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      Forecasting tourism recovery amid COVID-19

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          Abstract

          The profound impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on global tourism activity has rendered forecasts of tourism demand obsolete. Accordingly, scholars have begun to seek the best methods to predict the recovery of tourism from the devastating effects of COVID-19. In this study, econometric and judgmental methods were combined to forecast the possible paths to tourism recovery in Hong Kong. The autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model was used to generate baseline forecasts, and Delphi adjustments based on different recovery scenarios were performed to reflect different levels of severity in terms of the pandemic's influence. These forecasts were also used to evaluate the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry in Hong Kong.

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          Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships

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            The coronavirus pandemic – A critical discussion of a tourism research agenda

            Unquestionable, the coronavirus (Covid-19) pandemic is one of the most impactful events of the 21st century and has tremendous effects on tourism. While many tourism researchers worldwide are currently ‘Covid-19 research gap spotting’, we call for more deliberateness and rigor. While we agree that the coronavirus pandemic is unique and relevant to research, we argue that not all effects are worth researching or novel to us. Previous research on crises and disasters do show similar patterns and existing theories can often very well explain the current phenomena. Thus, six illustrative examples are shown how a research agenda could look like. This includes parts where theoretical explanations from tourism are missing, as well as where we think existing knowledge might be subject to a tourism paradigm-shift due to the coronavirus pandemic.
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              Tourism demand modelling and forecasting—A review of recent research

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Ann Tour Res
                Ann Tour Res
                Annals of Tourism Research
                Elsevier Ltd.
                0160-7383
                1873-7722
                16 January 2021
                March 2021
                16 January 2021
                : 87
                : 103149
                Affiliations
                [a ]School of Economics, University of Nottingham Ningbo China, Ningbo, China
                [b ]School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China
                Author notes
                [* ]Corresponding author.
                Article
                S0160-7383(21)00011-6 103149
                10.1016/j.annals.2021.103149
                9754765
                36540616
                48486e5e-a0dc-4520-a366-7f4b66f55d3d
                © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                : 26 October 2020
                : 9 January 2021
                : 12 January 2021
                Categories
                Article

                covid-19,tourism demand,crisis management,delphi method,forecasting scenarios

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