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      State-level drivers of future fine particulate matter mortality in the United States

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          Abstract

          Future fine particulate matter (PM 2. 5) concentrations and resulting health impacts will be largely determined by factors such as energy use, fuel choices, emission controls, state and national policies, and demographcs. In this study, a human-earth system model is used to estimate PM 2.5 mortality costs (PMMC) due to air pollutant emissions from each US state over the period 2015 to 2050, considering current major air quality and energy regulations. Contributions of various socioeconomic and energy factors to PMMC are quantified using the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index. National PMMC are estimated to decrease 25% from 2015 to 2050, driven by decreases in energy intensity and PMMC per unit consumption of electric sector coal and transportation liquids. These factors together contribute 68% of the decrease, primarily from technology improvements and air quality regulations. States with greater population and economic growth, but with fewer clean energy resources, are more likely to face significant challenges in reducing future PMMC from their emissions. In contrast, states with larger projected decreases in PMMC have smaller increases in population and per capita GDP, and greater decreases in electric sector coal share and PMMC per unit fuel consumption.

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          Estimates and 25-year trends of the global burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution: an analysis of data from the Global Burden of Diseases Study 2015

          Summary Background Exposure to ambient air pollution increases morbidity and mortality, and is a leading contributor to global disease burden. We explored spatial and temporal trends in mortality and burden of disease attributable to ambient air pollution from 1990 to 2015 at global, regional, and country levels. Methods We estimated global population-weighted mean concentrations of particle mass with aerodynamic diameter less than 2·5 μm (PM2·5) and ozone at an approximate 11 km × 11 km resolution with satellite-based estimates, chemical transport models, and ground-level measurements. Using integrated exposure–response functions for each cause of death, we estimated the relative risk of mortality from ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lung cancer, and lower respiratory infections from epidemiological studies using non-linear exposure–response functions spanning the global range of exposure. Findings Ambient PM2·5 was the fifth-ranking mortality risk factor in 2015. Exposure to PM2·5 caused 4·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·7 million to 4·8 million) deaths and 103·1 million (90·8 million 115·1 million) disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2015, representing 7·6% of total global deaths and 4·2% of global DALYs, 59% of these in east and south Asia. Deaths attributable to ambient PM2·5 increased from 3·5 million (95% UI 3·0 million to 4·0 million) in 1990 to 4·2 million (3·7 million to 4·8 million) in 2015. Exposure to ozone caused an additional 254 000 (95% UI 97 000–422 000) deaths and a loss of 4·1 million (1·6 million to 6·8 million) DALYs from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in 2015. Interpretation Ambient air pollution contributed substantially to the global burden of disease in 2015, which increased over the past 25 years, due to population ageing, changes in non-communicable disease rates, and increasing air pollution in low-income and middle-income countries. Modest reductions in burden will occur in the most polluted countries unless PM2·5 values are decreased substantially, but there is potential for substantial health benefits from exposure reduction. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and Health Effects Institute.
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            The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

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              The contribution of outdoor air pollution sources to premature mortality on a global scale.

              Assessment of the global burden of disease is based on epidemiological cohort studies that connect premature mortality to a wide range of causes, including the long-term health impacts of ozone and fine particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micrometres (PM2.5). It has proved difficult to quantify premature mortality related to air pollution, notably in regions where air quality is not monitored, and also because the toxicity of particles from various sources may vary. Here we use a global atmospheric chemistry model to investigate the link between premature mortality and seven emission source categories in urban and rural environments. In accord with the global burden of disease for 2010 (ref. 5), we calculate that outdoor air pollution, mostly by PM2.5, leads to 3.3 (95 per cent confidence interval 1.61-4.81) million premature deaths per year worldwide, predominantly in Asia. We primarily assume that all particles are equally toxic, but also include a sensitivity study that accounts for differential toxicity. We find that emissions from residential energy use such as heating and cooking, prevalent in India and China, have the largest impact on premature mortality globally, being even more dominant if carbonaceous particles are assumed to be most toxic. Whereas in much of the USA and in a few other countries emissions from traffic and power generation are important, in eastern USA, Europe, Russia and East Asia agricultural emissions make the largest relative contribution to PM2.5, with the estimate of overall health impact depending on assumptions regarding particle toxicity. Model projections based on a business-as-usual emission scenario indicate that the contribution of outdoor air pollution to premature mortality could double by 2050.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                101295599
                36299
                Environ Res Lett
                Environ Res Lett
                Environmental research letters : ERL [Web site]
                1748-9326
                21 February 2020
                18 December 2019
                18 December 2020
                : 14
                : 12
                : 124071
                Affiliations
                [1 ]Oak Ridge Institute for Science and Education, United States of America
                [2 ]Center for Environmental Measurement and Modeling, US Environmental Protection Agency, RTP, NC, United States of America
                [3 ]Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, United States of America
                [4 ]Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States of America
                Author notes
                [5 ]Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed. Loughlin.Dan@ 123456epa.gov
                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1889-6218
                http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3248-5607
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5652-4987
                http://orcid.org/0000-0001-5224-9965
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5102-3507
                Article
                EPAPA1548194
                10.1088/1748-9326/ab59cb
                7055525
                32133038
                4ca661e8-6433-47b8-af01-20a075e8fa28

                Original content from this work may be used under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 licence.

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                energy,air quality management,health impacts,human-earth system model,air pollution,emission projection

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