A universal model for mobility and migration patterns

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Abstract

Introduced in its contemporary form by George Kingsley Zipf in 1946, but with roots that go back to the work of Gaspard Monge in the 18th century, the gravity law is the prevailing framework to predict population movement, cargo shipping volume, inter-city phone calls, as well as bilateral trade flows between nations. Despite its widespread use, it relies on adjustable parameters that vary from region to region and suffers from known analytic inconsistencies. Here we introduce a stochastic process capturing local mobility decisions that helps us analytically derive commuting and mobility fluxes that require as input only information on the population distribution. The resulting radiation model predicts mobility patterns in good agreement with mobility and transport patterns observed in a wide range of phenomena, from long-term migration patterns to communication volume between different regions. Given its parameter-free nature, the model can be applied in areas where we lack previous mobility measurements, significantly improving the predictive accuracy of most of phenomena affected by mobility and transport processes.

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Most cited references 22

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Understanding individual human mobility patterns

M. González, A L Barabási, C. Hidalgo (2008)

Despite their importance for urban planning, traffic forecasting, and the spread of biological and mobile viruses, our understanding of the basic laws governing human motion remains limited thanks to the lack of tools to monitor the time resolved location of individuals. Here we study the trajectory of 100,000 anonymized mobile phone users whose position is tracked for a six month period. We find that in contrast with the random trajectories predicted by the prevailing Levy flight and random walk models, human trajectories show a high degree of temporal and spatial regularity, each individual being characterized by a time independent characteristic length scale and a significant probability to return to a few highly frequented locations. After correcting for differences in travel distances and the inherent anisotropy of each trajectory, the individual travel patterns collapse into a single spatial probability distribution, indicating that despite the diversity of their travel history, humans follow simple reproducible patterns. This inherent similarity in travel patterns could impact all phenomena driven by human mobility, from epidemic prevention to emergency response, urban planning and agent based modeling.

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Traffic and Related Self-Driven Many-Particle Systems

Dirk Helbing (2000)

Since the subject of traffic dynamics has captured the interest of physicists, many astonishing effects have been revealed and explained. Some of the questions now understood are the following: Why are vehicles sometimes stopped by so-called ``phantom traffic jams'', although they all like to drive fast? What are the mechanisms behind stop-and-go traffic? Why are there several different kinds of congestion, and how are they related? Why do most traffic jams occur considerably before the road capacity is reached? Can a temporary reduction of the traffic volume cause a lasting traffic jam? Under which conditions can speed limits speed up traffic? Why do pedestrians moving in opposite directions normally organize in lanes, while similar systems are ``freezing by heating''? Why do self-organizing systems tend to reach an optimal state? Why do panicking pedestrians produce dangerous deadlocks? All these questions have been answered by applying and extending methods from statistical physics and non-linear dynamics to self-driven many-particle systems. This review article on traffic introduces (i) empirically data, facts, and observations, (ii) the main approaches to pedestrian, highway, and city traffic, (iii) microscopic (particle-based), mesoscopic (gas-kinetic), and macroscopic (fluid-dynamic) models. Attention is also paid to the formulation of a micro-macro link, to aspects of universality, and to other unifying concepts like a general modelling framework for self-driven many-particle systems, including spin systems. Subjects such as the optimization of traffic flows and relations to biological or socio-economic systems such as bacterial colonies, flocks of birds, panics, and stock market dynamics are discussed as well.

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Spatial Networks

(2010)

Complex systems are very often organized under the form of networks where nodes and edges are embedded in space. Transportation and mobility networks, Internet, mobile phone networks, power grids, social and contact networks, neural networks, are all examples where space is relevant and where topology alone does not contain all the information. Characterizing and understanding the structure and the evolution of spatial networks is thus crucial for many different fields ranging from urbanism to epidemiology. An important consequence of space on networks is that there is a cost associated to the length of edges which in turn has dramatic effects on the topological structure of these networks. We will expose thoroughly the current state of our understanding of how the spatial constraints affect the structure and properties of these networks. We will review the most recent empirical observations and the most important models of spatial networks. We will also discuss various processes which take place on these spatial networks, such as phase transitions, random walks, synchronization, navigation, resilience, and disease spread.