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      A Decadal Prediction Case Study: Late Twentieth-Century North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content

      Author(s): , , , ,
      Publication date Created:
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      Journal: Journal of Climate
      Publisher: American Meteorological Society

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          A New Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Boundary Dataset for the Community Atmosphere Model

          James W Hurrell, James Hack, Dennis Shea … (2008)
          Article 0 comments Cited 408 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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            Advancing decadal-scale climate prediction in the North Atlantic sector.

            N S Keenlyside, M. Latif, J Jungclaus … (2008)
            The climate of the North Atlantic region exhibits fluctuations on decadal timescales that have large societal consequences. Prominent examples include hurricane activity in the Atlantic, and surface-temperature and rainfall variations over North America, Europe and northern Africa. Although these multidecadal variations are potentially predictable if the current state of the ocean is known, the lack of subsurface ocean observations that constrain this state has been a limiting factor for realizing the full skill potential of such predictions. Here we apply a simple approach-that uses only sea surface temperature (SST) observations-to partly overcome this difficulty and perform retrospective decadal predictions with a climate model. Skill is improved significantly relative to predictions made with incomplete knowledge of the ocean state, particularly in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific oceans. Thus these results point towards the possibility of routine decadal climate predictions. Using this method, and by considering both internal natural climate variations and projected future anthropogenic forcing, we make the following forecast: over the next decade, the current Atlantic meridional overturning circulation will weaken to its long-term mean; moreover, North Atlantic SST and European and North American surface temperatures will cool slightly, whereas tropical Pacific SST will remain almost unchanged. Our results suggest that global surface temperature may not increase over the next decade, as natural climate variations in the North Atlantic and tropical Pacific temporarily offset the projected anthropogenic warming.
            Article 0 comments Cited 293 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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              Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model.

              Doug M Smith, Stephen Cusack, Andrew Colman … (2007)
              Previous climate model projections of climate change accounted for external forcing from natural and anthropogenic sources but did not attempt to predict internally generated natural variability. We present a new modeling system that predicts both internal variability and externally forced changes and hence forecasts surface temperature with substantially improved skill throughout a decade, both globally and in many regions. Our system predicts that internal variability will partially offset the anthropogenic global warming signal for the next few years. However, climate will continue to warm, with at least half of the years after 2009 predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record.
              Article 0 comments Cited 293 times – based on 0 reviews     Review now
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                Title: Journal of Climate
                Abbreviated Title: J. Climate
                Publisher: American Meteorological Society
                ISSN (Print): 0894-8755
                ISSN (Electronic): 1520-0442
                Publication date Created: August 2012
                Publication date (Print): August 2012
                Volume: 25
                Issue: 15
                Pages: 5173-5189
                Article
                DOI: 10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00595.1
                SO-VID: 4b96a69a-2f99-47ca-8bb2-695c4afc288c
                Copyright © © 2012
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