18
views
0
recommends
+1 Recommend
0 collections
    0
    shares
      • Record: found
      • Abstract: found
      • Article: found
      Is Open Access

      The impact of population ageing on end-of-life care in Scotland: projections of place of death and recommendations for future service provision

      research-article

      Read this article at

      Bookmark
          There is no author summary for this article yet. Authors can add summaries to their articles on ScienceOpen to make them more accessible to a non-specialist audience.

          Abstract

          Background

          Global annual deaths are rising. It is essential to examine where future deaths may occur to facilitate decisions regarding future service provision and resource allocation.

          Aims

          To project where people will die from 2017 to 2040 in an ageing country with advanced integrated palliative care, and to prioritise recommendations based on these trends.

          Methods

          Population-based trend analysis of place of death for people that died in Scotland (2004–2016) and projections using simple linear modelling (2017–2040); Transparent Expert Consultation to prioritise recommendations in response to projections.

          Results

          Deaths are projected to increase by 15.9% from 56,728 in 2016 (32.8% aged 85+ years) to 65,757 deaths in 2040 (45% aged 85+ years). Between 2004 and 2016, proportions of home and care home deaths increased (19.8–23.4% and 14.5–18.8%), while the proportion of hospital deaths declined (58.0–50.1%). If current trends continue, the numbers of deaths at home and in care homes will increase, and two-thirds will die outside hospital by 2040. To sustain current trends, priorities include: 1) to increase and upskill a community health and social care workforce through education, training and valuing of care work; 2) to build community care capacity through informal carer support and community engagement; 3) to stimulate a realistic public debate on death, dying and sustainable funding.

          Conclusion

          To sustain current trends, health and social care provision in the community needs to grow to support nearly 60% more people at the end-of-life by 2040; otherwise hospital deaths will increase.

          Related collections

          Most cited references35

          • Record: found
          • Abstract: found
          • Article: not found

          Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of home palliative care services for adults with advanced illness and their caregivers

          Background Extensive evidence shows that well over 50% of people prefer to be cared for and to die at home provided circumstances allow choice. Despite best efforts and policies, one-third or less of all deaths take place at home in many countries of the world. Objectives 1. To quantify the effect of home palliative care services for adult patients with advanced illness and their family caregivers on patients' odds of dying at home; 2. to examine the clinical effectiveness of home palliative care services on other outcomes for patients and their caregivers such as symptom control, quality of life, caregiver distress and satisfaction with care; 3. to compare the resource use and costs associated with these services; 4. to critically appraise and summarise the current evidence on cost-effectiveness. Search methods We searched 12 electronic databases up to November 2012. We checked the reference lists of all included studies, 49 relevant systematic reviews, four key textbooks and recent conference abstracts. We contacted 17 experts and researchers for unpublished data. Selection criteria We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs), controlled clinical trials (CCTs), controlled before and after studies (CBAs) and interrupted time series (ITSs) evaluating the impact of home palliative care services on outcomes for adults with advanced illness or their family caregivers, or both. Data collection and analysis One review author assessed the identified titles and abstracts. Two independent reviewers performed assessment of all potentially relevant studies, data extraction and assessment of methodological quality. We carried out meta-analysis where appropriate and calculated numbers needed to treat to benefit (NNTBs) for the primary outcome (death at home). Main results We identified 23 studies (16 RCTs, 6 of high quality), including 37,561 participants and 4042 family caregivers, largely with advanced cancer but also congestive heart failure (CHF), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), HIV/AIDS and multiple sclerosis (MS), among other conditions. Meta-analysis showed increased odds of dying at home (odds ratio (OR) 2.21, 95% CI 1.31 to 3.71; Z = 2.98, P value = 0.003; Chi2 = 20.57, degrees of freedom (df) = 6, P value = 0.002; I2 = 71%; NNTB 5, 95% CI 3 to 14 (seven trials with 1222 participants, three of high quality)). In addition, narrative synthesis showed evidence of small but statistically significant beneficial effects of home palliative care services compared to usual care on reducing symptom burden for patients (three trials, two of high quality, and one CBA with 2107 participants) and of no effect on caregiver grief (three RCTs, two of high quality, and one CBA with 2113 caregivers). Evidence on cost-effectiveness (six studies) is inconclusive. Authors' conclusions The results provide clear and reliable evidence that home palliative care increases the chance of dying at home and reduces symptom burden in particular for patients with cancer, without impacting on caregiver grief. This justifies providing home palliative care for patients who wish to die at home. More work is needed to study cost-effectiveness especially for people with non-malignant conditions, assessing place of death and appropriate outcomes that are sensitive to change and valid in these populations, and to compare different models of home palliative care, in powered studies. PLAIN LANGUAGE SUMMARY Effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of home-based palliative care services for adults with advanced illness and their caregivers When faced with the prospect of dying with an advanced illness, the majority of people prefer to die at home, yet in many countries around the world they are most likely to die in hospital. We reviewed all known studies that evaluated home palliative care services, i.e. experienced home care teams of health professionals specialised in the control of a wide range of problems associated with advanced illness – physical, psychological, social, spiritual. We wanted to see how much of a difference these services make to people's chances of dying at home, but also to other important aspects for patients towards the end of life, such as symptoms (e.g. pain) and family distress. We also compared the impact on the costs with care. On the basis of 23 studies including 37,561 patients and 4042 family caregivers, we found that when someone with an advanced illness gets home palliative care, their chances of dying at home more than double. Home palliative care services also help reduce the symptom burden people may experience as a result of advanced illness, without increasing grief for family caregivers after the patient dies. In these circumstances, patients who wish to die at home should be offered home palliative care. There is still scope to improve home palliative care services and increase the benefits for patients and families without raising costs.
            Bookmark
            • Record: found
            • Abstract: found
            • Article: not found

            Where do people die? An international comparison of the percentage of deaths occurring in hospital and residential aged care settings in 45 populations, using published and available statistics.

