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      Longitudinal Study of the Decline in Renal Function in Healthy Subjects

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          Abstract

          Background

          Chronic kidney disease is an important concern in preventive medicine, but the rate of decline in renal function in healthy population is not well defined. The purpose of this study was to determine reference values for the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and rate of decline of eGFR in healthy subjects and to evaluate factors associated with this decline using a large cohort in Japan.

          Methods

          Retrospective cross-sectional and longitudinal studies were performed with healthy subjects aged ≥18 years old who received a medical checkup. Reference values for eGFR were obtained using a nonparametric method and those for decline of eGFR were calculated by mixed model analysis. Relationships of eGFR decline rate with baseline variables were examined using a linear least-squares method.

          Results

          In the cross-sectional study, reference values for eGFR were obtained by gender and age in 72,521 healthy subjects. The mean (±SD) eGFR was 83.7±14.7ml/min/1.73m 2. In the longitudinal study, reference values for eGFR decline rate were obtained by gender, age, and renal stage in 45,586 healthy subjects. In the same renal stage, there was little difference in the rate of decline regardless of age. The decline in eGFR depended on the renal stage and was strongly related to baseline eGFR, with a faster decline with a higher baseline eGFR and a slower decline with a lower baseline eGFR. The mean (±SD) eGFR decline rate was ‒1.07±0.42ml/min/1.73m 2/year (‒1.29±0.41%/year) in subjects with a mean eGFR of 81.5±11.6ml/min/1.73m 2.

          Conclusions

          The present study clarified for the first time the reference values for the rate of eGFR decline stratified by gender, age, and renal stage in healthy subjects. The rate of eGFR decline depended mainly on baseline eGFR, but not on age, with a slower decline with a lower baseline eGFR.

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          Most cited references16

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          Decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate and subsequent risk of end-stage renal disease and mortality.

          Josef Coresh, Tanvir Turin, Kunihiro Matsushita … (2014)
          The established chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression end point of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) or a doubling of serum creatinine concentration (corresponding to a change in estimated glomerular filtration rate [GFR] of −57% or greater) is a late event. To characterize the association of decline in estimated GFR with subsequent progression to ESRD with implications for using lesser declines in estimated GFR as potential alternative end points for CKD progression. Because most people with CKD die before reaching ESRD, mortality risk also was investigated. Individual meta-analysis of 1.7 million participants with 12,344 ESRD events and 223,944 deaths from 35 cohorts in the CKD Prognosis Consortium with a repeated measure of serum creatinine concentration over 1 to 3 years and outcome data. Transfer of individual participant data or standardized analysis of outputs for random-effects meta-analysis conducted between July 2012 and September 2013, with baseline estimated GFR values collected from 1975 through 2012. End-stage renal disease (initiation of dialysis or transplantation) or all-cause mortality risk related to percentage change in estimated GFR over 2 years, adjusted for potential confounders and first estimated GFR. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) of ESRD and mortality were higher with larger estimated GFR decline. Among participants with baseline estimated GFR of less than 60 mL/min/1.73 m2, the adjusted HRs for ESRD were 32.1 (95% CI, 22.3-46.3) for changes of −57% in estimated GFR and 5.4 (95% CI, 4.5-6.4) for changes of −30%. However, changes of −30% or greater (6.9% [95% CI, 6.4%-7.4%] of the entire consortium) were more common than changes of −57% (0.79% [95% CI, 0.52%-1.06%]). This association was strong and consistent across the length of the baseline period (1 to 3 years), baseline estimated GFR, age, diabetes status, or albuminuria. Average adjusted 10-year risk of ESRD (in patients with a baseline estimated GFR of 35 mL/min/1.73 m2) was 99% (95% CI, 95%-100%) for estimated GFR change of −57%, was 83% (95% CI, 71%-93%) for estimated GFR change of −40%, and was 64% (95% CI, 52%-77%) for estimated GFR change of −30% vs 18% (95% CI, 15%-22%) for estimated GFR change of 0%. Corresponding mortality risks were 77% (95% CI, 71%-82%), 60% (95% CI, 56%-63%), and 50% (95% CI, 47%-52%) vs 32% (95% CI, 31%-33%), showing a similar but weaker pattern. Declines in estimated GFR smaller than a doubling of serum creatinine concentration occurred more commonly and were strongly and consistently associated with the risk of ESRD and mortality, supporting consideration of lesser declines in estimated GFR (such as a 30% reduction over 2 years) as an alternative end point for CKD progression.
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            Predictors of the progression of renal disease in the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease Study.

