The metabolic syndrome, a concurrence of disturbed glucose and insulin metabolism,
overweight and abdominal fat distribution, mild dyslipidemia, and hypertension, is
associated with subsequent development of type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular
disease (CVD). Despite its high prevalence, little is known of the prospective association
of the metabolic syndrome with cardiovascular and overall mortality.
To assess the association of the metabolic syndrome with cardiovascular and overall
mortality using recently proposed definitions and factor analysis.
The Kuopio Ischaemic Heart Disease Risk Factor Study, a population-based, prospective
cohort study of 1209 Finnish men aged 42 to 60 years at baseline (1984-1989) who were
initially without CVD, cancer, or diabetes. Follow-up continued through December 1998.
Death due to coronary heart disease (CHD), CVD, and any cause among men with vs without
the metabolic syndrome, using 4 definitions based on the National Cholesterol Education
Program (NCEP) and the World Health Organization (WHO).
The prevalence of the metabolic syndrome ranged from 8.8% to 14.3%, depending on the
definition. There were 109 deaths during the approximately 11.4-year follow-up, of
which 46 and 27 were due to CVD and CHD, respectively. Men with the metabolic syndrome
as defined by the NCEP were 2.9 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.2-7.2) to 4.2 (95%
CI, 1.6-10.8) times more likely and, as defined by the WHO, 2.9 (95% CI, 1.2-6.8)
to 3.3 (95% CI, 1.4-7.7) times more likely to die of CHD after adjustment for conventional
cardiovascular risk factors. The metabolic syndrome as defined by the WHO was associated
with 2.6 (95% CI, 1.4-5.1) to 3.0 (95% CI, 1.5-5.7) times higher CVD mortality and
1.9 (95% CI, 1.2-3.0) to 2.1 (95% CI, 1.3-3.3) times higher all-cause mortality. The
NCEP definition less consistently predicted CVD and all-cause mortality. Factor analysis
using 13 variables associated with metabolic or cardiovascular risk yielded a metabolic
syndrome factor that explained 18% of total variance. Men with loadings on the metabolic
factor in the highest quarter were 3.6 (95% CI, 1.7-7.9), 3.2 (95% CI, 1.7-5.8), and
2.3 (95% CI, 1.5-3.4) times more likely to die of CHD, CVD, and any cause, respectively.
Cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality are increased in men with the metabolic
syndrome, even in the absence of baseline CVD and diabetes. Early identification,
treatment, and prevention of the metabolic syndrome present a major challenge for
health care professionals facing an epidemic of overweight and sedentary lifestyle.