31
views
0
recommends
+1 Recommend
3 collections
    0
    shares
      • Record: found
      • Abstract: found
      • Article: found
      Is Open Access

      Agriculture production's sensitivity to changes in climate in South Africa

      research-article

      Read this article at

      Bookmark
          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Abstract

          South Africa in general has been approximately 2% hotter and at least 6% drier over the ten years between 1997 and 2006 compared to the 1970s. The use of water has also increased greatly over this same period. By 2000, 98.6% of that year's surface water yield and 41% of the annual utilisable potential of groundwater was allocated to use. Irrigation agriculture, comprising 60% of total consumption, is by far the largest single consumer of water. Given these climatic and water use changes as a backdrop, we employed a panel data econometric model to estimate how sensitive the nation's agriculture may be to changes in rainfall. Net agricultural income in the provinces, contributing 10% or more to total production of both field crops and horticulture, is likely to be negatively affected by a decline in rainfall, especially rain-fed agriculture. For the country as a whole, each 1% decline in rainfall is likely to lead to a 1.1% decline in the production of maize (a summer grain) and a 0.5% decline in winter wheat. These results are discussed with respect to both established and emerging farmers, and the type of agriculture that should be favoured or phased out in different parts of the country, in view of current and projected trends in climate, increasing water use, and declining water availability.

          Related collections

          Most cited references25

          • Record: found
          • Abstract: not found
          • Book: not found

          Analysisof Panel Data

            Bookmark
            • Record: found
            • Abstract: not found
            • Article: not found

            Serial Correlation and the Fixed Effects Model

              Bookmark
              • Record: found
              • Abstract: not found
              • Article: not found

              National Water Resources Strategy

              (2013)
                Bookmark

                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Role: ND
                Journal
                sajs
                South African Journal of Science
                S. Afr. j. sci.
                Academy of Science of South Africa (Pretoria )
                1996-7489
                February 2009
                : 105
                : 1-2
                : 61-68
                Affiliations
                [1 ] University of Pretoria South Africa
                [2 ] Competition Commission New Zealand
                [3 ] CEFE France
                Article
                S0038-23532009000100022
                10.1590/s0038-23532009000100022
                43e99eb9-8d44-49f4-af96-b431ae1fb8ab

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                History
                Product

                SciELO South Africa

                Self URI (journal page): http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_serial&pid=0038-2353&lng=en
                Categories
                Biology
                Humanities, Multidisciplinary

                General life sciences
                agriculture production,rainfall,drought,climate change,water scarcity
                General life sciences
                agriculture production, rainfall, drought, climate change, water scarcity

                Comments

                Comment on this article