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      Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe.

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          Abstract

          Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          Science
          Science (New York, N.Y.)
          American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
          1095-9203
          0036-8075
          Nov 25 2005
          : 310
          : 5752
          Affiliations
          [1 ] Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany. dagmar.schroeter@gmail.com
          Article
          1115233
          10.1126/science.1115233
          16254151
          487f6a2c-ef1d-4b53-a24b-63a19bacc1f2
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