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      Elecciones presidenciales y desarrollo municipal: el caso colombiano (1986-2014) Translated title: Les élections présidentielles et le développement économique des communes: le cas de Colombie (1986-2014) Translated title: Presidential Elections and Municipal Development: The Colombian Case (1986-2014)

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          Abstract

          Resumen: ¿Se puede explicar la probabilidad de votación de un candidato a partir de las condiciones municipales de violencia y desarrollo? Este artículo estudia el impacto del desarrollo económico y la violencia a nivel municipal sobre los patrones de votación en las elecciones presidenciales en Colombia para el período 1986-2014. Se utiliza una metodología de Análisis de Componentes Principales (ACP) y se genera así un índice de votación municipal, el cual se utiliza como insumo principal, junto con variables de desarrollo y violencia municipal en un modelo beta bayesiano. Al final, se concluye que, con mayor nivel de educación y acceso a medios de comunicación de los electores, se aumenta la probabilidad de votar por candidatos de derecha y se disminuye la probabilidad de votar por candidatos liberales. Clasificación JEL: C38, D72, O12, K14.

          Translated abstract

          Résumé : Peut-on estimer la probabilité de voter un candidat aux élections présidentielles à partir des conditions de violence et de développement économique des communes? Cet article étudie l’impact du développement et de la violence dans les communes sur les intentions de vote lors des élections présidentielles en Colombie pour la période 1986-2014. Nous utilisons une méthodologie d’analyse en composantes principales (ACP), afin d’estimer un indice de vote municipal qui est ensuite mis en relation avec les variables de développement économique et de violence, à travers un modèle bêta bayésien. Finalement, nous concluons que les niveaux d’éducation plus élevés et l’accès aux médias des électeurs augmentent la probabilité de voter des candidats de droite et diminuent la probabilité de voter des candidats libéraux. Clasificación JEL: C38, D72, O12, K14.

          Translated abstract

          Abstract: Can the probability of voting for a candidate based on the municipal conditions of violence and development be explain? This paper analyses the impact of economic development and violence at the municipal level on voting patterns in presidential elections in Colombia for the period 1986-2014. It uses Principal Components Analysis (PCA) methodology and generates a municipal voting index, which is used as main input together with municipal development and violence variables in a Bayesian beta model. In the end, it is concluded that with a higher level of education and access to the media, the probability of voting for right-wing candidates increases and the probability of voting for liberal candidates is less likely. Clasificación JEL: C38, D72, O12, K14.

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          Race, Sociopolitical Participation, and Black Empowerment

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            Sparks and prairie fires: A theory of unanticipated political revolution

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              A Dynamic Simultaneous Equation Model of Electoral Choice

              This article develops a simultaneous equation model of the voting decision in a form thought to mirror the main lines of cognitive decision-making processes of individual voters. The model goes beyond earlier efforts in two respects. First, it explicitly represents the causal interdependence of voter assessments in the election situation, permitting such estimations as the degree to which correlations between voter issue positions and issue positions ascribed to preferred candidates arise because of projection onto the candidate or persuasion by the candidate. Secondly, the model is truly dynamic, in the sense that it is dependent on longitudinal data for its proper estimation. The utility of the model is certified by the goodness of fit achieved when applied to 1972–76 panel data for a sample of the national electorate.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                le
                Lecturas de Economía
                Lect. Econ.
                Universidad de Antioquia (Medellín, Antioquia, Colombia )
                0120-2596
                December 2022
                : 97
                : 113-148
                Affiliations
                [1] Bogotá Bogotá orgnameUniversidad Militar Nueva Granada Colombia luis.sandoval@ 123456unimilitar.edu.co
                [2] Bogotá orgnameUniversidad Nacional de Colombia Colombia mmarinj@ 123456unal.edu.co
                Article
                S0120-25962022000200113 S0120-2596(22)00009700113
                10.17533/udea.le.n97a346128
                4558165f-dd76-46d4-b2c3-96b0e5746cb6

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

                History
                : 27 April 2021
                : 07 November 2021
                Page count
                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 71, Pages: 36
                Product

                SciELO Colombia

                Categories
                Artículos

                comportement électoral,développement,violence,principal Components,electoral behavior,development,desarrollo,componentes principales,comportamiento electoral,violencia,composantes principales

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