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      A public health approach to the impact of climate change on health in southern Africa: identifying priority modifiable risks

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          Abstract

          Anthropogenic climate change and anticipated adverse effects on human health as outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are taken as givens. A conceptual model for thinking about the spectrum of climate-related health risks ranging from distal and infrastructural to proximal and behavioural and their relation to the burden of disease pattern typical of sub-Saharan Africa is provided. The model provides a tool for identifying modifiable risk factors with a view to future research, specifically into the performance of interventions to reduce the impact of climate change.

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          Most cited references48

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          Climate change and human health: present and future risks.

          Anthony J McMichael, Rosalie Woodruff, Simon Hales (2006)
          There is near unanimous scientific consensus that greenhouse gas emissions generated by human activity will change Earth's climate. The recent (globally averaged) warming by 0.5 degrees C is partly attributable to such anthropogenic emissions. Climate change will affect human health in many ways-mostly adversely. Here, we summarise the epidemiological evidence of how climate variations and trends affect various health outcomes. We assess the little evidence there is that recent global warming has already affected some health outcomes. We review the published estimates of future health effects of climate change over coming decades. Research so far has mostly focused on thermal stress, extreme weather events, and infectious diseases, with some attention to estimates of future regional food yields and hunger prevalence. An emerging broader approach addresses a wider spectrum of health risks due to the social, demographic, and economic disruptions of climate change. Evidence and anticipation of adverse health effects will strengthen the case for pre-emptive policies, and will also guide priorities for planned adaptive strategies.
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            Climate change and extreme heat events.

            George Luber, Michael A. McGeehin (2008)
            The association between climate change and the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events is now well established. General circulation models of climate change predict that heatwaves will become more frequent and intense, especially in the higher latitudes, affecting large metropolitan areas that are not well adapted to them. Exposure to extreme heat is already a significant public health problem and the primary cause of weather-related mortality in the U.S. This article reviews major epidemiologic risk factors associated with mortality from extreme heat exposure and discusses future drivers of heat-related mortality, including a warming climate, the urban heat island effect, and an aging population. In addition, it considers critical areas of an effective public health response including heat response plans, the use of remote sensing and GIS methodologies, and the importance of effective communications strategies.
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              Climate and vectorborne diseases.

              Kenneth L Gage, Thomas Burkot, Rebecca Eisen … (2008)
              Climate change could significantly affect vectorborne disease in humans. Temperature, precipitation, humidity, and other climatic factors are known to affect the reproduction, development, behavior, and population dynamics of the arthropod vectors of these diseases. Climate also can affect the development of pathogens in vectors, as well as the population dynamics and ranges of the nonhuman vertebrate reservoirs of many vectorborne diseases. Whether climate changes increase or decrease the incidence of vectorborne diseases in humans will depend not only on the actual climatic conditions but also on local nonclimatic epidemiologic and ecologic factors. Predicting the relative impact of sustained climate change on vectorborne diseases is difficult and will require long-term studies that look not only at the effects of climate change but also at the contributions of other agents of global change such as increased trade and travel, demographic shifts, civil unrest, changes in land use, water availability, and other issues. Adapting to the effects of climate change will require the development of adequate response plans, enhancement of surveillance systems, and development of effective and locally appropriate strategies to control and prevent vectorborne diseases.
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                Author and article information

                Contributors
                J Myers: Role: ND
                T Young: Role: ND
                M Galloway: Role: ND
                P Manyike: Role: ND
                T Tucker: Role: ND
                Journal
                Journal ID (publisher): samj
                Title: SAMJ: South African Medical Journal
                Abbreviated Title: SAMJ, S. Afr. med. j.
                Publisher: Health and Medical Publishing Group (Cape Town )
                ISSN: 2078-5135
                Publication date (Print): November 2011
                Volume: 101
                Issue: 11
                Pages: 817-819
                Affiliations
                [1 ] University of Cape Town South Africa
                [2 ] University of Cape Town South Africa
                [3 ] Strategic Evaluation, Advisory & Development Consulting, Cape Town
                [4 ] Strategic Evaluation, Advisory & Development Consulting, Cape Town
                [5 ] Strategic Evaluation, Advisory & Development Consulting, Cape Town
                Article
                Publisher ID: S0256-95742011001100021
                SO-VID: 51a28805-406b-4159-9ac4-701edcef3940
                License:

                http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

                History
                Product

                SciELO South Africa

                Self URI (journal page): http://www.scielo.org.za/scielo.php?script=sci_serial&pid=0256-9574&lng=en
                Categories
                Subject: Health Care Sciences & Services
                Subject: Health Policy & Services
                Subject: Medical Ethics
                Subject: Medicine, General & Internal
                Subject: Medicine, Legal
                Subject: Medicine, Research & Experimental

                ScienceOpen disciplines: Social law,General medicine,Medicine,Internal medicine,Health & Social care,Public health
                Data availability:
                ScienceOpen disciplines: Social law, General medicine, Medicine, Internal medicine, Health & Social care, Public health

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