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      Guidance on quantitative pest risk assessment

      research-article
      EFSA Panel on Plant Health (PLH), , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,
      EFSA Journal
      John Wiley and Sons Inc.
      guidance, quantitative pest risk assessment, risk reduction option, model, uncertainty, risk communication, expert knowledge elicitation

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          Abstract

          This Guidance describes a two‐phase approach for a fit‐for‐purpose method for the assessment of plant pest risk in the territory of the EU. Phase one consists of pest categorisation to determine whether the pest has the characteristics of a quarantine pest or those of a regulated non‐quarantine pest for the area of the EU. Phase two consists of pest risk assessment, which may be requested by the risk managers following the pest categorisation results. This Guidance provides a template for pest categorisation and describes in detail the use of modelling and expert knowledge elicitation to conduct a pest risk assessment. The Guidance provides support and a framework for assessors to provide quantitative estimates, together with associated uncertainties, regarding the entry, establishment, spread and impact of plant pests in the EU. The Guidance allows the effectiveness of risk reducing options ( RROs) to be quantitatively assessed as an integral part of the assessment framework. A list of RROs is provided. A two‐tiered approach is proposed for the use of expert knowledge elicitation and modelling. Depending on data and resources available and the needs of risk managers, pest entry, establishment, spread and impact steps may be assessed directly, using weight of evidence and quantitative expert judgement (first tier), or they may be elaborated in substeps using quantitative models (second tier). An example of an application of the first tier approach is provided. Guidance is provided on how to derive models of appropriate complexity to conduct a second tier assessment. Each assessment is operationalised using Monte Carlo simulations that can compare scenarios for relevant factors, e.g. with or without RROs. This document provides guidance on how to compare scenarios to draw conclusions on the magnitude of pest risks and the effectiveness of RROs and on how to communicate assessment results.

          Abstract

          This publication is linked to the following EFSA Supporting Publications article: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.2903/sp.efsa.2018.EN-1440/full

          ‘This guidance supersedes:

          a) the entire Guidance on a harmonised framework for pest risk assessment and the identification and evaluation of pest risk management options by EFSA. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2010.1495;

          b) Sections 1.8 and 1.9 of Guidance on methodology for evaluation of the effectiveness of options for reducing the risk of introduction and spread of organisms harmful to plant health in the EU territory. https://doi.org/10.2903/j.efsa.2012.2755

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          Most cited references69

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          Guidance of the Scientific Committee on Transparency in the Scientific Aspects of Risk Assessments carried out by EFSA. Part 2: General Principles

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                EFSA J
                EFSA J
                10.1002/(ISSN)1831-4732
                EFS2
                EFSA Journal
                John Wiley and Sons Inc. (Hoboken )
                1831-4732
                03 August 2018
                August 2018
                : 16
                : 8 ( doiID: 10.1002/efs2.2018.16.issue-8 )
                : e05350
                Author notes
                [*] Correspondence: alpha@ 123456efsa.europa.eu
                Article
                EFS25350
                10.2903/j.efsa.2018.5350
                7009646
                32626011
                41cb85bf-488a-44eb-a8c1-65ec0a8100e7
                © 2018 European Food Safety Authority. EFSA Journal published by John Wiley and Sons Ltd on behalf of European Food Safety Authority.

                This is an open access article under the terms of the http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/4.0/ License, which permits use and distribution in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited and no modifications or adaptations are made.

                History
                Page count
                Figures: 15, Tables: 7, Pages: 86, Words: 45509
                Categories
                Guidance
                Guidance
                Custom metadata
                2.0
                August 2018
                Converter:WILEY_ML3GV2_TO_JATSPMC version:5.7.5 mode:remove_FC converted:21.01.2020

                guidance,quantitative pest risk assessment,risk reduction option,model,uncertainty,risk communication,expert knowledge elicitation

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