Evaluación de la definición de caso probable de dengue clásico durante el brote de dengue en Lima, 2005  <span class="so-article-trans-title" dir="auto"> Translated title: Assessing the definition of probable cases during the dengue fever outbreak in Lima, 2005 </span>

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Abstract

Objetivos: Evaluar la utilidad diagnóstica de la definición de caso probable de dengue clásico (DCPDC) para la identificación de casos definitivos, durante el brote en el distrito de Comas, abril - mayo 2005. Materiales y métodos: Estudio observacional, analítico, no controlado de corte transversal. Se incluyeron pacientes procedentes de Comas que en el periodo de estudio presentaron sospecha de dengue y con resultados de aislamiento viral o ELISA IgM, según el tiempo de enfermedad (4 ó e5 días respectivamente) realizados en el Instituto Nacional de Salud. Se determinó la sensibilidad (S), especificidad (E), valor predictivo positivo (VPP) y negativo (VPN) de la DCPDC y de los síntomas que la conforman, tomando como prueba de oro al aislamiento viral o ELISA IgM. Resultados:Se incluyeron 316 pacientes, de los cuales se confirmaron 137 (43,4%) casos de dengue. Se detectaron 60 pacientes mediante aislamiento viral, la DCPDC en pacientes con cuatro o menos días de enfermedad presentó una S=85%, E=13,40%, VPP=13,18%, VPN= 74,29%. Se detectaron 77 pacientes con cinco o más días de enfermedad con IgM ELISA, la DCPDC en este grupo presentó S= 68,42, E= 16,28, VPP= 68,42, VPN= 46,67. Conclusiones: La DCPDC aplicada en el brote de dengue en Comas, al igual que los síntomas individuales que la conforman es sensible, pero poco específico.

Translated abstract

Objective: To assess diagnostic usefulness of the probable case of classic dengue fever for identifying definite cases during the outbreak in Comas District, April - May 2005. Materials and methods: Observational and analytical non-controlled cross-sectional study. Suspected dengue fever cases from Comas District were included. These persons also had results for viral isolation or IgM ELISA, according to their time of being ill (4 days or e5 days, respectively), laboratory studies were performed at Peruvian National Institute of Health. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for the definition of a probable case of classic dengue fever, including its symptoms, taking as a gold standard viral isolation or IgM ELISA. Results: 316 patients were included, and 137 (43,4%) of them were confirmed as dengue fever cases. Viral isolation was achieved in 60 patients. Probable dengue fever case definition for patients being ill for d4 days had a 85% sensitivity, 13,40% specificity, 13,18% positive predictive value, and 74,29% negative predictive value. 77 patients who were ill for five days or more were diagnosed using IgM ELISA, and the probable dengue fever case definition for these patients had a 68,42% sensitivity, 13,40 specificity, positive predictive value, 68,42%, and 46,67% negative predictive value. Conclusions: probable case definition used in the dengue fever outbreak in Comas District, as well as the assessment of individual symptoms, has good sensitivity, but poor specificity.

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Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever.

Duane J. Gubler (1998)

Dengue fever, a very old disease, has reemerged in the past 20 years with an expanded geographic distribution of both the viruses and the mosquito vectors, increased epidemic activity, the development of hyperendemicity (the cocirculation of multiple serotypes), and the emergence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in new geographic regions. In 1998 this mosquito-borne disease is the most important tropical infectious disease after malaria, with an estimated 100 million cases of dengue fever, 500,000 cases of dengue hemorrhagic fever, and 25,000 deaths annually. The reasons for this resurgence and emergence of dengue hemorrhagic fever in the waning years of the 20th century are complex and not fully understood, but demographic, societal, and public health infrastructure changes in the past 30 years have contributed greatly. This paper reviews the changing epidemiology of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever by geographic region, the natural history and transmission cycles, clinical diagnosis of both dengue fever and dengue hemorrhagic fever, serologic and virologic laboratory diagnoses, pathogenesis, surveillance, prevention, and control. A major challenge for public health officials in all tropical areas of the world is to develop and implement sustainable prevention and control programs that will reverse the trend of emergent dengue hemorrhagic fever.

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Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever in the Americas: lessons and challenges.

María G Guzmán, Gustavo Kouri (2003)

The incidence of dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) has increased significantly over the last decades. Yearly, an estimated 50-100 million cases of DF and about 250000-500000 cases of DHF occur worldwide. The epidemiological situation in Latin America now resembles that in Southeast Asia. Here, the main clinical, epidemiological and virological observations in the American region are presented and compared with those previously reported from Southeast Asia. During 2002, more than 30 Latin American countries reported over 1000000 DF cases. DHF occurred in 20 countries with more than 17000 DHF cases, including 225 fatalities. The co-circulation of multiple serotypes has been reported from many countries. In the Americas, DHF is observed both in children and adults; secondary infection by a different dengue virus serotype has been confirmed as an important risk factor for this severe form of the disease. However, some new risk factors such as the interval of dengue virus infections and the ethnicity and underlying chronic conditions of the patient have also been identified. The sequence of dengue virus infections and association with certain genotypes are further factors of importance. We also discuss the control and prevention strategies. In conclusion, without urgent action for the prevention and control of dengue/DHF and its vector, the current situation will worsen and, more dramatical, there is a risk of the urbanization of yellow fever.