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      Evaluation of Location-Specific Predictions by a Detailed Simulation Model of Aedes aegypti Populations

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          Abstract

          Background

          Skeeter Buster is a stochastic, spatially explicit simulation model of Aedes aegypti populations, designed to predict the outcome of vector population control methods. In this study, we apply the model to two specific locations, the cities of Iquitos, Peru, and Buenos Aires, Argentina. These two sites differ in the amount of field data that is available for location-specific customization. By comparing output from Skeeter Buster to field observations in these two cases we evaluate population dynamics predictions by Skeeter Buster with varying degrees of customization.

          Methodology/Principal Findings

          Skeeter Buster was customized to the Iquitos location by simulating the layout of houses and the associated distribution of water-holding containers, based on extensive surveys of Ae. aegypti populations and larval habitats that have been conducted in Iquitos for over 10 years. The model is calibrated by adjusting the food input into various types of containers to match their observed pupal productivity in the field. We contrast the output of this customized model to the data collected from the natural population, comparing pupal numbers and spatial distribution of pupae in the population. Our results show that Skeeter Buster replicates specific population dynamics and spatial structure of Ae. aegypti in Iquitos. We then show how Skeeter Buster can be customized for Buenos Aires, where we only had Ae. aegypti abundance data that was averaged across all locations. In the Argentina case Skeeter Buster provides a satisfactory simulation of temporal population dynamics across seasons.

          Conclusions

          This model can provide a faithful description of Ae. aegypti populations, through a process of location-specific customization that is contingent on the amount of data available from field collections. We discuss limitations presented by some specific components of the model such as the description of food dynamics and challenges that these limitations bring to model evaluation.

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          Most cited references45

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          The global emergence/resurgence of arboviral diseases as public health problems.

          During the past 20 years there has been a dramatic resurgence or emergence of epidemic arboviral diseases affecting both humans and domestic animals. These epidemics have been caused primarily by viruses thought to be under control such as dengue, Japanese encephalitis, yellow fever, and Venezuelan equine encephalitis, or viruses that have expanded their geographic distribution such as West Nile and Rift Valley fever. Several of these viruses are presented as case studies to illustrate the changing epidemiology. The factors responsible for the dramatic resurgence of arboviral diseases in the waning years of the 20th century are discussed, as is the need for rebuilding the public health infrastructure to deal with epidemic vector-borne diseases in the 21st century.
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            Defining Challenges and Proposing Solutions for Control of the Virus Vector Aedes aegypti

            If done properly, say the authors,Aedes aegypti suppression is a practical method to control urban dengue, yellow fever, and chikungunya viruses.
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              Gene drive systems for insect disease vectors.

              The elegant mechanisms by which naturally occurring selfish genetic elements, such as transposable elements, meiotic drive genes, homing endonuclease genes and Wolbachia, spread at the expense of their hosts provide some of the most fascinating and remarkable subjects in evolutionary genetics. These elements also have enormous untapped potential to be used in the control of some of the world's most devastating diseases. Effective gene drive systems for spreading genes that can block the transmission of insect-borne pathogens are much needed. Here we explore the potential of natural gene drive systems and discuss the artificial constructs that could be envisaged for this purpose.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Role: Editor
                Journal
                PLoS One
                plos
                plosone
                PLoS ONE
                Public Library of Science (San Francisco, USA )
                1932-6203
                2011
                25 July 2011
                : 6
                : 7
                : e22701
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Entomology, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
                [2 ]Department of Entomology, University of California Davis, Davis, California, United States of America
                [3 ]Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
                [4 ]Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
                [5 ]Department of Mathematics and Biomathematics Graduate Program, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina, United States of America
                Duke-National University of Singapore, Singapore
                Author notes

                Conceived and designed the experiments: ML KM TWS ALL FG. Performed the experiments: ML KM. Analyzed the data: ML CX TWS ALL FG. Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: ACM TWS. Wrote the paper: ML TWS ALL FG.

                Article
                PONE-D-10-05874
                10.1371/journal.pone.0022701
                3143176
                21799936
                4518109c-ac81-4cc6-9daa-787de2df282d
                Legros et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.
                History
                : 1 December 2010
                : 5 July 2011
                Page count
                Pages: 11
                Categories
                Research Article
                Biology
                Ecology
                Population Ecology
                Theoretical Ecology
                Population Biology
                Population Dynamics
                Population Ecology
                Population Modeling
                Medicine
                Infectious Diseases
                Neglected Tropical Diseases
                Dengue Fever
                Vectors and Hosts
                Mosquitoes

                Uncategorized
                Uncategorized

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