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      The positive impact of lockdown in Wuhan on containing the COVID-19 outbreak in China

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          Abstract

          Background

          With its epicenter in Wuhan, China, the COVID-19 outbreak was declared a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC) by the World Health Organization (WHO). Consequently, many countries have implemented flight restrictions to China. China itself has imposed a lockdown of the population of Wuhan as well as the entire Hubei province. However, whether these two enormous measures have led to significant changes in the spread of COVID-19 cases remains unclear.

          Methods

          We analyzed available data on the development of confirmed domestic and international COVID-19 cases before and after lockdown measures. We evaluated the correlation of domestic air traffic to the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases and determined the growth curves of COVID-19 cases within China before and after lockdown as well as after changes in COVID-19 diagnostic criteria.

          Results

          Our findings indicate a significant increase in doubling time from 2 days (95% Confidence Interval, CI): 1.9–2.6), to 4 days (95% CI: 3.5–4.3), after imposing lockdown. A further increase is detected after changing diagnostic and testing methodology to 19.3 (95% CI: 15.1–26.3), respectively. Moreover, the correlation between domestic air traffic and COVID-19 spread became weaker following lockdown (before lockdown: r = 0.98, p < 0.05 vs. after lockdown: r = 0.91, p = NS).

          Conclusions

          A significantly decreased growth rate and increased doubling time of cases was observed, which is most likely due to Chinese lockdown measures. A more stringent confinement of people in high risk areas seem to have a potential to slow down the spread of COVID-19.

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          Author and article information

          Journal
          J Travel Med
          J Travel Med
          jtm
          Journal of Travel Medicine
          Oxford University Press
          1195-1982
          1708-8305
          17 March 2020
          17 March 2020
          : taaa037
          Affiliations
          [1 ] Department of Surgery , University of California, Irvine, Orange, California, USA
          [2 ] Division of Infectious diseases , University of Warmia and Mazury, Olszytn, Poland
          [3 ] Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology , Faculty of Veterinary Sciences, Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Wroclaw, Poland
          [4 ] Department of Food Hygiene and Consumer Health Protection , Wroclaw University of Environmental and Life Sciences, Wroclaw, Poland
          [5 ] Department of Surgery (A) , University-Hospital Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf, Germany
          Author notes
          To whom correspondence should be addressed. Tanja Khosrawipour, MD PhD Department of General Surgery, University of California Irvine (UCI) 333 City Boulevard West, Suite 850, Orange, California 92868, USA Tel: + 001(714)456-5443 Email: tkhosrawipour@ 123456gmail.com

          Hien Lau and Veria Khosrawipour equally contributed

          Article
          taaa037
          10.1093/jtm/taaa037
          7184469
          32181488
          4986473c-e405-40e8-8e75-c0150c210161
          © International Society of Travel Medicine 2020. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

          This article is published and distributed under the terms of the Oxford University Press, Standard Journals Publication Model ( https://academic.oup.com/journals/pages/open_access/funder_policies/chorus/standard_publication_model)

          This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the COVID-19 pandemic or until permissions are revoked in writing. Upon expiration of these permissions, PMC is granted a perpetual license to make this article available via PMC and Europe PMC, consistent with existing copyright protections.

          History
          Page count
          Pages: 14
          Categories
          Original Article
          Custom metadata
          accepted-manuscript
          PAP

          pandemic,coronavirus,covid-19,spread,effective,measures
          pandemic, coronavirus, covid-19, spread, effective, measures

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