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      Development and Validation of a Prognostic Nomogram for Predicting Overall Survival for T1 High-Grade Patients After Radical Cystectomy: A Study Based on SEER

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          Abstract

          Objective

          To construct a prognostic model that estimates the probability of overall survival for T1 high-grade bladder cancer patients after radical cystectomy.

          Patients and Methods

          We enrolled 801 patients diagnosed with T1 high grade and received radical cystectomy from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database (2004–2015). All patients were randomly divided into the development group (n = 561) and validation group (n = 240) with the ratio of 7:3. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to filter variables and the Kaplan–Meier method to evaluate survival outcomes. The results of sensitivity analysis determined the variables in the final model. The performance of the model was internally validated by calibration curves, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, and the concordance index (C-index).

          Results

          The mean survival months were 56.086 in the development group and 58.21 in the validation group. Six variables including age, marital status, tumour size, tumour sites, region nodes examined, and N stage were incorporated in the final nomogram. The accuracy of the nomogram for prediction of overall survival was estimated by C-index (0.732; 0.712–0.752) and AUC (0.771 for 3-year; 0.766 for 5-year) in the development group. In the validation group, the C-index of the nomogram was 0.752 (0.723–0.781), and AUC was 0.761 for 3-year as well as 0.793 for 5-year. These results all showed better performance than the AJCC stage. Calibration plots for 3- and 5-year overall survival presented good concordance in both the development and validation group.

          Conclusion

          We have established a prognostic nomogram that provides a more accurate and relevant individualized probability of overall survival for patients with T1HG bladder transitional cell carcinoma after radical cystectomy. It can contribute to improving patient counselling and treatment selection.

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          Most cited references32

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          Global Cancer Statistics 2018: GLOBOCAN Estimates of Incidence and Mortality Worldwide for 36 Cancers in 185 Countries

          This article provides a status report on the global burden of cancer worldwide using the GLOBOCAN 2018 estimates of cancer incidence and mortality produced by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, with a focus on geographic variability across 20 world regions. There will be an estimated 18.1 million new cancer cases (17.0 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) and 9.6 million cancer deaths (9.5 million excluding nonmelanoma skin cancer) in 2018. In both sexes combined, lung cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer (11.6% of the total cases) and the leading cause of cancer death (18.4% of the total cancer deaths), closely followed by female breast cancer (11.6%), prostate cancer (7.1%), and colorectal cancer (6.1%) for incidence and colorectal cancer (9.2%), stomach cancer (8.2%), and liver cancer (8.2%) for mortality. Lung cancer is the most frequent cancer and the leading cause of cancer death among males, followed by prostate and colorectal cancer (for incidence) and liver and stomach cancer (for mortality). Among females, breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, followed by colorectal and lung cancer (for incidence), and vice versa (for mortality); cervical cancer ranks fourth for both incidence and mortality. The most frequently diagnosed cancer and the leading cause of cancer death, however, substantially vary across countries and within each country depending on the degree of economic development and associated social and life style factors. It is noteworthy that high-quality cancer registry data, the basis for planning and implementing evidence-based cancer control programs, are not available in most low- and middle-income countries. The Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development is an international partnership that supports better estimation, as well as the collection and use of local data, to prioritize and evaluate national cancer control efforts. CA: A Cancer Journal for Clinicians 2018;0:1-31. © 2018 American Cancer Society.
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            Multivariable prognostic models: issues in developing models, evaluating assumptions and adequacy, and measuring and reducing errors.

            Multivariable regression models are powerful tools that are used frequently in studies of clinical outcomes. These models can use a mixture of categorical and continuous variables and can handle partially observed (censored) responses. However, uncritical application of modelling techniques can result in models that poorly fit the dataset at hand, or, even more likely, inaccurately predict outcomes on new subjects. One must know how to measure qualities of a model's fit in order to avoid poorly fitted or overfitted models. Measurement of predictive accuracy can be difficult for survival time data in the presence of censoring. We discuss an easily interpretable index of predictive discrimination as well as methods for assessing calibration of predicted survival probabilities. Both types of predictive accuracy should be unbiasedly validated using bootstrapping or cross-validation, before using predictions in a new data series. We discuss some of the hazards of poorly fitted and overfitted regression models and present one modelling strategy that avoids many of the problems discussed. The methods described are applicable to all regression models, but are particularly needed for binary, ordinal, and time-to-event outcomes. Methods are illustrated with a survival analysis in prostate cancer using Cox regression.
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              European Association of Urology Guidelines on Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer (TaT1 and Carcinoma In Situ) - 2019 Update

              This overview presents the updated European Association of Urology (EAU) guidelines for non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC), TaT1, and carcinoma in situ (CIS).
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Int J Gen Med
                Int J Gen Med
                ijgm
                International Journal of General Medicine
                Dove
                1178-7074
                05 April 2022
                2022
                : 15
                : 3753-3765
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Department of Urology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Nanchang University , Nanchang, Jiangxi Province, People’s Republic of China
                Author notes
                Correspondence: Bin Fu; Luyao Chen, Email urofbin@163.com; chenluyao301@163.com
                Article
                354740
                10.2147/IJGM.S354740
                8994665
                35411173
                48df2b4d-a815-4777-b668-4462faf80e12
                © 2022 Zhan et al.

                This work is published and licensed by Dove Medical Press Limited. The full terms of this license are available at https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php and incorporate the Creative Commons Attribution – Non Commercial (unported, v3.0) License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/). By accessing the work you hereby accept the Terms. Non-commercial uses of the work are permitted without any further permission from Dove Medical Press Limited, provided the work is properly attributed. For permission for commercial use of this work, please see paragraphs 4.2 and 5 of our Terms ( https://www.dovepress.com/terms.php).

                Page count
                Figures: 7, Tables: 7, References: 32, Pages: 13
                Funding
                Funded by: the National Natural Science Foundation of P.R. China;
                Funded by: Jiangxi Provincial “Double Thousand Plan” Fund Project;
                This study was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of P.R. China (Grant Nos. 81560419, 81960512, and 81760457) and Jiangxi Provincial “Double Thousand Plan” Fund Project (Grant No. jxsq2019201027).
                Categories
                Original Research

                Medicine
                t1 high-grade,seer,nomogram,prognosis,radical cystectomy,bladder cancer
                Medicine
                t1 high-grade, seer, nomogram, prognosis, radical cystectomy, bladder cancer

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