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      Changes in the Timing of Snowmelt and Streamflow in Colorado: A Response to Recent Warming

      Journal of Climate
      American Meteorological Society

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          Potential impacts of a warming climate on water availability in snow-dominated regions.

          All currently available climate models predict a near-surface warming trend under the influence of rising levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. In addition to the direct effects on climate--for example, on the frequency of heatwaves--this increase in surface temperatures has important consequences for the hydrological cycle, particularly in regions where water supply is currently dominated by melting snow or ice. In a warmer world, less winter precipitation falls as snow and the melting of winter snow occurs earlier in spring. Even without any changes in precipitation intensity, both of these effects lead to a shift in peak river runoff to winter and early spring, away from summer and autumn when demand is highest. Where storage capacities are not sufficient, much of the winter runoff will immediately be lost to the oceans. With more than one-sixth of the Earth's population relying on glaciers and seasonal snow packs for their water supply, the consequences of these hydrological changes for future water availability--predicted with high confidence and already diagnosed in some regions--are likely to be severe.
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            Human-induced changes in the hydrology of the western United States.

            Observations have shown that the hydrological cycle of the western United States changed significantly over the last half of the 20th century. We present a regional, multivariable climate change detection and attribution study, using a high-resolution hydrologic model forced by global climate models, focusing on the changes that have already affected this primarily arid region with a large and growing population. The results show that up to 60% of the climate-related trends of river flow, winter air temperature, and snow pack between 1950 and 1999 are human-induced. These results are robust to perturbation of study variates and methods. They portend, in conjunction with previous work, a coming crisis in water supply for the western United States.
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              Changes in the Onset of Spring in the Western United States

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Journal of Climate
                J. Climate
                American Meteorological Society
                0894-8755
                1520-0442
                May 2010
                May 2010
                : 23
                : 9
                : 2293-2306
                Article
                10.1175/2009JCLI2951.1
                4b159cd0-527b-4085-a86b-e01dc63dec68
                © 2010
                History

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