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      Arrhythmia risk stratification of patients after myocardial infarction using personalized heart models

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          Abstract

          Sudden cardiac death (SCD) from arrhythmias is a leading cause of mortality. For patients at high SCD risk, prophylactic insertion of implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICDs) reduces mortality. Current approaches to identify patients at risk for arrhythmia are, however, of low sensitivity and specificity, which results in a low rate of appropriate ICD therapy. Here, we develop a personalized approach to assess SCD risk in post-infarction patients based on cardiac imaging and computational modelling. We construct personalized three-dimensional computer models of post-infarction hearts from patients' clinical magnetic resonance imaging data and assess the propensity of each model to develop arrhythmia. In a proof-of-concept retrospective study, the virtual heart test significantly outperformed several existing clinical metrics in predicting future arrhythmic events. The robust and non-invasive personalized virtual heart risk assessment may have the potential to prevent SCD and avoid unnecessary ICD implantations.

          Abstract

          Sudden arrhythmic death is a leading cause of mortality, however approaches to identify at-risk patients are of low sensitivity and specificity. Here, the authors develop a personalized approach to assess arrhythmia risk in post-infarction patients based on cardiac imaging and computational modelling that significantly outperforms existing clinical metrics.

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          Most cited references38

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          NIH Image to ImageJ: 25 years of image analysis.

          For the past 25 years NIH Image and ImageJ software have been pioneers as open tools for the analysis of scientific images. We discuss the origins, challenges and solutions of these two programs, and how their history can serve to advise and inform other software projects.
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            ACC/AHA/HRS 2008 Guidelines for Device-Based Therapy of Cardiac Rhythm Abnormalities: a report of the American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Task Force on Practice Guidelines (Writing Committee to Revise the ACC/AHA/NASPE 2002 Guideline Update for Implantation of Cardiac Pacemakers and Antiarrhythmia Devices): developed in collaboration with the American Association for Thoracic Surgery and Society of Thoracic Surgeons.

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              Population-based analysis of sudden cardiac death with and without left ventricular systolic dysfunction: two-year findings from the Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study.

              We sought to evaluate the contribution of left ventricular (LV) dysfunction toward occurrence of sudden cardiac death (SCD) in the general population, and to identify distinguishing characteristics of SCD in the absence of LV dysfunction. Patients who manifest warning symptoms and signs are more likely to undergo evaluation before SCD. Although prevalence of LV dysfunction in this subgroup may overestimate the prevalence in overall SCD, this is the only means of assessment in the general population. All cases of SCD in Multnomah County, Oregon (population 660,486; 2002 to 2004) were prospectively ascertained in the ongoing Oregon Sudden Unexpected Death Study. We retrospectively assessed LV ejection fraction (LVEF) among subjects who underwent evaluation of LV function before SCD (normal: > or =55%; mildly to moderately reduced: 36% to 54%; and severely reduced: < or =35%). Of a total of 714 SCD cases (annual incidence 54 per 100,000), LV function was assessed in 121 (17%). The LVEF was severely reduced in 36 patients (30%), mildly to moderately reduced in 27 (22%), and normal in 58 (48%). Patients with normal LVEF were distinguishable by younger age (66 +/- 15 years vs. 74 +/- 10 years; p = 0.001), higher proportion of females (47% vs. 27%; p = 0.025), higher prevalence of seizure disorder (14% vs. 0%; p = 0.002), and lower prevalence of established coronary artery disease (50% vs. 81%; p < 0.001). In this community-wide study, only one-third of the evaluated SCD cases had severe LV dysfunction meeting current criteria for prophylactic cardioverter-defibrillator implantation. The SCD cases with normal LV function had several distinguishing clinical characteristics. These findings support the aggressive development of alternative screening methods to enhance identification of patients at risk.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Nat Commun
                Nat Commun
                Nature Communications
                Nature Publishing Group
                2041-1723
                10 May 2016
                2016
                : 7
                : 11437
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Institute for Computational Medicine and Department of Biomedical Engineering, Johns Hopkins University , Baltimore, Maryland 21218, USA
                [2 ]Welch Center for Prevention, Epidemiology, and Clinical Research, Department of Epidemiology, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health , Baltimore, Maryland 21287, USA
                [3 ]Division of Cardiology, Department of Medicine, Johns Hopkins Medical Institutions , Baltimore, Maryland 21287, USA
                Author notes
                [*]

                These authors contributed equally to this work.

                Article
                ncomms11437
                10.1038/ncomms11437
                4866040
                27164184
                4a3ceab7-56a3-4879-8106-f1b5c58cabf0
                Copyright © 2016, Nature Publishing Group, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited. All Rights Reserved.

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                History
                : 26 February 2016
                : 24 March 2016
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