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      The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on hospital utilisation in Sierra Leone

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          Abstract

          Introduction

          The COVID-19 pandemic has adversely affected health systems in many countries, but little is known about effects on health systems in sub-Saharan Africa. This study examines the effects of COVID-19 on hospital utilisation in a sub-Saharan country, Sierra Leone.

          Methods

          Mixed-methods study using longitudinal nationwide hospital data (admissions, operations, deliveries and referrals) and qualitative interviews with healthcare workers and patients. Hospital data were compared across quarters (Q) in 2020, with day 1 of Q2 representing the start of the pandemic in Sierra Leone. Admissions are reported in total and disaggregated by sex, service (surgical, medical, maternity and paediatric) and hospital type (government or private non-profit). Referrals in 2020 were compared with 2019 to assess whether any changes were the result of seasonality. Comparisons were performed using Student’s t-test. Qualitative data were analysed using thematic analysis.

          Results

          From Q1 to Q2, weekly mean hospital admissions decreased by 14.7% (p=0.005). Larger decreases were seen in male 18.8% than female 12.5% admissions. The largest decreases were in surgical admissions, a 49.8% decrease (p<0.001) and medical admissions, a 28.7% decrease (p=0.002). Paediatric and maternity admissions did not significantly change. Total operations decreased by 13.9% (p<0.001), while caesarean sections and facility-based deliveries showed significant increases: 12.7% (p=0.014) and 7.5% (p=0.03), respectively. In Q3, total admissions remained 13.2% lower (p<0.001) than Q1. Mean weekly referrals were lower in Q2 and Q3 of 2020 compared with 2019, suggesting findings were unlikely to be seasonal. Qualitative analysis identified both supply-side factors, prioritisation of essential services, introduction of COVID-19 services and pausing elective care, and demand-side factors, fear of nosocomial infection and financial hardship.

          Conclusion

          The study demonstrated a decrease in hospital utilisation during COVID-19, the decrease is less than reported in other countries during COVID-19 and less than reported during the Ebola epidemic.

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          Most cited references33

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          Elective surgery cancellations due to the COVID ‐19 pandemic: global predictive modelling to inform surgical recovery plans

          Background The COVID‐19 pandemic has disrupted routine hospital services globally. This study estimated the total number of adult elective operations that would be cancelled worldwide during the 12 weeks of peak disruption due to COVID‐19. Methods A global expert‐response study was conducted to elicit projections for the proportion of elective surgery that would be cancelled or postponed during the 12 weeks of peak disruption. A Bayesian beta‐regression model was used to estimate 12‐week cancellation rates for 190 countries. Elective surgical case‐mix data, stratified by specialty and indication (cancer versus benign surgery), was determined. This case‐mix was applied to country‐level surgical volumes. The 12‐week cancellation rates were then applied to these figures to calculate total cancelled operations. Results The best estimate was that 28,404,603 operations would be cancelled or postponed during the peak 12 weeks of disruption due to COVID‐19 (2,367,050 operations per week). Most would be operations for benign disease (90.2%, 25,638,922/28,404,603). The overall 12‐week cancellation rate would be 72.3%. Globally, 81.7% (25,638,921/31,378,062) of benign surgery, 37.7% (2,324,069/6,162,311) of cancer surgery, and 25.4% (441,611/1,735,483) of elective Caesarean sections would be cancelled or postponed. If countries increase their normal surgical volume by 20% post‐pandemic, it would take a median 45 weeks to clear the backlog of operations resulting from COVID‐19 disruption. Conclusions A very large number of operations will be cancelled or postponed due to disruption caused by COVID‐19. Governments should mitigate against this major burden on patients by developing recovery plans and implementing strategies to safely restore surgical activity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
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            Early estimates of the indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on maternal and child mortality in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

            Summary Background While the COVID-19 pandemic will increase mortality due to the virus, it is also likely to increase mortality indirectly. In this study, we estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths resulting from the potential disruption of health systems and decreased access to food. Methods We modelled three scenarios in which the coverage of essential maternal and child health interventions is reduced by 9·8–51·9% and the prevalence of wasting is increased by 10–50%. Although our scenarios are hypothetical, we sought to reflect real-world possibilities, given emerging reports of the supply-side and demand-side effects of the pandemic. We used the Lives Saved Tool to estimate the additional maternal and under-5 child deaths under each scenario, in 118 low-income and middle-income countries. We estimated additional deaths for a single month and extrapolated for 3 months, 6 months, and 12 months. Findings Our least severe scenario (coverage reductions of 9·8–18·5% and wasting increase of 10%) over 6 months would result in 253 500 additional child deaths and 12 200 additional maternal deaths. Our most severe scenario (coverage reductions of 39·3–51·9% and wasting increase of 50%) over 6 months would result in 1 157 000 additional child deaths and 56 700 additional maternal deaths. These additional deaths would represent an increase of 9·8–44·7% in under-5 child deaths per month, and an 8·3–38·6% increase in maternal deaths per month, across the 118 countries. Across our three scenarios, the reduced coverage of four childbirth interventions (parenteral administration of uterotonics, antibiotics, and anticonvulsants, and clean birth environments) would account for approximately 60% of additional maternal deaths. The increase in wasting prevalence would account for 18–23% of additional child deaths and reduced coverage of antibiotics for pneumonia and neonatal sepsis and of oral rehydration solution for diarrhoea would together account for around 41% of additional child deaths. Interpretation Our estimates are based on tentative assumptions and represent a wide range of outcomes. Nonetheless, they show that, if routine health care is disrupted and access to food is decreased (as a result of unavoidable shocks, health system collapse, or intentional choices made in responding to the pandemic), the increase in child and maternal deaths will be devastating. We hope these numbers add context as policy makers establish guidelines and allocate resources in the days and months to come. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Global Affairs Canada.
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              Impact of COVID-19 pandemic on utilisation of healthcare services: a systematic review

