Impact of Weekly Climatic Variables on Weekly Malaria Incidence throughout Thailand: A Country-Based Six-Year Retrospective Study

Abstract

Purpose. This study aimed to evaluate climatic data, including mean temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall, and their association with malaria incidence throughout Thailand from 2012 to 2017. The correlation of climatic parameters including temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall in each province and the weekly malaria incidence was analyzed using Spearman's rank correlation. The results showed that the mean temperature correlated with malaria incidence ( p value < 0.05) in 44 provinces in Thailand. These correlations were frequently found in the western and southern parts of Thailand. Relative humidity correlated with malaria incidence ( p value < 0.05) in 35 provinces. These correlations were frequently found in the northern and northeastern parts of Thailand. Rainfall correlated with malaria incidence ( p value < 0.05) in 38 provinces. These correlations were frequently found in the northern parts and some western parts of Thailand. The impacts of the mean temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall were observed frequently in specific provinces, including Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Trat, Kanchanaburi, Ubonratchathani, and Si Sa Ket. This is the first study to report areas where climatic data are associated with malaria incidence throughout Thailand from 2012 to 2017. These results can map out the climatic change process over time and across the country, which is the foundation for effective early warning systems for malaria, public health awareness campaigns, and the adoption of proper adaption measures that will help in malaria detection, diagnosis, and treatment.