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      Mapping Environmental Dimensions of Dengue Fever Transmission Risk in the Aburrá Valley, Colombia

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          Abstract

          Dengue fever (DF) is endemic in Medellín, the second largest Colombian city, and surrounding municipalities. We used DF case and satellite environmental data to investigate conditions associated with suitable areas for DF occurrence in 2008 in three municipalities (Bello, Medellín and Itagüí). We develop spatially stratified tests of ecological niche models, and found generally good predictive ability, with all model tests yielding results significantly better than random expectations. We concluded that Bello and Medellín present ecological conditions somewhat different from, and more suitable for DF than, those of Itagüí. We suggest that areas predicted by our models as suitable for DF could be considered as at-risk, and could be used to guide campaigns for DF prevention in these municipalities.

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          Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model.

          Simon Hales, Neil de Wet, John Maindonald … (2002)
          Existing theoretical models of the potential effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases do not account for social factors such as population increase, or interactions between climate variables. Our aim was to investigate the potential effects of global climate change on human health, and in particular, on the transmission of vector-borne diseases. We modelled the reported global distribution of dengue fever on the basis of vapour pressure, which is a measure of humidity. We assessed changes in the geographical limits of dengue fever transmission, and in the number of people at risk of dengue by incorporating future climate change and human population projections into our model. We showed that the current geographical limits of dengue fever transmission can be modelled with 89% accuracy on the basis of long-term average vapour pressure. In 1990, almost 30% of the world population, 1.5 billion people, lived in regions where the estimated risk of dengue transmission was greater than 50%. With population and climate change projections for 2085, we estimate that about 5-6 billion people (50-60% of the projected global population) would be at risk of dengue transmission, compared with 3.5 billion people, or 35% of the population, if climate change did not happen. We conclude that climate change is likely to increase the area of land with a climate suitable for dengue fever transmission, and that if no other contributing factors were to change, a large proportion of the human population would then be put at risk.
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            Spatial epidemiology: an emerging (or re-emerging) discipline.

            Richard Ostfeld, Gregory Glass, Felicia Keesing (2005)
            Spatial epidemiology is the study of spatial variation in disease risk or incidence. Several ecological processes can result in strong spatial patterns of such risk or incidence: for example, pathogen dispersal might be highly localized, vectors or reservoirs for pathogens might be spatially restricted, or susceptible hosts might be clumped. Here, we briefly describe approaches to spatial epidemiology that are spatially implicit, such as metapopulation models of disease transmission, and then focus on research in spatial epidemiology that is spatially explicit, such as the creation of risk maps for particular geographical areas. Although the spatial dynamics of infectious diseases are the subject of intensive study, the impacts of landscape structure on epidemiological processes have so far been neglected. The few studies that demonstrate how landscape composition (types of elements) and configuration (spatial positions of those elements) influence disease risk or incidence suggest that a true integration of landscape ecology with epidemiology will be fruitful.
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              Characteristics of the spatial pattern of the dengue vector, Aedes aegypti, in Iquitos, Peru.

              Arthur Getis, Amy C Morrison, Kenneth G. Gray … (2003)
              We determine the spatial pattern of Aedes aegypti and the containers in which they develop in two neighborhoods of the Amazonian city of Iquitos, Peru. Four variables were examined: adult Ae. aegypti, pupae, containers positive for larvae or pupae, and all water-holding containers. Adults clustered strongly within houses and weakly to a distance of 30 meters beyond the household; clustering was not detected beyond 10 meters for positive containers or pupae. Over short periods of time restricted flight range and frequent blood-feeding behavior of Ae. aegypti appear to be underlying factors in the clustering patterns of human dengue infections. Permanent, consistently infested containers (key premises) were not major producers of Ae. aegypti, indicating that larvaciding strategies by themselves may be less effective than reduction of mosquito development sites by source reduction and education campaigns. We conclude that entomologic risk of human dengue infection should be assessed at the household level at frequent time intervals.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Int J Environ Res Public Health
                Journal ID (publisher-id): 101238455
                Title: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health
                Publisher: Molecular Diversity Preservation International (MDPI)
                ISSN (Print): 1661-7827
                ISSN (Electronic): 1660-4601
                Publication date (Print): December 2009
                Publication date (Electronic): 2 December 2009
                Volume: 6
                Issue: 12
                Pages: 3040-3055
                Affiliations
                [1 ] Grupo de Biología y Control de Enfermedades Infecciosas (BCEI), Instituto de Biología, Universidad de Antioquia, Sede de Investigaciones Universitarias, SIU, Calle 62 # 52–59 Laboratory 620, P.O. Box: 1226, Medellín, Colombia; E-Mails: sairorieta@ 123456yahoo.es (S.A.); nicolas.jaramillo@ 123456siu.udea.edu.co (N.J-O.)
                [2 ] Natural History Museum, the University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA
                Author notes
                [* ] Author to whom correspondence should be addressed; E-Mail: town@ 123456ku.edu ; Tel.: +1-785-864-3926; Fax: +1-785-864-5335.
                Article
                Publisher ID: ijerph-06-03040
                DOI: 10.3390/ijerph6123040
                PMC ID: 2800332
                PubMed ID: 20049244
                SO-VID: 4009dce6-70ec-42dc-a13a-ced98f7547ff
                Copyright © © 2009 by the authors; licensee Molecular Diversity Preservation International, Basel, Switzerland.
                License:

                This article is an open-access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/).

                History
                Date received : 21 September 2009
                Date accepted : 18 November 2009
                Categories
                Subject: Article

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Public health
                Keywords: remote sensing,geographic information systems,ecological niche modeling,dengue fever
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Public health
                Keywords: remote sensing, geographic information systems, ecological niche modeling, dengue fever

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