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      Seasonal variations in mortality and clinical indicators in international hemodialysis populations from the MONDO registry

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          Abstract

          Background

          Seasonal mortality differences have been reported in US hemodialysis (HD) patients. Here we examine the effect of seasons on mortality, clinical and laboratory parameters on a global scale.

          Methods

          Databases from the international Monitoring Dialysis Outcomes (MONDO) consortium were queried to identify patients who received in-center HD for at least 1 year. Clinics were stratified by hemisphere and climate zone (tropical or temperate). We recorded mortality and computed averages of pre-dialysis systolic blood pressure (pre-SBP), interdialytic weight gain (IDWG), serum albumin, and log C-reactive protein (CRP). We explored seasonal effects using cosinor analysis and adjusted linear mixed models globally, and after stratification.

          Results

          Data from 87,399 patients were included (northern temperate: 63,671; northern tropical: 7,159; southern temperate: 13,917; southern tropical: 2,652 patients). Globally, mortality was highest in winter. Following stratification, mortality was significantly lower in spring and summer compared to winter in temperate, but not in tropical zones. Globally, pre-SBP and IDWG were lower in summer and spring as compared to winter, although less pronounced in tropical zones. Except for southern temperate zone, serum albumin levels were higher in winter. CRP levels were highest in winter.

          Conclusion

          Significant global seasonal variations in mortality, pre-SBP, IDWG, albumin and CRP were observed. Seasonal variations in mortality were most pronounced in temperate climate zones.

          Electronic supplementary material

          The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12882-015-0129-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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          Most cited references16

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          Vulnerability to heat-related mortality in Latin America: a case-crossover study in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Santiago, Chile and Mexico City, Mexico.

          Factors affecting vulnerability to heat-related mortality are not well understood. Identifying susceptible populations is of particular importance given anticipated rising temperatures from climatic change. We investigated heat-related mortality for three Latin American cities (Mexico City, Mexico; São Paulo, Brazil; Santiago, Chile) using a case-crossover approach for 754 291 deaths from 1998 to 2002. We considered lagged exposures, confounding by air pollution, cause of death and susceptibilities by educational attainment, age and sex. Same and previous day apparent temperature were most strongly associated with mortality risk. Effect estimates remained positive though lowered after adjustment for ozone or PM(10). Susceptibility increased with age in all cities. The increase in mortality risk for those >or=65 comparing the 95th and 75th percentiles of same-day apparent temperature was 2.69% (95% CI: -2.06 to 7.88%) for Santiago, 6.51% (95% CI: 3.57-9.52%) for São Paulo and 3.22% (95% CI: 0.93-5.57%) for Mexico City. Patterns of vulnerability by education and sex differed across communities. Effect estimates were higher for women than men in Mexico City, and higher for men elsewhere, although results by sex were not appreciably different for any city. In São Paulo, those with less education were more susceptible, whereas no distinct patterns by education were observed in the other cities. Elevated temperatures are associated with mortality risk in these Latin American cities, with the strongest associations in São Paulo, the hottest city. The elderly are an important population for targeted prevention measures, but vulnerability by sex and education differed by city.
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            Summer temperature variability and long-term survival among elderly people with chronic disease.

            Time series studies show that hot temperatures are associated with increased death rates in the short term. In light of evidence of adaptation to usual temperature but higher deaths at unusual temperatures, a long-term exposure relevant to mortality might be summertime temperature variability, which is expected to increase with climate change. We investigated whether the standard deviation (SD) of summer (June-August) temperatures was associated with survival in four cohorts of persons over age 65 y with predisposing diseases in 135 US cities. Using Medicare data (1985-2006), we constructed cohorts of persons hospitalized with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, diabetes, congestive heart failure, and myocardial infarction. City-specific yearly summer temperature variance was linked to the individuals during follow-up in each city and was treated as a time-varying exposure. We applied a Cox proportional hazard model for each cohort within each city, adjusting for individual risk factors, wintertime temperature variance, yearly ozone levels, and long-term trends, to estimate the chronic effects on mortality of long-term exposure to summer temperature SD, and then pooled results across cities. Mortality hazard ratios ranged from 1.028 (95% confidence interval, 1.013- 1.042) per 1 °C increase in summer temperature SD for persons with congestive heart failure to 1.040 (95% confidence interval, 1.022-1.059) per 1 °C increase for those with diabetes. Associations were higher in elderly persons and lower in cities with a higher percentage of land with green surface. Our data suggest that long-term increases in temperature variability may increase the risk of mortality in different subgroups of susceptible older populations.
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              Blood pressure and mortality among hemodialysis patients.

