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      Future climate effects on suitability for growth of oil palms in Malaysia and Indonesia

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          Abstract

          The production of palm oil (PO) is highly profitable. The economies of the principal producers, Malaysia and Indonesia, and others, benefit considerably. Climate change (CC) will most likely have an impact on the distribution of oil palms (OP) ( Elaeis guineensis). Here we present modelled CC projections with respect to the suitability of growing OP, in Malaysia and Indonesia. A process-oriented niche model of OP was developed using CLIMEX to estimate its potential distribution under current and future climate scenarios. Two Global Climate Models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.0 and MIROC-H, were used to explore the impacts of CC under the A1B and A2 scenarios for 2030, 2070 and 2100. Decreases in climatic suitability for OP in the region were gradual by 2030 but became more pronounced by 2100. These projections imply that OP growth will be affected severely by CC, with obvious implications to the economies of (a) Indonesia and Malaysia and (b) the PO industry, but with potential benefits towards reducing CC. A possible remedial action is to concentrate research on development of new varieties of OP that are less vulnerable to CC.

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          Most cited references 39

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          Is oil palm agriculture really destroying tropical biodiversity?

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            Recent climate observations compared to projections.

            We present recent observed climate trends for carbon dioxide concentration, global mean air temperature, and global sea level, and we compare these trends to previous model projections as summarized in the 2001 assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The IPCC scenarios and projections start in the year 1990, which is also the base year of the Kyoto protocol, in which almost all industrialized nations accepted a binding commitment to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. The data available for the period since 1990 raise concerns that the climate system, in particular sea level, may be responding more quickly to climate change than our current generation of models indicates.
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              CliMond: global high-resolution historical and future scenario climate surfaces for bioclimatic modelling

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Sci Rep
                Sci Rep
                Scientific Reports
                Nature Publishing Group
                2045-2322
                24 September 2015
                2015
                : 5
                Affiliations
                [1 ]CEB - Centre of Biological Engineering, University of Minho , 4710-057 Braga, Portugal
                [2 ]School of Environmental and Rural Science, University of New England, Armidale NSW 2351, Australia
                [3 ]Postgraduate Program in Agricultural Microbiology, Federal University of Lavras , 37200-000, Lavras, MG, Brazil
                Author notes
                Article
                srep14457
                10.1038/srep14457
                4585861
                26399638
                44f2abf9-dbde-485c-9fd2-6c7de33d0f2f
                Copyright © 2015, Macmillan Publishers Limited

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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