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      Vulnerabilidad socioeconómica al potencial incremento del nivel del mar generado por el cambio climático en Barcelona-Lechería- Puerto La Cruz- Guanta, estado Anzoátegui, Venezuela Translated title: Socioeconomical vulnerability to potential sea level rise generated by climatic change at Barcelona-Lechería- Puerto La Cruz- Guanta, Estado Anzoátegui, Venezuela

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          Abstract

          La influencia humana en el calentamiento del sistema climático es evidente. Este incremento de temperatura impactará en diferentes maneras y grados, el balance hídrico, las actividades económicas, la biodiversidad, la salud, los modos de vida, las migraciones y el ascenso del nivel del mar. El objetivo de este estudio es evaluar la vulnerabilidad socioambiental al incremento potencial del nivel del mar, enfatizando en la pérdida de tierra como un impacto físico relevante, en el sector Barcelona-Lechería-Puerto La Cruz-Guanta, estado Anzoátegui, Venezuela. Se aplicó la Metodología Común: siete pasos para evaluar la vulnerabilidad en zonas costeras. Se presentan algunos de los resultados obtenidos en las dos primeras etapas metodológicas, referidas a la delimitación y caracterización socioeconómica del área de estudio, a fin de identificar la cantidad de habitantes y viviendas en situación de riesgo. Se concluye que la población y viviendas afectadas a causa del potencial incremento de 0,5 m en el nivel del mar, corresponde respectivamente a 41 % y 36 % aproximadamente del área estudiada. El ordenamiento territorial urbano y la aplicación estricta de las regulaciones ambientales existentes, ofrecen el sustento a la planificación costera necesaria para enfrentar los efectos paulatinos del incremento del nivel del mar.

          Translated abstract

          The human influence in the warming of the climatic system is evident. This increase of temperature will affect in different ways and degrees aspects such as the hydric balance, the economic activities, the biodiversity, the health, the ways of life, the migrations and the ascent of the level of the sea. The objective of this study is to evaluate the socioambiental vulnerability to the potential increase of the level of the sea, emphasizing in the loss of land like as relevant physical impact, in the sector Barcelona-Lecheria-Puerto La Cuz-Guanta, Anzoátegui state, Venezuela. The Common Methodology was applied: seven steps to evaluate the vulnerability at coastal areas. Some of the results obtained in the two first methodologic stages, are presented, concerning to the delimitation and socioeconomic characterization of the study area, to identify the vulnerable number of people and households. It conclude that the population and households at risk because of the potential sea level rise of 0.5 m in, corresponding respectively to 41 % and 36 % approximately of the impacted area. The urban land use and strict implementation of environmental regulations provide the lift needed to coastal planning to gradually confront the effects of global change.

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          Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a 'beyond 4°C world' in the twenty-first century.

          The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4°C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m--the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4°C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed.
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            Reconstructing sea level from paleo and projected temperatures 200 to 2100 ad

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              Estimating coastal recession due to sea level rise: beyond the Bruun rule

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                t
                Terra
                Terra
                Instituto de Geografía y Desarrollo Regional y de los Postgrado en Geografía, FHE, UCV (Caracas, DF, Venezuela )
                1012-7089
                December 2015
                : 31
                : 50
                : 81-107
                Article
                S1012-70892015000200005 S1012-7089(15)03105000005
                46226de7-7256-4502-92ae-d795065ba1e2

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                History
                : 28 May 2015
                : 15 March 2015
                Page count
                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 46, Pages: 27
                Product

                SciELO Venezuela

                Categories
                Artículos

                vulnerability,risk,housing,population,sea level,climate change,vulnerabilidad,riesgo,vivienda,población,nivel del mar,cambio climático

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