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      Development of a tool for hydroeletric reservoir operation with multiple uses considering effects of climate changes. Case study of Furnas HPP Translated title: Elaboração de uma ferramenta para operação de reservatórios hidrelétricos com usos múltiplos considerando efeitos de mudanças climáticas: Estudo de caso da UHE de Furnas

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          Abstract

          ABSTRACT The possible impact of climate change on the multiple uses that involve the hydro power plant of Furnas was one of the objectives of this study by proposing a methodological approach to mitigate these conflicts. The first stage of the study was to perform a time trend analysis oh hydrologic variables being identified significant increasing trends in some rain gauges not reflected in streamflow data in the study basin. For representation of the future climate the hydrological model (MGB-IPH) was used inputted by the global model HadCM3 and regional Eta model through the A1B scenario of the IPCC. If the climate changes scenarios are verified, the reservoir can be quickly dumped, however the improvement of a methodology that considers the determination of the length and transgression frequency of levels, conflicts over water use can be minimized without damage to power generation.

          Translated abstract

          RESUMO O possível impacto das mudanças climáticas sobre os usos múltiplos que envolvem a UHE de Furnas foi um dos objetivos deste trabalho, sendo apresentado uma abordagem metodológica para mitigação destes conflitos. A primeira etapa foi realizar análise de tendência temporal das variáveis hidrológicas, sendo identificadas tendências de aumento significativas em alguns postos pluviométricos, não refletidas nos dados fluviométricos na bacia de estudo. Para representação do clima futuro, foi utilizado o modelo hidrológico (MGB-IPH), alimentado pelo modelo global HadCM3 e regional Eta por meio do cenário A1B do IPCC. Caso os cenários de mudanças do climas se verifiquem, o reservatório pode esvaziar-se intensamente; contudo pelo aprimoramento de uma metodologia que considera a fixação da duração e frequência de transgressão de níveis, os conflitos pelo uso da água podem ser minimizados, sem prejuízos a geração de energia.

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            A Non-Parametric Approach to the Change-Point Problem

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              Scepticism and uncertainty about climate change: Dimensions, determinants and change over time

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Journal
                rbrh
                RBRH
                RBRH
                Associação Brasileira de Recursos Hídricos
                2318-0331
                June 2016
                : 21
                : 2
                : 300-313
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Universidade Estadual de Campinas Brazil
                [2 ] Universidade Federal de Itajubá Brazil
                Article
                S2318-03312016000200300
                10.21168/rbrh.v21n2.p300-313
                3eab19c5-cd93-451c-a9fd-3005f8f05844

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

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                SciELO Brazil

                Self URI (journal page): http://www.scielo.br/scielo.php?script=sci_serial&pid=2318-0331&lng=en
                Categories
                ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL
                ENGINEERING, GEOLOGICAL
                ENGINEERING, MARINE
                ENGINEERING, OCEAN

                Environmental engineering
                Reservatórios,MGB-IPH,Testes não Paramétricos,Furnas,Reservoirs,Nonparametric test

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