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      Recently spreading human monkeypox virus infection and its transmission during COVID-19 pandemic period: A travelers' prospective

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          Abstract

          Presently, monkeypox has emerged in multiple countries with many confirmed cases, posing a global public health threat. A link has been found between air travel and the international spread of infectious diseases including the previous spread of monkeypox.

          This article highlights the spread of COVID-19 through air travel, and then monkeypox spread from one country to another. Scientists are trying to establish the air travel and monkeypox spread. Any travel link from an endemic country has not been proven yet to describe the rising number of current monkeypox cases in non-endemic countries. Due to the quantification method, the direct link of the diseases with air travel might be difficult to establish. However, we have also developed different statistical models of the confirmed cases and the number of air travelers per year (noted in countries where monkeypox has spread). As there is no direct link, these models might show a probability of an indirect association of air travel. However, more strong evidence is needed in this direction.

          Although, the sudden appearance of monkeypox cases in multiple countries in a few days demands comprehensive epidemiological investigations, genome sequencing, and phylogenetic analysis of viral isolates to prove the travel link from an endemic country. At the same time, it is also necessary to know the real cause while also exploring any direct and/or indirect travel links between different countries. Similarly, the possibility of any zoonotic event should find out to understand the more about natural animal reservoir(s) for the monkeypox virus, which is unknown until now. However, this report will help researchers for conducting further explorative research and investigations for understanding transmission patterns and guide policymakers to make proactive policies to limit the spread of monkeypox.

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          Most cited references30

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          The effect of travel restrictions on the spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak

          Motivated by the rapid spread of COVID-19 in Mainland China, we use a global metapopulation disease transmission model to project the impact of travel limitations on the national and international spread of the epidemic. The model is calibrated based on internationally reported cases, and shows that at the start of the travel ban from Wuhan on 23 January 2020, most Chinese cities had already received many infected travelers. The travel quarantine of Wuhan delayed the overall epidemic progression by only 3 to 5 days in Mainland China, but has a more marked effect at the international scale, where case importations were reduced by nearly 80% until mid February. Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
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            Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak

            Significance To contain the global spread of the 2019 novel coronavirus epidemic (COVID-19), border control measures, such as airport screening and travel restrictions, have been implemented in several countries. Our results show that these measures likely slowed the rate of exportation from mainland China to other countries, but are insufficient to contain the global spread of COVID-19. With most cases arriving during the asymptomatic incubation period, our results suggest that rapid contact tracing is essential both within the epicenter and at importation sites to limit human-to-human transmission outside of mainland China.
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              Multiscale mobility networks and the spatial spreading of infectious diseases.

              Among the realistic ingredients to be considered in the computational modeling of infectious diseases, human mobility represents a crucial challenge both on the theoretical side and in view of the limited availability of empirical data. To study the interplay between short-scale commuting flows and long-range airline traffic in shaping the spatiotemporal pattern of a global epidemic we (i) analyze mobility data from 29 countries around the world and find a gravity model able to provide a global description of commuting patterns up to 300 kms and (ii) integrate in a worldwide-structured metapopulation epidemic model a timescale-separation technique for evaluating the force of infection due to multiscale mobility processes in the disease dynamics. Commuting flows are found, on average, to be one order of magnitude larger than airline flows. However, their introduction into the worldwide model shows that the large-scale pattern of the simulated epidemic exhibits only small variations with respect to the baseline case where only airline traffic is considered. The presence of short-range mobility increases, however, the synchronization of subpopulations in close proximity and affects the epidemic behavior at the periphery of the airline transportation infrastructure. The present approach outlines the possibility for the definition of layered computational approaches where different modeling assumptions and granularities can be used consistently in a unifying multiscale framework.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Travel Med Infect Dis
                Travel Med Infect Dis
                Travel Medicine and Infectious Disease
                Elsevier Ltd.
                1477-8939
                1873-0442
                29 June 2022
                29 June 2022
                : 102398
                Affiliations
                [a ]Department of Zoology, Fakir Mohan University, Vyasa Vihar, Balasore, 756020, Odisha, India
                [b ]Division of Pathology, ICAR-Indian Veterinary Research Institute, Izatnagar, Bareilly, 243122, Uttar Pradesh, India
                [c ]Department of Biotechnology, School of Life Science and Biotechnology, Adamas University, Kolkata, West Bengal, 700126, India
                Author notes
                []Corresponding author.
                [1]

                These authors contributed equally to this work.

                Article
                S1477-8939(22)00144-2 102398
                10.1016/j.tmaid.2022.102398
                9239924
                35779853
                4adc2cb8-0ee4-4d07-9a68-a915a420be72
                © 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

                Since January 2020 Elsevier has created a COVID-19 resource centre with free information in English and Mandarin on the novel coronavirus COVID-19. The COVID-19 resource centre is hosted on Elsevier Connect, the company's public news and information website. Elsevier hereby grants permission to make all its COVID-19-related research that is available on the COVID-19 resource centre - including this research content - immediately available in PubMed Central and other publicly funded repositories, such as the WHO COVID database with rights for unrestricted research re-use and analyses in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for free by Elsevier for as long as the COVID-19 resource centre remains active.

                History
                : 26 May 2022
                : 24 June 2022
                : 25 June 2022
                Categories
                Article

                Infectious disease & Microbiology
                monkeypox virus,international travel,sars-cov-2 virus,country-wise transmission

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