Impact of Climate Trends on Tick-Borne Pathogen Transmission

The genera Anaplasma, Ehrlichia, Cowdria, Neorickettsia and Wolbachia encompass a group of obligate intracellular bacteria that reside in vacuoles of eukaryotic cells and were previously placed in taxa based upon morphological, ecological, epidemiological and clinical characteristics. Recent genetic analyses of 16S rRNA genes, groESL and surface protein genes have indicated that the existing taxa designations are flawed. All 16S rRNA gene and groESL sequences deposited in GenBank prior to 2000 and selected sequences deposited thereafter were aligned and phylogenetic trees and bootstrap values were calculated using the neighbour-joining method and compared with trees generated with maximum-probability, maximum-likelihood, majority-rule consensus and parsimony methods. Supported by bootstrap probabilities of at least 54%, 16S rRNA gene comparisons consistently clustered to yield four distinct clades characterized roughly as Anaplasma (including the Ehrlichia phagocytophila group, Ehrlichia platys and Ehrlichia bovis) with a minimum of 96.1% similarity, Ehrlichia (including Cowdria ruminantium) with a minimum of 97.7% similarity, Wolbachia with a minimum of 95.6% similarity and Neorickettsia (including Ehrlichia sennetsu and Ehrlichia risticii) with a minimum of 94.9% similarity. Maximum similarity between clades ranged from 87.1 to 94.9%. Insufficient differences existed among E. phagocytophila, Ehrlichia equi and the human granulocytic ehrlichiosis (HGE) agent to support separate species designations, and this group was at least 98.2% similar to any Anaplasma species. These 16S rRNA gene analyses are strongly supported by similar groESL clades, as well as biological and antigenic characteristics. It is proposed that all members of the tribes Ehrlichieae and Wolbachieae be transferred to the family Anaplasmataceae and that the tribe structure of the family Rickettsiaceae be eliminated. The genus Anaplasma should be emended to include Anaplasma (Ehrlichia) phagocytophila comb. nov. (which also encompasses the former E. equi and the HGE agent), Anaplasma (Ehrlichia) bovis comb. nov. and Anaplasma (Ehrlichia) platys comb. nov., the genus Ehrlichia should be emended to include Ehrlichia (Cowdria) ruminantium comb. nov. and the genus Neorickettsia should be emended to include Neorickettsia (Ehrlichia) risticii comb. nov. and Neorickettsia (Ehrlichia) sennetsu comb. nov.

Zoonotic tick-borne diseases are an increasing health burden in Europe and there is speculation that this is partly due to climate change affecting vector biology and disease transmission. Data on the vector tick Ixodes ricinus suggest that an extension of its northern and altitude range has been accompanied by an increased prevalence of tick-borne encephalitis. Climate change may also be partly responsible for the change in distribution of Dermacentor reticulatus. Increased winter activity of I. ricinus is probably due to warmer winters and a retrospective study suggests that hotter summers will change the dynamics and pattern of seasonal activity, resulting in the bulk of the tick population becoming active in the latter part of the year. Climate suitability models predict that eight important tick species are likely to establish more northern permanent populations in a climate-warming scenario. However, the complex ecology and epidemiology of such tick-borne diseases as Lyme borreliosis and tick-borne encephalitis make it difficult to implicate climate change as the main cause of their increasing prevalence. Climate change models are required that take account of the dynamic biological processes involved in vector abundance and pathogen transmission in order to predict future tick-borne disease scenarios.

Background Ixodes ricinus is the main vector in Europe of human-pathogenic Lyme borreliosis (LB) spirochaetes, the tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) and other pathogens of humans and domesticated mammals. The results of a previous 1994 questionnaire, directed at people living in Central and North Sweden (Svealand and Norrland) and aiming to gather information about tick exposure for humans and domestic animals, suggested that Ixodes ricinus ticks had become more widespread in Central Sweden and the southern part of North Sweden from the early 1980s to the early 1990s. To investigate whether the expansion of the tick's northern geographical range and the increasing abundance of ticks in Sweden were still occurring, in 2009 we performed a follow-up survey 16 years after the initial study. Methods A questionnaire similar to the one used in the 1994 study was published in Swedish magazines aimed at dog owners, home owners, and hunters. The questionnaire was published together with a popular science article about the tick's biology and role as a pathogen vector in Sweden. The magazines were selected to get information from people familiar with ticks and who spend time in areas where ticks might be present. Results Analyses of data from both surveys revealed that during the near 30-year period from the early 1980s to 2008, I. ricinus has expanded its distribution range northwards. In the early 1990s ticks were found in new areas along the northern coastline of the Baltic Sea, while in the 2009 study, ticks were reported for the first time from many locations in North Sweden. This included locations as far north as 66°N and places in the interior part of North Sweden. During this 16-year period the tick's range in Sweden was estimated to have increased by 9.9%. Most of the range expansion occurred in North Sweden (north of 60°N) where the tick's coverage area doubled from 12.5% in the early 1990s to 26.8% in 2008. Moreover, according to the respondents, the abundance of ticks had increased markedly in LB- and TBE-endemic areas in South (Götaland) and Central Sweden. Conclusions The results suggest that I. ricinus has expanded its range in North Sweden and has become distinctly more abundant in Central and South Sweden during the last three decades. However, in the northern mountain region I. ricinus is still absent. The increased abundance of the tick can be explained by two main factors: First, the high availability of large numbers of important tick maintenance hosts, i.e., cervids, particularly roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) during the last three decades. Second, a warmer climate with milder winters and a prolonged growing season that permits greater survival and proliferation over a larger geographical area of both the tick itself and deer. High reproductive potential of roe deer, high tick infestation rate and the tendency of roe deer to disperse great distances may explain the range expansion of I. ricinus and particularly the appearance of new TBEV foci far away from old TBEV-endemic localities. The geographical presence of LB in Sweden corresponds to the distribution of I. ricinus. Thus, LB is now an emerging disease risk in many parts of North Sweden. Unless countermeasures are undertaken to keep the deer populations, particularly C. capreolus and Dama dama, at the relatively low levels that prevailed before the late 1970s - especially in and around urban areas where human population density is high - by e.g. reduced hunting of red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and lynx (Lynx lynx), the incidences of human LB and TBE are expected to continue to be high or even to increase in Sweden in coming decades.