Risk stratification can be used to reduce the numbers of systematic prostate biopsy procedures, magnetic resonance imaging scans, and targeted prostate biopsies, but clinicians should be aware of the a priori risk of their patient cohort to realize the full benefit of this powerful approach.
Risk stratification in the diagnostic pathway of prostate cancer (PCa) can be used to reduce biopsies and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) scans, while maintaining the detection of clinically significant PCa (csPCa). The use of highly discriminating and well-calibrated models will generate better clinical outcomes if context-dependent thresholds are used.
To retrospectively assess the effect of the upfront use of the Rotterdam Prostate Cancer Risk Calculator (RPCRC) developed in a screening cohort and the RPCRC-MRI developed in a clinical cohort while exploring the need to adapt thresholds in biopsy-naïve men in the PRECISION (Prostate Evaluation for Clinically Important Disease: Sampling Using Image Guidance or Not?) trial.
In the transrectal ultrasonography arm, we evaluated 188 men; in the MRI arm, we evaluated 206 (for the reduction of MRI scans) and 137 (for the reduction of targeted biopsies) men.
Performance was assessed by discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.
The performance of the RPCRC was good. However, intercept adjustment was warranted. Net benefit was observed from a recalibrated probability of 32% for any PCa and 10% for csPCa. After recalibration and applying a threshold of 20% for any PCa or 10% for csPCa, 28% of all biopsies could have been reduced, missing five cases of csPCa. The uncalibrated RPCRC could reduce 35% of all MRI scans, with a threshold of 20% for any PCa or 4% for csPCa. In the MRI arm, performance was good without stressing recalibration. Net benefit was observed from a probability of 22% for any PCa and 7% for csPCa. With a threshold of 20% for any PCa or 4% for csPCa, 9% of all targeted biopsies could be reduced, missing one grade group 2 PCa.
The performance of the RPCRC and RPCRC-MRI in men included in the PRECISION trial was good, but recalibration and adaptation of the risk threshold of the RPCRC are indicated to reach optimal performance.