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      Two-stage approaches to the analysis of occupancy data II. The heterogeneous model and conditional likelihood

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          Abstract

          Occupancy models involve both the probability a site is occupied and the probability occupancy is detected. The homogeneous occupancy model, where the occupancy and detection probabilities are the same at each site, admits an orthogonal parameter transformation that yields a two-stage process to calculate the maximum likelihood estimates. In this two-stage approach it is not necessary to simultaneously estimate the occupancy and detection probabilities. We examine the two-stage approach for the heterogeneous occupancy model where the occupancy and detection probabilities now depend on covariates that may vary between sites and over time. This effectively reduces the parameter space, allows the use of existing vector generalised linear models methods to fit models for detection and allows the development of an iterative weighted least squares approach to fit models for occupancy. Efficiency is examined in a simulation study and the full maximum likelihood and two-stage approaches are compared on several data sets.

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          Most cited references14

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          On the statistical analysis of capture experiments

          R Huggins (1989)
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            Modeling species occurrence dynamics with multiple states and imperfect detection.

            Recent extensions of occupancy modeling have focused not only on the distribution of species over space, but also on additional state variables (e.g., reproducing or not, with or without disease organisms, relative abundance categories) that provide extra information about occupied sites. These biologist-driven extensions are characterized by ambiguity in both species presence and correct state classification, caused by imperfect detection. We first show the relationships between independently published approaches to the modeling of multistate occupancy. We then extend the pattern-based modeling to the case of sampling over multiple seasons or years in order to estimate state transition probabilities associated with system dynamics. The methodology and its potential for addressing relevant ecological questions are demonstrated using both maximum likelihood (occupancy and successful reproduction dynamics of California Spotted Owl) and Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation approaches (changes in relative abundance of green frogs in Maryland). Just as multistate capture-recapture modeling has revolutionized the study of individual marked animals, we believe that multistate occupancy modeling will dramatically increase our ability to address interesting questions about ecological processes underlying population-level dynamics.
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              Design of occupancy studies with imperfect detection

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                30 March 2018
                Article
                1803.11354
                460e005e-f929-4207-954e-9d0fe116bc99

                http://arxiv.org/licenses/nonexclusive-distrib/1.0/

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                Custom metadata
                stat.ME math.ST stat.CO stat.TH

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