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      How much should we believe correlations between Arctic cyclones and sea ice extent?

      , , ,
      The Cryosphere
      Copernicus GmbH

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          Abstract

          <p><strong>Abstract.</strong> This paper presents an investigation of the robustness of correlations between characteristics of Arctic summer cyclones and September Arctic sea ice extent. A cyclone identification and tracking algorithm is run for output from 100-year coupled climate model simulations at two resolutions and for 30 years of reanalysis data, using two different tracking variables (mean sea-level pressure, MSLP; and 850<span class="thinspace"></span>hPa vorticity) for identification of the cyclones. The influence of the tracking variable, the spatial resolution of the model, and spatial and temporal sampling on the correlations is then explored. We conclude that the correlations obtained depend on all of these factors and that care should be taken when interpreting the results of such analyses. Previous studies of this type have used around 30 years of reanalysis and observational data, analysed with a single tracking variable. Our results therefore cast some doubt on the conclusions drawn in those studies.</p>

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          Most cited references32

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          The JRA-25 Reanalysis

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            A Model for the Thermodynamic Growth of Sea Ice in Numerical Investigations of Climate

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              The Joint UK Land Environment Simulator (JULES), model description – Part 1: Energy and water fluxes

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                The Cryosphere
                The Cryosphere
                Copernicus GmbH
                1994-0424
                2017
                December 21 2017
                : 11
                : 6
                : 3023-3034
                Article
                10.5194/tc-11-3023-2017
                4591ddac-4197-4e8d-92fe-226a93afa72f
                © 2017

                https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

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