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      Modelo dinámico de la pandemia de COVID19 Translated title: Dynamic model of COVID19 pandemic

      research-article
      Sanidad Militar
      Ministerio de Defensa
      COVID19, Pandemia, Modelos, Dinámica de Sistemas, COVID19, Pandemic, Models, Systems Dynamic

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          Abstract

          RESUMEN La pandemia de COVID19 está generando un empeño internacional por conocer los principales aspectos dinámicos que esta nueva crisis epidémica está provocando, por lo que en todo el mundo surgen gran cantidad de iniciativas en relación con el desarrollo de modelos matemáticos. El presente trabajo desarrolla un modelo de simulación dinámica basada en la técnica de Dinámica de Sistemas, bajo un enfoque de visión sistémica de la problemática social y sanitaria que plantea. Los resultados se han simulado respecto de la casuística de la Comunidad de Madrid. Se evidencia el tremendo problema que supone el colectivo de infectados no detectados, causa de la propagación de la epidemia, así como la evidencia de la dificultad técnica que supone la falta de fiabilidad de los datos oficiales, por esta razón.

          Translated abstract

          SUMMARY The COVID19 pandemic is generating an international effort to know the main dynamic aspects that this new epidemic crisis is causing, which is why a large number of initiatives are emerging around the world in relation to the development of mathematical models. The present work develops a dynamic simulation model based on the Systems Dynamics technique, under a systemic vision approach of the social and health problems it raises. The results have been simulated with respect to the casuistry of the Community of Madrid. The tremendous problem posed by the group of undetected infected, the cause of the spread of the epidemic, as well as the evidence of the technical difficulty posed by the lack of reliability of official data, for this reason, is evident.

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          Most cited references17

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          Industrial dynamics: a major breakthrough for decision makers

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              The limits to growth

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                Author and article information

                Journal
                sm
                Sanidad Militar
                Sanid. Mil.
                Ministerio de Defensa (Madrid, Madrid, Spain )
                1887-8571
                March 2021
                : 77
                : 1
                : 7-16
                Article
                S1887-85712021000100007 S1887-8571(21)07700100007
                10.4321/s1887-85712021000100002
                4b984795-b53b-46bc-9bc2-f97c68dafc00

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                History
                : 14 December 2020
                : 31 January 2021
                Page count
                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 20, Pages: 10
                Product

                SciELO Spain

                Categories
                Artículo Original

                Systems Dynamic,Pandemia,Modelos,Dinámica de Sistemas,COVID19,Pandemic,Models

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