            Lawrence G Hunsicker, Sharon G. Adler, Arlene Caggiula … (1997)
            The Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study examined the effects of dietary protein restriction and strict blood pressure control on the decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in 840 patients with diverse renal diseases. We describe a systematic analysis to determine baseline factors that predict the decline in GFR, or which alter the efficacy of the diet or blood pressure interventions. Univariate analysis identified 18 of 41 investigated baseline factors as significant (P < 0.05) predictors of GFR decline. In multivariate analysis, six factors--greater urine protein excretion, diagnosis of polycystic kidney disease (PKD), lower serum transferrin, higher mean arterial pressure, black race, and lower serum HDL cholesterol--independently predicted a faster decline in GFR. Together with the study interventions, these six factors accounted for 34.5% and 33.9% of the variance between patients in GFR slopes in Studies A and B, respectively, with proteinuria and PKD playing the predominant role. The mean rate of GFR decline was not significantly related to baseline GFR, suggesting an approximately linear mean GFR decline as renal disease progresses. The 41 baseline predictors were also assessed for their interactions with the diet and blood pressure interventions. A greater benefit of the low blood pressure intervention was found in patients with higher baseline urine protein. None of the 41 baseline factors were shown to predict a greater or lesser effect of dietary protein restriction.
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              Rapid kidney function decline and mortality risk in older adults.

              David Siscovick, Dena E. Rifkin, Ronit Katz … (2008)
              Impaired kidney function is associated with increased mortality risk in older adults. It remains unknown, however, whether longitudinal declines in kidney function are independently associated with increased cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in older adults. The Cardiovascular Health Study evaluated a cohort of community-dwelling older adults enrolled from 1989 to 1993 in 4 US communities with follow-up through 2005. Among 4380 participants, the slope of annual decline in estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was estimated using both serum creatinine (eGFR(creat)) and cystatin C (eGFR(cys)) rates, which were measured at baseline, year 3, and year 7 of follow-up. Rapid decline in eGFR was defined as a loss greater than 3 mL/min/1.73 m(2) per year, and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality were assessed over a mean of 9.9 years of follow-up. Mean (SD) levels of creatinine and cystatin C were 0.93 (0.30) mg/dL and 1.03 (0.25) mg/L, respectively; mean (SD) eGFR(creat) and eGFR(cys) were 79 (23) mL/min/1.73 m(2) and 79 (19) mL/min/1.73 m(2), respectively. Individuals with rapid decline measured by eGFR(creat) (n = 714; 16%) had increased risk of cardiovascular (adjusted hazard ratio [AHR], 1.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.40-2.06) and all-cause (AHR, 1.73; 95% CI, 1.54-1.94) mortality. Individuals with rapid decline measured by eGFR(cys) (n = 1083; 25%) also had increased risk of cardiovascular (AHR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.29-1.80) and all-cause (AHR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.38-1.69) mortality. The association of rapid decline in eGFR with elevated mortality risk did not differ across subgroups based on baseline kidney function, age, sex, race, or prevalent coronary heart disease. Rapid decline in eGFR is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in older adults, independent of baseline eGFR and other demographic variables.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Hideharu Abe: Role: Academic Editor
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): PLoS One
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): PLoS ONE
                Journal ID (publisher-id): plos
                Journal ID (pmc): plosone
                Title: PLoS ONE
                Publisher: Public Library of Science (San Francisco, CA USA )
                ISSN (Electronic): 1932-6203
                Publication date (Electronic): 10 June 2015
                Publication date Collection: 2015
                Volume: 10
                Issue: 6
                Electronic Location Identifier: e0129036
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Center for Preventive Medicine, St. Luke’s Affiliated Clinic, St. Luke’s International University, Tokyo, Japan
                [2 ]Ohta Nishinouchi Hospital, Koriyama, Japan
                [3 ]Department of Functional Diagnostic Science, Osaka University Graduate School of Medicine, Suita, Osaka, Japan
                [4 ]Center for Advanced Medicine and Clinical Research, Nagoya University Hospital, Nagoya, Japan
                [5 ]Department of Nephrology, Nagoya University Graduate School of Medicine, Nagoya, Japan
                [6 ]Division of Nephrology, Department of Medicine, St. Luke’s Hospital, St. Luke’s International University, Tokyo, Japan
                Tokushima University Graduate School, JAPAN
                Author notes

                Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

                Conceived and designed the experiments: MB TS YY YK S. Mar. Analyzed the data: MB TS MH S. Mar. Wrote the paper: MB TS MA YY YK KM S. Mat S. Mar.

                Article
                Publisher ID: PONE-D-14-50705
                DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0129036
                PMC ID: 4464887
                PubMed ID: 26061083
                SO-VID: 4506b98e-c735-4497-8cd2-4a04e6f7bcae
                Copyright statement: Copyright @ 2015
                License:

                This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited

                History
                Date received : 13 November 2014
                Date accepted : 4 May 2015
                Page count
                Figures: 4, Tables: 5, Pages: 18
                Funding
                This study was funded by a grant from St. Luke’s Life Science Institute, St. Luke’s International University. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.
                Categories
                Subject: Research Article
                Custom metadata
                Data Availability All relevant data are within the paper and its Supporting Information files.

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Uncategorized
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                ScienceOpen disciplines: Uncategorized

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