of Medicine, Stanford, California, United States of America
                [2 ]Division of General Medicine, Brigham and Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
                [3 ]Cardiovascular Medicine, Brigham & Women’s Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, United States of America
                Fundación para la Prevención y el Control de las Enfermedades Crónicas No Transmisibles en América Latina (FunPRECAL), Argentina
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Conceived and designed the experiments: SA TG. Performed the experiments: SA TG. Analyzed the data: SA AB TG. Wrote the paper: SA AB TG.

                Article
                PONE-D-13-12306
                10.1371/journal.pone.0072860
                3758352
                24023651
                3d6086b9-2d4c-48b4-8be3-002c2aff1154
                Copyright @ 2013

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

                History
                : 15 March 2013
                : 13 July 2013
                Page count
                Pages: 8
                Funding
                Dr. Anand is supported by F32 DK 084697. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Research Article
                Mathematics
                Statistics
                Biostatistics
                Statistical Methods
                Medicine
                Clinical Research Design
                Statistical Methods
                Endocrinology
                Diabetic Endocrinology
                Epidemiology
                Clinical Epidemiology
                Global Health
                Nephrology
                Chronic Kidney Disease
                Dialysis
                Hypertension
                Renal Transplantation
                Non-Clinical Medicine
                Health Care Policy
                Health Risk Analysis
                Health Statistics

                Uncategorized
                Uncategorized

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