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      The macroeconomic impact of oil earnings uncertainty: New evidence from analyst forecasts

      research-article
      Author(s): a , * , b
      Publication date (Electronic):
      Journal: Energy Economics
      Publisher: Elsevier B.V.
      Keywords: Oil earnings uncertainty, Business cycles, Oil markets, Analyst forecasts

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          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Abstract

          We develop measures of oil earnings uncertainty (OEU) using analyst forecasts drawn from a large firm-level dataset. OEU is related to future economic downturns, so some OEU measures may serve to forecast future downturns. An increase in OEU also has adverse effects on the US oil sector. The results are robust to conditioning on aggregate uncertainty. At the same time, OEU is related to increases in stock prices – unlike aggregate uncertainty, which has the opposite effect. OEU is thus an independent influence on both the oil industry and on economic aggregates.

          Highlights

          • •

            We develop measures of oil earnings uncertainty (OEU) using analyst forecasts and forecast errors.

          • •

            We find that OEU is related to future economic downturns, suggesting it can be used for macroeconomic forecasting.

          • •

            An increase in OEU also has adverse effects on the US oil sector.

          • •

            OEU is related to increases in stock prices – unlike aggregate uncertainty, which has the opposite effect.

          • •

            One factor of OEU appears to be advances in technology in the oil industry.

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          Most cited references30

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          Macroeconomics and Reality

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          Article 0 comments Cited 800 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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            Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market

            Lutz Kilian (2009)
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              Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations

              Finn E. Kydland, Edward Prescott (1982)
              Article 0 comments Cited 365 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Xiaohan Ma
                Roberto Samaniego
                Journal
                Journal ID (nlm-ta): Energy Econ
                Journal ID (iso-abbrev): Energy Econ
                Title: Energy Economics
                Publisher: Elsevier B.V.
                ISSN (Print): 0140-9883
                ISSN (Electronic): 1873-6181
                Publication date PMC-release: 27 June 2020
                Publication date (Electronic): 27 June 2020
                Electronic Location Identifier: 104832
                Affiliations
                [a ]Texas Tech University, Department of Economics, P.O. Box 41014, Lubbock, TX 79409-1014, USA
                [b ]Department of Economics, The George Washington University, 2115 G Street, NW Monroe Hall 340, Washington, DC 20052, USA
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author. xiaohan.ma@ 123456ttu.edu
                Article
                Publisher ID: S0140-9883(20)30172-9 Publisher ID: 104832
                DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104832
                PMC ID: 7320262
                SO-VID: 466282a9-3768-4e22-afea-6182b444c257
                Copyright © © 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
                License:

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                Date received : 20 December 2019
                Date revision received : 30 May 2020
                Date accepted : 8 June 2020
                Categories
                Subject: Article

                Keywords: oil earnings uncertainty,business cycles,oil markets,analyst forecasts
                Data availability:
                Keywords: oil earnings uncertainty, business cycles, oil markets, analyst forecasts

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