            Place of death, specifically the percentage who die in hospital or residential aged care, is largely unreported. This paper presents a cross-national comparison of location of death information from published reports and available data. Reports of deaths occurring in hospitals, residential aged care facilities, and other locations for periods since 2001 were compiled. Over 16 million deaths are reported in 45 populations. Half reported 54 % or more of all deaths occurred in hospitals, ranging from Japan (78 %) to China (20 %). Of 21 populations reporting deaths of older people, a median of 18 % died in residential aged care, with percentages doubling with each 10-year increase in age, and 40 % higher among women. This place of death study includes more populations than any other known. In many populations, residential aged care was an important site of death for older people, indicating the need to optimise models of end-of-life care in this setting. For many countries, more standardised reporting of place of death would inform policies and planning of services to support end-of-life care.
              Bookmark
              • Record: found
              • Abstract: found
              • Article: found
              Is Open Access

              What is the impact of population ageing on the future provision of end-of-life care? Population-based projections of place of death

              Background: Population ageing represents a global challenge for future end-of-life care. Given new trends in place of death, it is vital to examine where the rising number of deaths will occur in future years and implications for health and social care. Aim: To project where people will die from 2015 to 2040 across all care settings in England and Wales. Design: Population-based trend analysis and projections using simple linear modelling. Age- and gender-specific proportions of deaths in hospital, care home, home, hospice and ‘other’ were applied to numbers of expected future deaths. Setting/population: All deaths (2004–2014) from death registration data and predicted deaths (2015–2040) from official population forecasts in England and Wales. Results: Annual deaths are projected to increase from 501,424 in 2014 (38.8% aged 85 years and over) to 635,814 in 2040 (53.6% aged 85 years and over). Between 2004 and 2014, proportions of home and care home deaths increased (18.3%–22.9% and 16.7%– 21.2%) while hospital deaths declined (57.9%–48.1%). If current trends continue, numbers of deaths in care homes and homes will increase by 108.1% and 88.6%, with care home the most common place of death by 2040. If care home capacity does not expand and additional deaths occur in hospital, hospital deaths will start rising by 2023. Conclusion: To sustain current trends, end-of-life care provision in care homes and the community needs to double by 2040. An infrastructure across care settings that supports rising annual deaths is urgently needed; otherwise, hospital deaths will increase.
                Bookmark

                Author and article information

                Contributors
                Anne.finucane@mariecurie.org.uk
                anna.bone@kcl.ac.uk
                Catherine.evans@kcl.ac.uk
                Barbara.gomes@kcl.ac.uk
                Richard.Meade@mariecurie.org.uk
                irene.higginson@kcl.ac.uk
                scott.murray@ed.ac.uk
                Journal
                BMC Palliat Care
                BMC Palliat Care
                BMC Palliative Care
                BioMed Central (London )
                1472-684X
                12 December 2019
                12 December 2019
                2019
                : 18
                : 112
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Marie Curie Hospice Edinburgh, 45 Frogston Road West, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
                [2 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 7988, GRID grid.4305.2, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, ; Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
                [3 ]ISNI 0000 0001 2322 6764, GRID grid.13097.3c, Cicely Saunders Institute of Palliative Care, Policy and Rehabilitation, King’s College London, ; Bessemer Road, Denmark Hill, London, SE5 9PJ UK
                [4 ]ISNI 0000 0000 9511 4342, GRID grid.8051.c, Faculty of Medicine, , University of Coimbra, ; Coimbra, Portugal
                [5 ]Policy and Public Affairs for Scotland, Marie Curie, Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
                [6 ]ISNI 0000 0004 1936 7988, GRID grid.4305.2, Usher Institute, University of Edinburgh, ; Edinburgh, Scotland, UK
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3056-059X
                Article
                490
                10.1186/s12904-019-0490-x
                6907353
                31829177
                4b2936c8-fe25-4e23-b26b-bc4b04a5a51c
                © The Author(s). 2019

                Open AccessThis article is distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons license, and indicate if changes were made. The Creative Commons Public Domain Dedication waiver ( http://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/) applies to the data made available in this article, unless otherwise stated.

                History
                : 10 March 2019
                : 15 November 2019
                Funding
                Funded by: Marie Curie
                Categories
                Research Article
                Custom metadata
                © The Author(s) 2019

                Anesthesiology & Pain management
                forecasts,projections,frailty,palliative care,place of death,care homes,nursing homes

                Comments

                Comment on this article

                scite_

                Similar content34

                Cited by18

                Most referenced authors397