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      Zonificación del riesgo de tsunami en el centro-sur de Chile

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          Abstract

          Integrando modelación numérica de tsunamis, técnicas geomáticas y nuevos criterios desarrollados por la investigación del riesgo de tsunami, se desarrolla una metodología para zonificar riesgo y se aplica en un área costera del centro-sur de Chile. El método utiliza factores que inciden en el riesgo de tsunami, como parámetros hidrodinámicos de la amenaza y aspectos físicos y socioeconómicos de la vulnerabilidad. Los factores de riesgo son integrados mediante técnicas de Evaluación Multicriterio y Sistemas de Información Geográfica. Los resultados de la zonificación, evidencian cómo las características del lugar, su localización, el comportamiento diferenciado de la amenaza, y los mayores porcentajes de pobreza y su concentración, condicionan los niveles de riesgo. Esta información se transforma en la base para futuros estudios de planificación territorial, que permitan disminuir el riesgo de desastre por tsunami.

          Translated abstract

          Integrating tsunami numerical modeling, geomatics techniques and new criteria developed by the tsunami risk research, develops a methodology for risk zoning and applied in a coastal area in south-central Chile. The method uses factors that influence the tsunami risk, as hydrodynamic parameters of the threat and physical and socioeconomic aspects of vulnerability. Risk factors are integrated through multicriteria evaluation techniques and Geographic Information Systems. The zoning results show that the local characteristics and their location, together with the concentration of poverty levels, establish spatial differentiated risk levels. This information builds the basis for future applied studies in land use planning, which would reduce the risk of tsunami disaster.

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          Most cited references 44

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          Predecessors of the giant 1960 Chile earthquake.

          It is commonly thought that the longer the time since last earthquake, the larger the next earthquake's slip will be. But this logical predictor of earthquake size, unsuccessful for large earthquakes on a strike-slip fault, fails also with the giant 1960 Chile earthquake of magnitude 9.5 (ref. 3). Although the time since the preceding earthquake spanned 123 years (refs 4, 5), the estimated slip in 1960, which occurred on a fault between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, equalled 250-350 years' worth of the plate motion. Thus the average interval between such giant earthquakes on this fault should span several centuries. Here we present evidence that such long intervals were indeed typical of the last two millennia. We use buried soils and sand layers as records of tectonic subsidence and tsunami inundation at an estuary midway along the 1960 rupture. In these records, the 1960 earthquake ended a recurrence interval that had begun almost four centuries before, with an earthquake documented by Spanish conquistadors in 1575. Two later earthquakes, in 1737 and 1837, produced little if any subsidence or tsunami at the estuary and they therefore probably left the fault partly loaded with accumulated plate motion that the 1960 earthquake then expended.
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            Focal process of the great Chilean earthquake May 22, 1960

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              The 1960 Chilean earthquakes

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ND
                Journal
                rgeong
                Revista de geografía Norte Grande
                Rev. geogr. Norte Gd.
                Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile. Instituto de Geografía (Santiago )
                0718-3402
                December 2012
                : 0
                : 53
                : 7-21
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile Chile
                Article
                S0718-34022012000300001
                10.4067/S0718-34022012000300001

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                Product
                Product Information: SciELO Chile
                Categories
                GEOGRAPHY
                GEOGRAPHY, PHYSICAL

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