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      Assessing the Impact of Aging on Burden of Disease

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          In this study, we presented a theoretical model to measure aging rate in OECD countries, quantitatively measuring the effect of aging rate on disease patterns in each country and explaining how these effects were obtained. The purpose of this study was to investigate how disease burden varies according to the level of medical infrastructure and changes in aging index using OECD aging data and WHO disease burden data.


          This study used OECD Health data and global burden of disease data from the WHO in 2000 and 2012. We applied a difference-in-differences (DID) model was used to analyze effects of aging.


          Disease burdens increased over time, especially in the aging population of middle-aged. In the case of loss of life due to premature death, the number of middle-aged and older population was increased significantly. When we examined the econometric model after controlling related factors, there was a significant increase in loss of life due to illness and premature death. On the other hand, the group of piles at the aging level had a significant positive effect on Years of Life Lost (YLL). Although the interaction effect as an important variable showing double difference effect of aging did not affect Disability adjusted Life Year (DALY), it showed a significant positive effect on YLL.


          Loss of life due to death of the elderly was relatively higher than that of the elderly. Therefore, the impact of population aging on medical resources and medical expenditures in the future should consider population structure changes, disease burden by age group, and interactions of these two incremental factors.

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          Most cited references 15

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          Medical-care expenditure: a cross-national survey.

           Ian Newhouse (1976)
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            Population aging and the growth of health expenditures.

            To what extent can rising per capita health expenditures be attributed to the changing age composition of the population? While numerous projections have been made, all have been based on cross-sectional spending differences between individuals at a single point in time, rather than on national expenditures as the age structure of the population changes over time. Cross-sectional and time series analyses of 20 countries in the years 1960-1988 show population aging is associated with higher health expenditures if no other variables are allowed in the equation; this "effect," however, is due to the secondary association of aging with rising per capita income and other omitted trend variables. Once these factors are controlled for, there is no longer any discernible association between age structure and health care costs. Age affects the allocation of spending, but not the total amount of funds available. The increasing burden of health expenditures is largely a policy and cost management problem rather than a demographic one.
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              Population Ageing and Health Care Expenditure: New Evidence on the "Red Herring"


                Author and article information

                [1. ] Dept. of Nursing, Pyeongtaek University, Gyeonggi-do, Republic of Korea
                [2. ] Dept. of Nursing, Fareast University, Chungcheongbuk-do, Republic of Korea
                [3. ] Dept. of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, Korea University, Seoul, Republic of Korea
                Author notes
                [* ] Corresponding Author: Email: yoonsj02@
                Iran J Public Health
                Iran. J. Public Health
                Iranian Journal of Public Health
                Tehran University of Medical Sciences
                July 2018
                : 47
                : Suppl 1
                : 33-38
                Copyright© Iranian Public Health Association & Tehran University of Medical Sciences

                This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

                Original Article

                Public health

                aging, disease burden, difference in difference


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