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      Prognostic value of proximal left coronary artery flow velocity detected by transthoracic Doppler echocardiography

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          Abstract

          Background

          Lesions in the proximal left coronary artery (LCA) are associated with a poor prognosis compared with other lesional sites. Transthoracic Doppler echocardiography (TTDE) can help to detect proximal LCA flow, and an accelerated coronary flow velocity (CFV) indicates the presence of proximal LCA lesions. This study aimed to investigate the prognostic value of CFV in the proximal LCA measured by TTDE.

          Methods

          We enrolled 1472 consecutive hemodynamically stable patients with known or suspected heart disease whose CFV was successfully detected using TTDE accompanied by routine echocardiography between 2008 and 2011. The primary outcome was cardiac death (acute myocardial infarction, heart failure, or sudden cardiac death) and patients were followed up over a median of 6.3 years.

          Results

          Overall, 42 cardiac deaths (3%) were observed. An increased CFV was significantly associated with the outcome in several models based on potential confounders (age, rate pressure product, Framingham Risk Score, diabetes, coronary artery disease, hemoglobin, brain natriuretic peptide, estimated glomerular filtration rate, left ventricular mass, left ventricular ejection fraction, and E/e′). Using a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, the optimal cut-off value for the CFV to the association of the outcome was 37 cm/s (area under the curve, 0.70; sensitivity, 82%; specificity, 62%). In sequential Cox proportional hazards models, the CFV added incremental prognostic information to the clinical and basic echocardiographic parameters (chi-squared: 110.7 to 146.6, P < 0.01).

          Conclusions

          An increased CFV in the proximal LCA was associated with cardiac death, incremental to the clinical and basic echocardiographic parameters.

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          Most cited references40

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          2016 ESC Guidelines for the diagnosis and treatment of acute and chronic heart failure: The Task Force for the diagnosis and treatment of acute and chronic heart failure of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC)Developed with the special contribution of the Heart Failure Association (HFA) of the ESC.

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            Multivariable prognostic models: issues in developing models, evaluating assumptions and adequacy, and measuring and reducing errors.

            Multivariable regression models are powerful tools that are used frequently in studies of clinical outcomes. These models can use a mixture of categorical and continuous variables and can handle partially observed (censored) responses. However, uncritical application of modelling techniques can result in models that poorly fit the dataset at hand, or, even more likely, inaccurately predict outcomes on new subjects. One must know how to measure qualities of a model's fit in order to avoid poorly fitted or overfitted models. Measurement of predictive accuracy can be difficult for survival time data in the presence of censoring. We discuss an easily interpretable index of predictive discrimination as well as methods for assessing calibration of predicted survival probabilities. Both types of predictive accuracy should be unbiasedly validated using bootstrapping or cross-validation, before using predictions in a new data series. We discuss some of the hazards of poorly fitted and overfitted regression models and present one modelling strategy that avoids many of the problems discussed. The methods described are applicable to all regression models, but are particularly needed for binary, ordinal, and time-to-event outcomes. Methods are illustrated with a survival analysis in prostate cancer using Cox regression.
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              2015 ESC Guidelines for the management of patients with ventricular arrhythmias and the prevention of sudden cardiac death: The Task Force for the Management of Patients with Ventricular Arrhythmias and the Prevention of Sudden Cardiac Death of the European Society of Cardiology (ESC). Endorsed by: Association for European Paediatric and Congenital Cardiology (AEPC).

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Journal
                Int J Cardiol Heart Vasc
                Int J Cardiol Heart Vasc
                International Journal of Cardiology. Heart & Vasculature
                Elsevier
                2352-9067
                07 May 2018
                June 2018
                07 May 2018
                : 19
                : 52-57
                Affiliations
                Department of Cardiology, Kitaishikai Hospital, Ozu, Japan
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author at: Department of Cardiology, Kitaishikai Hospital, 2632-3 Tokunomori, Ozu, Ehime 795-8505, Japan. saito0321jp@ 123456yahoo.co.jp
                Article
                S2352-9067(18)30041-1
                10.1016/j.ijcha.2018.04.003
                6016069
                29946565
                4317bfce-7681-40f4-bd77-0d9399f57571
                © 2017 The Authors

                This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/).

                History
                : 8 February 2018
                : 17 April 2018
                Categories
                Original Paper

                adpv, averaged diastolic peak velocity,cag, coronary angiography,cfv, coronary flow velocity,ci, confidence interval,lca, left coronary artery,lv, left ventricular,ttde, transthoracic doppler echocardiography,coronary flow velocity,transthoracic doppler echocardiography,proximal left coronary artery,prognosis

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