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      Modified Maturity Offset Prediction Equations: Validation in Independent Longitudinal Samples of Boys and Girls

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          Predicted maturity offset and age at peak height velocity are increasingly used with youth athletes, although validation studies of the equations indicated major limitations. The equations have since been modified and simplified.


          The objective of this study was to validate the new maturity offset prediction equations in independent longitudinal samples of boys and girls.


          Two new equations for boys with chronological age and sitting height and chronological age and stature as predictors, and one equation for girls with chronological age and stature as predictors were evaluated in serial data from the Wrocław Growth Study, 193 boys (aged 8–18 years) and 198 girls (aged 8–16 years). Observed age at peak height velocity for each youth was estimated with the Preece–Baines Model 1. The original prediction equations were included for comparison. Predicted age at peak height velocity was the difference between chronological age at prediction and maturity offset.


          Predicted ages at peak height velocity with the new equations approximated observed ages at peak height velocity in average maturing boys near the time of peak height velocity; a corresponding window for average maturing girls was not apparent. Compared with observed age at peak height velocity, predicted ages at peak height velocity with the new and original equations were consistently later in early maturing youth and earlier in late maturing youth of both sexes. Predicted ages at peak height velocity with the new equations had reduced variation compared with the original equations and especially observed ages at peak height velocity. Intra-individual variation in predicted ages at peak height velocity with all equations was considerable.


          The new equations are useful for average maturing boys close to the time of peak height velocity; there does not appear to be a clear window for average maturing girls. The new and original equations have major limitations with early and late maturing boys and girls.

          Electronic supplementary material

          The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s40279-017-0750-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

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          Most cited references 61

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          Examination of US puberty-timing data from 1940 to 1994 for secular trends: panel findings.

          Whether children, especially girls, are entering and progressing through puberty earlier today than in the mid-1900s has been debated. Secular trend analysis, based on available data, is limited by data comparability among studies in different populations, in different periods of time, and using different methods. As a result, conclusions from data comparisons have not been consistent. An expert panel was asked to evaluate the weight of evidence for whether the data, collected from 1940 to 1994, are sufficient to suggest or establish a secular trend in the timing of puberty markers in US boys or girls. A majority of the panelists agreed that data are sufficient to suggest a trend toward an earlier breast development onset and menarche in girls but not for other female pubertal markers. A minority of panelists concluded that the current data on girls' puberty timing for any marker are insufficient. Almost all panelists concluded, on the basis of few studies and reliability issues of some male puberty markers, that current data for boys are insufficient to evaluate secular trends in male pubertal development. The panel agreed that altered puberty timing should be considered an adverse effect, although the magnitude of change considered adverse was not assessed. The panel recommended (1) additional analyses of existing puberty-timing data to examine secular trends and trends in the temporal sequence of pubertal events; (2) the development of biomarkers for pubertal timing and methods to discriminate fat versus breast tissue, and (3) establishment of cohorts to examine pubertal markers longitudinally within the same individuals.
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            The Football Association medical research programme: an audit of injuries in academy youth football.

            To undertake a prospective epidemiological study of the injuries sustained in English youth academy football over two competitive seasons. Player injuries were annotated by medical staff at 38 English football club youth academies. A specific injury audit questionnaire was used together with a weekly return form that documented each club's current injury status. A total of 3805 injuries were reported over two complete seasons (June to May) with an average injury rate of 0.40 per player per season. The mean (SD) number of days absent for each injury was 21.9 (33.63), with an average of 2.31 (3.66) games missed per injury. The total amount of time absent through injury equated to about 6% of the player's development time. Players in the higher age groups (17-19 years) were more likely to receive an injury than those in the younger age groups (9-16 years). Injury incidence varied throughout the season, with training injuries peaking in January (p<0.05) and competition injuries peaking in October (p<0.05). Competition injuries accounted for 50.4% of the total, with 36% of these occurring in the last third of each half. Strains (31%) and sprains (20%) were the main injury types, predominantly affecting the lower limb, with a similar proportion of injuries affecting the thigh (19%), ankle (19%), and knee (18%). Growth related conditions, including Sever's disease and Osgood-Schlatter's disease, accounted for 5% of total injuries, peaking in the under 13 age group for Osgood-Schlatter's disease and the under 11 age group for Sever's disease. The rate of re-injury of exactly the same anatomical structure was 3%. Footballers are at high risk of injury and there is a need to investigate ways of reducing this risk. Injury incidence at academy level is approximately half that of the professional game. Academy players probably have much less exposure to injury than their full time counterparts. Areas that warrant further attention include the link between musculoskeletal development and the onset of youth related conditions such as Sever's disease and Osgood-Schlatter's disease, the significant number of non-contact injuries that occur in academy football, and the increased rates of injury during preseason training and after the mid season break. This study has highlighted the nature and severity of injuries that occur at academy level, and the third part of the audit process now needs to be undertaken: the implementation of strategies to reduce the number of injuries encountered at this level.
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              Talent Identification in Soccer: The Role of Maturity Status on Physical, Physiological and Technical Characteristics


                Author and article information

                Sports Med
                Sports Med
                Sports Medicine (Auckland, N.z.)
                Springer International Publishing (Cham )
                12 June 2017
                12 June 2017
                : 48
                : 1
                : 221-236
                [1 ]ISNI 0000 0001 1958 0162, GRID grid.413454.3, Department of Anthropology, Hirszfeld Institute of Immunology and Experimental Therapy, , Polish Academy of Sciences, ; Wrocław, Poland
                [2 ]ISNI 0000000121548364, GRID grid.55460.32, Department of Kinesiology and Health Education, , University of Texas, ; Austin, TX USA
                [3 ]10735 FM 2668, Bay City, TX 77414 USA
                © The Author(s) 2017

                Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made.

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                © Springer International Publishing AG, part of Springer Nature 2018


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