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      The impact of COVID-19 on reducing carbon emissions: From the angle of international student mobility

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          Abstract

          Global carbon emissions have been rapidly increasing in recent years, negatively influencing the global climate. Thereby, it is urgent to reduce carbon emissions and achieve carbon neutrality. During the COVID-19 pandemic, strict quarantine plans have led to a sharp decline in the number of international student flights, which will, in turn, decrease aviation carbon emissions. This study predicts the carbon emission reduction caused by the decrease in international student mobility during the COVID-19. The result shows that the carbon emission was about 1326 Gg, a staggering value equivalent to two-thirds of the carbon emissions of the UK’s agriculture sector in a year. Furthermore, this study analyzes the implications of current mitigation policies and makes recommendations for future strategies.

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          Most cited references24

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          A roadmap for rapid decarbonization

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            Aviation and global climate change in the 21st century

            Aviation emissions contribute to the radiative forcing (RF) of climate. Of importance are emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxides (NO x ), aerosols and their precursors (soot and sulphate), and increased cloudiness in the form of persistent linear contrails and induced-cirrus cloudiness. The recent Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) quantified aviation's RF contribution for 2005 based upon 2000 operations data. Aviation has grown strongly over the past years, despite world-changing events in the early 2000s; the average annual passenger traffic growth rate was 5.3% yr−1 between 2000 and 2007, resulting in an increase of passenger traffic of 38%. Presented here are updated values of aviation RF for 2005 based upon new operations data that show an increase in traffic of 22.5%, fuel use of 8.4% and total aviation RF of 14% (excluding induced-cirrus enhancement) over the period 2000–2005. The lack of physical process models and adequate observational data for aviation-induced cirrus effects limit confidence in quantifying their RF contribution. Total aviation RF (excluding induced cirrus) in 2005 was ∼55 mW m−2 (23–87 mW m−2, 90% likelihood range), which was 3.5% (range 1.3–10%, 90% likelihood range) of total anthropogenic forcing. Including estimates for aviation-induced cirrus RF increases the total aviation RF in 2005–78 mW m−2 (38–139 mW m−2, 90% likelihood range), which represents 4.9% of total anthropogenic forcing (2–14%, 90% likelihood range). Future scenarios of aviation emissions for 2050 that are consistent with IPCC SRES A1 and B2 scenario assumptions have been presented that show an increase of fuel usage by factors of 2.7–3.9 over 2000. Simplified calculations of total aviation RF in 2050 indicate increases by factors of 3.0–4.0 over the 2000 value, representing 4–4.7% of total RF (excluding induced cirrus). An examination of a range of future technological options shows that substantive reductions in aviation fuel usage are possible only with the introduction of radical technologies. Incorporation of aviation into an emissions trading system offers the potential for overall (i.e., beyond the aviation sector) CO2 emissions reductions. Proposals exist for introduction of such a system at a European level, but no agreement has been reached at a global level.
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              The global scale, distribution and growth of aviation: Implications for climate change

              Prior to the COVID-19 crisis, global air transport demand was expected to triple between 2020 and 2050. The pandemic, which reduced global air travel significantly, provides an opportunity to discuss the scale, distribution and growth of aviation until 2018, also with a view to consider the climate change implications of a return to volume growth. Industry statistics, data provided by supranational organizations, and national surveys are evaluated to develop a pre-pandemic understanding of air transport demand at global, regional, national and individual scales. Results suggest that the share of the world’s population travelling by air in 2018 was 11%, with at most 4% taking international flights. Data also supports that a minor share of air travelers is responsible for a large share of warming: The percentile of the most frequent fliers – at most 1% of the world population - likely accounts for more than half of the total emissions from passenger air travel. Individual users of private aircraft can contribute to emissions of up to 7,500 t CO2 per year. Findings are specifically relevant with regard to the insight that a large share of global aviation emissions is not covered by policy agreements.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Appl Energy
                Appl Energy
                Applied Energy
                Elsevier Ltd.
                0306-2619
                0306-2619
                27 April 2022
                1 July 2022
                27 April 2022
                : 317
                : 119136
                Affiliations
                [a ]School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Beijing Institute of Technology, Room 411, Central Building, South Street of Zhongguancun, Haidian, Beijing 100084, China
                [b ]School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Beijing Institute of Technology
                [c ]MIT Initiative on the Digital Economy, MIT Sloan School of Management, 245 1st Street, Room E94-1522a, Cambridge, MA 02142, USA
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author.
                Article
                S0306-2619(22)00514-1 119136
                10.1016/j.apenergy.2022.119136
                9042946
                46c9e216-24a7-42a5-92c4-2bdba13c3c68
                © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                : 29 December 2021
                : 8 March 2022
                : 14 April 2022
                Categories
                Article

                aviation carbon emissions,international student mobility,carbon footprint,air travel

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