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      Predicting Impacts of Climate Change on Fasciola hepatica Risk

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          Abstract

          Fasciola hepatica (liver fluke) is a physically and economically devastating parasitic trematode whose rise in recent years has been attributed to climate change. Climate has an impact on the free-living stages of the parasite and its intermediate host Lymnaea truncatula, with the interactions between rainfall and temperature having the greatest influence on transmission efficacy. There have been a number of short term climate driven forecasts developed to predict the following season's infection risk, with the Ollerenshaw index being the most widely used. Through the synthesis of a modified Ollerenshaw index with the UKCP09 fine scale climate projection data we have developed long term seasonal risk forecasts up to 2070 at a 25 km square resolution. Additionally UKCIP gridded datasets at 5 km square resolution from 1970-2006 were used to highlight the climate-driven increase to date. The maps show unprecedented levels of future fasciolosis risk in parts of the UK, with risk of serious epidemics in Wales by 2050. The seasonal risk maps demonstrate the possible change in the timing of disease outbreaks due to increased risk from overwintering larvae. Despite an overall long term increase in all regions of the UK, spatio-temporal variation in risk levels is expected. Infection risk will reduce in some areas and fluctuate greatly in others with a predicted decrease in summer infection for parts of the UK due to restricted water availability. This forecast is the first approximation of the potential impacts of climate change on fasciolosis risk in the UK. It can be used as a basis for indicating where active disease surveillance should be targeted and where the development of improved mitigation or adaptation measures is likely to bring the greatest benefits.

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          Most cited references16

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          Drug resistance in veterinary helminths.

          At present, there is no effective alternative to chemical control of parasitic helminths where livestock are grazed intensively. Resistance to anthelmintics has become a major problem in veterinary medicine, and threatens both agricultural income and animal welfare. The molecular and biochemical basis of this resistance is not well understood. The lack of reliable biological and molecular tests means that we are not able to follow the emergence and spread of resistance alleles and clinical resistance as well as we need. This review summarizes some of the recent findings on resistance mechanisms, puts forward some recommendations for limiting its impact and suggests some priorities for research in this area.
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            Climate change effects on trematodiases, with emphasis on zoonotic fascioliasis and schistosomiasis.

            The capacity of climatic conditions to modulate the extent and intensity of parasitism is well known since long ago. Concerning helminths, among the numerous environmental modifications giving rise to changes in infections, climate variables appear as those showing a greater influence, so that climate change may be expected to have an important impact on the diseases they cause. However, the confirmation of the impact of climate change on helminthiases has been reached very recently. Only shortly before, helminthiases were still noted as infectious diseases scarcely affected by climate change, when compared to diseases caused by microorganisms in general (viruses, bacteriae, protozoans). The aim of the present paper is to review the impact of climate change on helminthiases transmitted by snails, invertebrates which are pronouncedly affected by meteorological factors, by focusing on trematodiases. First, the knowledge on the effects of climate change on trematodiases in general is reviewed, including aspects such as influence of temperature on cercarial output, cercarial production variability in trematode species, influences of magnitude of cercarial production and snail host size, cercarial quality, duration of cercarial production increase and host mortality, influence of latitude, and global-warming-induced impact of trematodes. Secondly, important zoonotic diseases such as fascioliasis, schistosomiasis and cercarial dermatitis are analysed from the point of view of their relationships with meteorological factors. Emphasis is given to data which indicate that climate change influences the characteristics of these trematodiases in concrete areas where these diseases are emerging in recent years. The present review shows that trematodes, similarly as other helminths presenting larval stages living freely in the environment and/or larval stages parasitic in invertebrates easily affected by climate change as arthropods and molluscs as intermediate hosts, may be largely more susceptible to climate change impact than those helminths in whose life cycle such phases are absent or reduced to a minimum. Although helminths also appear to be affected by climate change, their main difference with microparasites lies on the usually longer life cycles of helminths, with longer generation times, slower population growth rates and longer time period needed for the response in the definitive host to become evident. Consequently, after a pronounced climate change in a local area, modifications in helminth populations need more time to be obvious or detectable than modifications in microparasite populations. Similarly, the relation of changes in a helminthiasis with climatic factor changes, as extreme events elapsed relatively long time ago, may be overlooked if not concretely searched for. All indicates that this phenomenon has been the reason for previous analyses to conclude that helminthiases do not constitute priority targets in climate change impact studies.
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              The development of linear regression models using environmental variables to explain the spatial distribution of Fasciola hepatica infection in dairy herds in England and Wales.

              Fasciolosis caused by Fasciola hepatica is a major cause of economic loss to the agricultural community worldwide as a result of morbidity and mortality in livestock. Spatial models developed with the aid of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) can be used to develop risk maps for fasciolosis for use in the formulation of disease control programmes. Here we investigate the spatial epidemiology of F. hepatica in dairy herds in England and Wales and develop linear regression models to explain observed patterns of exposure at a small spatial unit, the postcode area. Exposure data used for the analysis were taken from an earlier study of F. hepatica infection, performed in the winter of 2006/7. Climatic, environmental, soil, livestock and pasture variables were considered as potential predictors. The performance of models that used climate variables for 5 years average data, contemporary data and a combination of both for England and Wales, and for England only, was compared. All models explained over 70% of the variation in the prevalence of exposure. The best performing models were those built using 5 year average and contemporary weather data. However, the fit of these models was only slightly better than the fit of models using weather data from one time period only. Rainfall was a consistent predictor in all models. Other model covariates included temperature, the negative predictors of soil pH and slope and the positive predictors of poor quality land, as determined by the Agricultural Land Classification, and very fine sand content of soil. Choroplethic risk maps showed a good match between the observed F. hepatica exposure values and exposure values fitted by the models. The development of these detailed spatial models is the first step towards the development of a spatially specific, temporal forecasting system for liver fluke in the United Kingdom. Copyright 2010 Australian Society for Parasitology Inc. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, USA )
                1932-6203
                2011
                10 January 2011
                : 6
                : 1
                : e16126
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Animal Health, Scottish Agricultural College, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
                [2 ]Environment Department, University of York, York, United Kingdom
                [3 ]Biomathematics and Statistics Scotland, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
                University of Liverpool, United Kingdom
                Author notes

                Conceived and designed the experiments: NJF MRH PCLW CJM AE GM. Performed the experiments: NJF CJM. Analyzed the data: NJF. Wrote the paper: NJF MRH PCLW GM.

                Article
                PONE-D-10-00499
                10.1371/journal.pone.0016126
                3018428
                21249228
                43db657f-1bcf-40e4-93b5-80a36c1f91fd
                Fox et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
                History
                : 5 August 2010
                : 14 December 2010
                Page count
                Pages: 9
                Categories
                Research Article
                Biology
                Ecology
                Global Change Ecology
                Zoology
                Helminthology
                Parasitology

                Uncategorized
                Uncategorized

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