              Blood pressure measured before and after dialysis does not agree well with those recorded outside the dialysis unit. Whether recordings obtained outside the dialysis unit are of greater prognostic value than blood pressure obtained just before and after dialysis remains incompletely understood. Among 326 patients on long-term hemodialysis, blood pressure was self-measured at home for 1 week, over an interdialytic interval by ambulatory recording and before and after dialysis over 2 weeks. Over a mean follow-up of 32 (SD 20) months, 102 patients died (31%), yielding a crude mortality rate of 118/1000 patient years. Systolic but not diastolic blood pressure was found to be of prognostic importance. Adjusted and unadjusted multivariate analyses showed increasing quartiles of ambulatory and home systolic blood pressure to be associated with all-cause mortality (adjusted hazard ratios for increasing quartiles of ambulatory: 2.51, 3.43, 2.62; and for home blood pressure: 2.15, 1.7, 1.44). Mortality was lowest when home systolic blood pressure was between 120 to 130 mm Hg and ambulatory systolic blood pressure was between 110 to 120 mm Hg. Blood pressure recorded before and after dialysis was not statistically significant (P=0.17 for predialysis, and P=0.997 for postdialysis) in predicting mortality. Out-of-dialysis unit blood pressure measurement provided superior prognostic information compared to blood pressure within the dialysis unit (likelihood ratio test, P<0.05). Out-of-dialysis unit blood pressure among hemodialysis patients is prognostically more informative than that recorded just before and after dialysis. Therefore, the management of hypertension among these patients should focus on blood pressure recordings outside the dialysis unit.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Adrian.Guinsburg@fmc-ag.com
                Len.Usvyat@fmc-na.com
                Michael.Etter@fmc-asia.com
                Xiaoqi.Xu@fmc-asia.com
                Stephan.Thijssen@RRINY.COM
                Daniele.Marcelli@fmc-ag.de
                Bernard.Canaud@fmc-ag.com
                Cristina.Marelli@fmc-ag.com
                claudiabarth@aol.com
                yuedong@pstat.ucsb.edu
                paola.carioni@fmc-ag.com
                f.vander.sande@mumc.nl
                Peter.Kotanko@RRINY.COM
                31 43 3875007 , jeroen.kooman@mumc.nl
                Journal
                BMC Nephrol
                BMC Nephrol
                BMC Nephrology
                BioMed Central (London )
                1471-2369
                14 August 2015
                14 August 2015
                2015
                : 16
                : 139
                Affiliations
                [ ]Fresenius Latin America, Buenos Aires, Argentina
                [ ]Fresenius Medical Care, Waltham, MA USA
                [ ]Renal Research Institute, New York, NY USA
                [ ]Fresenius Asia Pacific Limited, Hong Kong, Hong Kong
                [ ]Fresenius Medical Care, Bad Homburg, Germany
                [ ]Kuratorium für Dialyse und Nierentransplantation e.V., Neu-Isenburg, Germany
                [ ]University of California - Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA United States
                [ ]Maastricht University Medical Center, Maastricht, Netherlands
                [ ]The Mount Sinai Hospital, New York, NY USA
                [ ]Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Nephrology, University Hospital Maastricht, PO Box 5800, 6202 AZ Maastricht, The Netherlands
                Article
                129
                10.1186/s12882-015-0129-y
                4542126
                26272070
                433c424d-77f6-4add-bfdb-37c4d29cd01a
                © Guinsburg et al. 2015

                Open Access This article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

                History
                : 5 January 2015
                : 28 July 2015
                Categories
                Research Article
                Custom metadata
                © The Author(s) 2015

                Nephrology
                blood pressure,global,hemodialysis,interdialytic weight gain,seasonal patterns,survival
                Nephrology
                blood pressure, global, hemodialysis, interdialytic weight gain, seasonal patterns, survival

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