Assessment of population exposure to PM2.5 for mortality in China and its public health benefit based on BenMAP

Abstract

Along with the rapid socioeconomic development, air pollution in China has become a severe problem. One component of air pollution, in particular, PM2.5 has aroused wide public concern because of its high concentration. In this study, data were collected from over 900 monitoring sites of the newly constructed PM2.5 monitoring network in China. The interpolation methods were used to simulate the PM2.5 exposure level of China especially in rural areas, thus reflecting the spatial variation of PM2.5 pollution. We calculated the health benefit caused by PM2.5 in China in 2014 based on Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP), assuming achievement of China National Ambient Air Quality Standard (No. GB3095-2012). By reducing the annual average concentration of PM2.5 to the annual Grade II standard (35 μg/m3), the avoided deaths for cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease and lung cancer could reach 89,000 (95% CI, 8000-170,000), 47,000 (95% CI, 3000-91,000) and 32,000 (95% CI, 6000-58,000) per year using long term health function, respectively. The attributable fractions of cardiovascular disease, respiratory disease and lung cancer to all cause were 42%, 22% and 15%, respectively. The total economic benefits for rolling back the concentration of PM2.5 to the level of 35 μg/m3 were estimated to be 260 (95%CI: (73, 440) billion RMB and 72 (95%CI: (45, 99) billion RMB using willingness to pay (WTP) and human capital (HC) methods, respectively, which account for 0.40% (95%CI: (0.11%, 0.69%) and 0.11% (95%CI: (0.07%, 0.15%) of the total annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of China in 2014.