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      Development and validation of a predictive model to identify patients at risk of severe COPD exacerbations using administrative claims data

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          Patients with COPD often experience severe exacerbations involving hospitalization, which accelerate lung function decline and reduce quality of life. This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model to identify patients at risk of developing severe COPD exacerbations using administrative claims data, to facilitate appropriate disease management programs.


          A predictive model was developed using a retrospective cohort of COPD patients aged 55–89 years identified between July 1, 2010 and June 30, 2013 using Humana’s claims data. The baseline period was 12 months postdiagnosis, and the prediction period covered months 12–24. Patients with and without severe exacerbations in the prediction period were compared to identify characteristics associated with severe COPD exacerbations. Models were developed using stepwise logistic regression, and a final model was chosen to optimize sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative PV (NPV).


          Of 45,722 patients, 5,317 had severe exacerbations in the prediction period. Patients with severe exacerbations had significantly higher comorbidity burden, use of respiratory medications, and tobacco-cessation counseling compared to those without severe exacerbations in the baseline period. The predictive model included 29 variables that were significantly associated with severe exacerbations. The strongest predictors were prior severe exacerbations and higher Deyo–Charlson comorbidity score (OR 1.50 and 1.47, respectively). The best-performing predictive model had an area under the curve of 0.77. A receiver operating characteristic cutoff of 0.4 was chosen to optimize PPV, and the model had sensitivity of 17%, specificity of 98%, PPV of 48%, and NPV of 90%.


          This study found that of every two patients identified by the predictive model to be at risk of severe exacerbation, one patient may have a severe exacerbation. Once at-risk patients are identified, appropriate maintenance medication, implementation of disease-management programs, and education may prevent future exacerbations.

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          Most cited references 9

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          Deaths: preliminary data for 2011.

          This report presents preliminary U.S. data on deaths, death rates, life expectancy, leading causes of death, and infant mortality for 2011 by selected characteristics such as age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. Data in this report are based on death records comprising more than 98 percent of the demographic and medical files for all deaths in the United States in 2011. The records are weighted to independent control counts for 2011. Comparisons are made with 2010 final data. The age-adjusted death rate decreased from 747.0 deaths per 100,000 population in 2010 to 740.6 deaths per 100,000 population in 2011. From 2010 to 2011, age-adjusted death rates decreased significantly for 5 of the 15 leading causes of death: Diseases of heart, Malignant neoplasms, Cerebrovascular diseases, Alzheimer's disease, and Nephritis, nephrotic syndrome and nephrosis. The age-adjusted death rate increased for six leading causes of death: Chronic lower respiratory diseases, Diabetes mellitus, Influenza and pneumonia, Chronic liver disease and cirrhosis, Parkinson's disease, and Pneumonitis due to solids and liquids. Life expectancy remained the same in 2011 as it had been in 2010 at 78.7 years.
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            Association between lung function and exacerbation frequency in patients with COPD

            Purpose: To quantify the relationship between severity of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) as expressed by Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) stage and the annual exacerbation frequency in patients with COPD. Methods: We performed a systematic literature review to identify randomized controlled trials and cohort studies reporting the exacerbation frequency in COPD patients receiving usual care or placebo. Annual frequencies were determined for total exacerbations defined by an increased use of health care (event-based), total exacerbations defined by an increase of symptoms, and severe exacerbations defined by a hospitalization. The association between the mean forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1)% predicted of study populations and the exacerbation frequencies was estimated using weighted log linear regression with random effects. The regression equations were applied to the mean FEV1% predicted for each GOLD stage to estimate the frequency per stage. Results: Thirty-seven relevant studies were found, with 43 reports of total exacerbation frequency (event-based, n = 19; symptom-based, n = 24) and 14 reports of frequency of severe exacerbations. Annual event-based exacerbation frequencies per GOLD stage were estimated at 0.82 (95% confidence interval 0.46–1.49) for mild, 1.17 (0.93–1.50) for moderate, 1.61 (1.51–1.74) for severe, and 2.10 (1.51–2.94) for very severe COPD. Annual symptom-based frequencies were 1.15 (95% confidence interval 0.67–2.07), 1.44 (1.14–1.87), 1.76 (1.70–1.88), and 2.09 (1.57–2.82), respectively. For severe exacerbations, annual frequencies were 0.11 (95% confidence interval 0.02–0.56), 0.16 (0.07–0.33), 0.22 (0.20–0.23), and 0.28 (0.14–0.63), respectively. Study duration or type of study (cohort versus trial) did not significantly affect the outcomes. Conclusion: This study provides an estimate of the exacerbation frequency per GOLD stage, which can be used for health economic and modeling purposes.
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              Community based physiotherapeutic exercise in COPD self-management: a randomised controlled trial.

              Little is known about effects of community-based physiotherapeutic exercise programmes incorporated in COPD self-management programmes. In a randomised trial, the effect of such a programme (COPE-active) on exercise capacity and various secondary outcomes including daily activity as a marker of behaviour change was evaluated. All patients attended four 2-h self-management sessions. In addition the intervention group participated in the COPE-active programme offered by physiotherapists of private practices, consisting of a 6-month "compulsory" period (3 sessions/week) and subsequently a 5-month "optional" period (2 sessions/week). Because COPE-active was intended to change behaviour with regard to exercise, one session/week in both periods consisted of unsupervised home-based exercise training. Of 153 patients, 74 intervention and 68 control patients completed the one-year follow-up. Statistically significant between-group differences in incremental shuttle walk test-distance (35.1 m; 95% CI (8.4; 61.8)) and daily activity (1190 steps/day; 95% CI (256; 2125)) were found in favour of the intervention group. Over the 12-month period a significant difference of the chronic respiratory questionnaire (CRQ) dyspnoea-score (0.33 points; 95% CI (0.01; 0.64)) and a non-significant difference of the endurance shuttle walk test (135 m (95% CI (-29; 298)) was found. No differences were found in the other CRQ-components, anxiety and depression scores and percentage of fat free mass. This study demonstrates that a community-based reactivation programme improves exercise capacity in patients with moderately to severe COPD. Even more important, the programme improves actual daily activity after one-year which indicates behaviour change with regard to daily exercise. Registered trail number: ISRCTN81447311. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

                Author and article information

                Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis
                Int J Chron Obstruct Pulmon Dis
                International Journal of COPD
                International Journal of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease
                Dove Medical Press
                11 July 2018
                : 13
                : 2121-2130
                [1 ]Comprehensive Health Insights, Louisville, KY, srinivas.annavarapu@
                [2 ]Boehringer Ingelheim, Ridgefield, CT
                [3 ]Humana, Louisville, KY, USA
                Author notes
                Correspondence: Srinivas Annavarapu, Comprehensive Health Insights, 515 West Market Street, Louisville, KY 40202, USA, Tel +1 848 702 8233, Email srinivas.annavarapu@
                © 2018 Annavarapu et al. This work is published and licensed by Dove Medical Press Limited

                The full terms of this license are available at and incorporate the Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial (unported, v3.0) License ( By accessing the work you hereby accept the Terms. Non-commercial uses of the work are permitted without any further permission from Dove Medical Press Limited, provided the work is properly attributed.

                Original Research

                Respiratory medicine

                medicare, observational study, copd risk factors


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