              Objectives To determine the extent and nature of changes in utilisation of healthcare services during COVID-19 pandemic. Design Systematic review. Eligibility Eligible studies compared utilisation of services during COVID-19 pandemic to at least one comparable period in prior years. Services included visits, admissions, diagnostics and therapeutics. Studies were excluded if from single centres or studied only patients with COVID-19. Data sources PubMed, Embase, Cochrane COVID-19 Study Register and preprints were searched, without language restrictions, until 10 August, using detailed searches with key concepts including COVID-19, health services and impact. Data analysis Risk of bias was assessed by adapting the Risk of Bias in Non-randomised Studies of Interventions tool, and a Cochrane Effective Practice and Organization of Care tool. Results were analysed using descriptive statistics, graphical figures and narrative synthesis. Outcome measures Primary outcome was change in service utilisation between prepandemic and pandemic periods. Secondary outcome was the change in proportions of users of healthcare services with milder or more severe illness (eg, triage scores). Results 3097 unique references were identified, and 81 studies across 20 countries included, reporting on >11 million services prepandemic and 6.9 million during pandemic. For the primary outcome, there were 143 estimates of changes, with a median 37% reduction in services overall (IQR −51% to −20%), comprising median reductions for visits of 42% (−53% to −32%), admissions 28% (−40% to −17%), diagnostics 31% (−53% to −24%) and for therapeutics 30% (−57% to −19%). Among 35 studies reporting secondary outcomes, there were 60 estimates, with 27 (45%) reporting larger reductions in utilisation among people with a milder spectrum of illness, and 33 (55%) reporting no difference. Conclusions Healthcare utilisation decreased by about a third during the pandemic, with considerable variation, and with greater reductions among people with less severe illness. While addressing unmet need remains a priority, studies of health impacts of reductions may help health systems reduce unnecessary care in the postpandemic recovery. PROSPERO registration number CRD42020203729.
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                Author and article information

                Journal
                BMJ Glob Health
                BMJ Glob Health
                bmjgh
                bmjgh
                BMJ Global Health
                BMJ Publishing Group (BMA House, Tavistock Square, London, WC1H 9JR )
                2059-7908
                2021
                11 October 2021
                11 October 2021
                : 6
                : 10
                : e005988
                Affiliations
                [1 ]34th Military Hospital , Wilberforce, Freetown, Sierra Leone
                [2 ]departmentCase Management Pillar , National COVID-19 Emergency Response Centre , Freetown, Sierra Leone
                [3 ]departmentSchool of Population Health and Environmental Sciences , King’s College London , London, UK
                [4 ]departmentInstitute of Clinical and Molecular Medicine , Norwegian University of Science and Technology , Trondheim, Norway
                [5 ]departmentDepartment of Surgery , St Olavs Hospital University Hospital in Trondheim , Trondheim, Norway
                [6 ]departmentKing's Centre for Global Health and Health Partnerships , King's College London School of Population Health and Environmental Sciences , London, UK
                [7 ]departmentInstitute of Applied Health Research , University of Birmingham , Birmingham, Birmingham, UK
                [8 ]Capacare , Freetown, Sierra Leone
                [9 ]departmentCollege of Medicine and Allied Health Sciences , University of Sierra Leone , Freetown, Western Area, Sierra Leone
                [10 ]departmentCentre for Global Surgery, Department of Global Health , Stellenbosch University , Stellenbosch, Western Cape, South Africa
                Author notes
                [Correspondence to ] Dr Daniel Youkee; daniel.youkee@ 123456kcl.ac.uk

                SS and DY are joint first authors.

                Author information
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-6943-0100
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1642-4110
                http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9609-4093
                Article
                bmjgh-2021-005988
                10.1136/bmjgh-2021-005988
                8506048
                34635552
                4de942f8-5624-4744-b7a4-a1ec98441df4
                © Author(s) (or their employer(s)) 2021. Re-use permitted under CC BY-NC. No commercial re-use. See rights and permissions. Published by BMJ.

                This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited, appropriate credit is given, any changes made indicated, and the use is non-commercial. See:  http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/.

                History
                : 12 April 2021
                : 29 June 2021
                Funding
                Funded by: National Institute of Health Research;
                Award ID: GHRU 16/136/54
                Categories
                Original Research
                1506
                2474
                Custom metadata
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                covid-19,viral haemorrhagic fevers,control strategies,health systems,public health

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