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      The COVID-19 pandemic: theoretical scenarios of its socioeconomic impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean Translated title: A pandemia do Covid-19: cenários teóricos de seus impactos socioeconômicos na América Latina e no Caribe

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          Abstract

          ABSTRACT This paper provides some theoretical scenarios the socioeconomic impacts caused by the COVID-19 pandemic for the Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). To do so, after a brief literature review of previous pandemics, we use the macro and microeconomic theory, together with aggregated data, in order to provide expected implications of the COVID-19 pandemic for the LAC region. At a macroeconomic level, we explain how the COVID-19 shock is causing both aggregate supply and aggregate demand to reduce so plunging the region into a recession and why such a recession is dangerously harmful for the LAC economies. At a micro level, we describe why some enterprises would adapt to remain in the market or even growth; by contrast, some of them would leave the market in the short term. For the consumers, the impact of this sanitary crisis is related to the change in their preferences and household members’ relations due to extended quarantines.

          Translated abstract

          RESUMO Este artigo apresenta alguns cenários teóricos dos impactos socioeconômicos causados pela pandemia da Covid-19 na América Latina e no Caribe (ALC). Para isso, após uma breve revisão da literatura de pandemias anteriores, usamos a teoria macro e microeconômica, juntamente com dados agregados, a fim de fornecer implicações esperadas da pandemia de Covid-19 para a região da ALC. No nível macroeconômico, explicamos como o choque de Covid-19 está causando uma redução na oferta agregada e na demanda agregada, mergulhando a região em uma recessão, e por que essa recessão é perigosamente prejudicial para as economias da ALC. No nível micro, descrevemos por que algumas empresas se adaptariam para permanecer no mercado ou até para crescer; por outro lado, alguns deles sairiam do mercado no curto prazo. Para os consumidores, o impacto dessa crise sanitária está relacionado à mudança nas preferências e nas relações dos familiares devido a quarentenas prolongadas.

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          Most cited references 26

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          The epidemiological characteristics of an outbreak of 2019 novel coronavirus diseases (COVID-19) in China

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            Immune responses in COVID-19 and potential vaccines: Lessons learned from SARS and MERS epidemic

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              Chronic residential crowding and children's well-being: an ecological perspective.

              Chronic residential crowding is associated with difficulties in behavioral adjustment at school, poor academic achievement, heightened vulnerability to the induction of learned helplessness, elevated blood pressure, and impaired parent-child interpersonal relationships among a sample of working-class, 10-to 12-year-old children living in urban India. The significant main effects of residential crowding on blood pressure and learned helplessness are moderated by gender. Residential crowding is positively associated with blood pressure only among boys and with helplessness only among girls. All analyses statistically control for household income. We then demonstrate that perceived parent-child conflict functions as an underlying, intervening process that largely accounts for several correlates of household crowding among children.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                rep
                Brazilian Journal of Political Economy
                Brazil. J. Polit. Econ.
                Editora 34 (São Paulo, SP, Brazil )
                0101-3157
                1809-4538
                December 2020
                : 40
                : 4
                : 622-646
                Affiliations
                Quito Quito orgnameEscuela Politécnica Nacional orgdiv1Department of Quantitative Economics orgdiv2IDEA Research Group Ecuador cintya.lanchimba@ 123456epn.edu.ec
                Quito Quito orgnameEscuela Politécnica Nacional orgdiv1Department of Quantitative Economics orgdiv2IDEA Research Group Ecuador juan.diaz@ 123456epn.edu.ec
                Quito Quito orgnameEscuela Politécnica Nacional orgdiv1Department of Quantitative Economics orgdiv2IDEA Research Group Ecuador andrea.bonilla@ 123456epn.edu.ec
                Article
                S0101-31572020000400622 S0101-3157(20)04000400622
                10.1590/0101-31572020-3199

                This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

                Page count
                Figures: 0, Tables: 0, Equations: 0, References: 41, Pages: 25
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