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      Identification of potential impacts of climate change and anthropogenic activities on streamflow alterations in the Tarim River Basin, China

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          Abstract

          Understanding contributions of climate change and human activities to changes in streamflow is important for sustainable management of water resources in an arid area. This study presents quantitative analysis of climatic and anthropogenic factors to streamflow alteration in the Tarim River Basin (TRB) using the double mass curve method (DMC) and the Budyko methods. The time series (1960~2015) are divided into three periods: the prior impacted period (1960~1972) and the two post impacted periods, 1973~1986 and 1987~2015 with trend analysis. Our results suggest that human activities played a dominant role in deduction in the streamflow in TRB with contribution of 144.6% to 120.68% during the post impacted period I and 228.68% to 140.38% during the post impacted period II. Climatic variables accounted for 20.68%~44.6% of the decrease during the post impacted period I and 40.38% ~128.68% during the post impacted period II. Sensitivity analysis indicates that the streamflow alteration was most sensitive to changes in landscape parameters. The aridity index and all the elasticities showed an obvious increasing trend from the upstream to the downstream in the TRB. Our study suggests that it is important to take effective measures for sustainable development of eco-hydrological and socio-economic systems in the TRB.

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          Global water resources: vulnerability from climate change and population growth.

          The future adequacy of freshwater resources is difficult to assess, owing to a complex and rapidly changing geography of water supply and use. Numerical experiments combining climate model outputs, water budgets, and socioeconomic information along digitized river networks demonstrate that (i) a large proportion of the world's population is currently experiencing water stress and (ii) rising water demands greatly outweigh greenhouse warming in defining the state of global water systems to 2025. Consideration of direct human impacts on global water supply remains a poorly articulated but potentially important facet of the larger global change question.
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            A Non-Parametric Approach to the Change-Point Problem

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              Evaluation of an empirical equation for annual evaporation using field observations and results from a biophysical model

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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                lqxue@hhu.edu.cn
                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group UK (London )
                2045-2322
                15 August 2017
                15 August 2017
                2017
                : 7
                : 8254
                Affiliations
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1760 3465, GRID grid.257065.3, Hydrology and Water Resources College, , Hohai University, ; Nanjing, 210098 P.R. China
                [2 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 9924, GRID grid.89336.37, Jackson School of Geosciences, , University of Texas at Austin, ; Austin, 78712 USA
                [3 ]ISNI 0000 0001 0514 4044, GRID grid.411680.a, , Shihezi University, ; Shihezi, 832003 P.R. China
                [4 ]Tarim River Basin Administration, Korla, 841000 P.R. China
                [5 ]Hohai University Wentian College, Maanshan, 243000 P.R. China
                Article
                9215
                10.1038/s41598-017-09215-z
                5557968
                28811606
                43a80623-2ad3-441b-8754-73e64af5f93b
                © The Author(s) 2017

                Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article’s Creative Commons license and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyright holder. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.

                History
                : 22 May 2017
                : 24 July 2017
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